After starting the holiday-shortened week on a positive note yesterday, bonds are already circling the wagons and encountering some resistance. This doesn’t necessarily kill the notion of a supportive ceiling overhead, but it does confirm the broader, persistent reality: bonds will need a compelling reason for sustained improvement.  This could take the form of exceptional weakness in economic data, surprisingly tame inflation, or the seemingly impossible accomplishment of lowering Treasury issuance via fiscal policy. As for today, bonds are moving to the sidelines ahead of the 5yr Treasury auction.  There also looks to be some front-running of month-end rebalancing with risk parity trading hitting both stocks and bonds at 9:30am.

Florida offers various programs for first-time homebuyers, including down payment and closing cost assistance. The Florida Housing Finance Corporation (Florida Housing) is a key resource. Eligible buyers typically must not have owned a home in the past 3 years and meet income and purchase price limits, which vary by county. Key programs include the Florida First-Time Homebuyer Program and the Florida Hometown Heroes Loan Program (specifically for frontline workers). Down payment assistance can reach up to $10,000 or more, often structured as a second mortgage. Buyers must complete a HUD-approved homebuyer education course. Property values in Florida have seen significant increases in recent years, impacting affordability. In 2023, the median sales price for single-family homes statewide fluctuated around $400,000.

When getting a sense of what’s happening in the bond market, it’s frequently safe to ignore the last 2 hours of trading on Friday and the first 2 on Monday. When that logic is applied today, we found this morning’s 10am yields precisely in line with Friday’s 3pm levels and MBS doing just a bit better. There was just a bit of additional improvement after the Dallas Fed Survey.

This is the only day of the week without any major data or calendar event in the morning hours. Broader market focus remains on equities and earnings season, but Treasuries get quarterly refunding estimates at 3pm–something that can occasionally have a very noticeable impact.

I don’t know if the rumor is true that Webster’s is considering adding “Tariffied” to its dictionary, but the word certainly fits the climate. Capital markets staffs who have to set rates and prices have been wondering where President Trump’s tariff philosophy is coming from, given that the market volatility has increased hedge costs. The answer is Peter Navarro, and everyone hopes that his tariff strategy pays off for the United States in the long run and is better than his legal past. In the meantime, world financial markets are roiled impacting lenders and borrowers alike. You may not care what they do in places like Armenia, Russia, or Ukraine, but it is good for lenders to know what is going on in various financial markets and these three countries are among the 11 that are dropping the U.S. dollar in international transactions. Hope is not a strategy, but let’s hope that this doesn’t move into MBS demand. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Figure. Figure is shaking up the lending world with its five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Lenders, give your borrowers an experience they will rave about. On today’s hear an interview with STRATMOR Group’s Garth Graham on potential clouds looming on the warehouse bank side of things as IMBs continue to post quarterly losses.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders “Attention all Mortgage Innovators! Join us for the blueprint in cutting edge mortgage technology at the Mortgage Innovators Conference May 7 – 8 in Huntington Beach. Our Co-Chairs Kevin Peranio, PRMG, and Ike Suri, Funding Shield welcome all California MBA lender members free of charge! Texas MBA lender members and MISMO lender members also receive complimentary registrations! For non-lenders, you can use the coupon code MIC25-SALE to receive 25% off your registration through April 25th. Thank you to our Premier Sponsors Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) and ICE Mortgage Technology. This conference will not only cover technology and product innovations in mortgage, but we’re also featuring a session of private equity and venture capital companies discussing factors that go into investing in technology. Of course, we top it off with the best party in the industry: the Innovation Deck Party! Hosted dinner, bars, entertainment, and fantastic networking. See you in May!”