10 Sep, 2025

“Rob, I hate it when mom and dad fight. Will this Pulte/Bessent, FHFA/Treasury tussle impact mortgage rates?” Probably not; it hasn’t so far. Director Pulte is certainly in the news. Occupancy isn’t a partisan issue, right?! FHFA Director Pulte, who continues to point out potential fraud by Fed. Governor Lisa Cook (who a Federal judge ruled yesterday could stay in her post), has two close relatives who have declared the same owner-occupied status on two homes in two different states! Don’t blame me: read about it in CNBC and Reuters. “Mark and Julie Pulte, the father and stepmother of Bill Pulte, President Donald Trump’s appointee as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, since 2020 have claimed so-called ‘homestead exemptions’ for residences in wealthy neighborhoods in both Michigan and Florida…” What about news closer to regular lending? Chase launched some publicity with a limited-time “mortgage rate refinance sale.” The Chase promotion is on rate-and-term and cash-out refinances through Sunday, Sept. 21. Customers must lock in their refinancing rate during this period to earn the discount. How much of a discount? According to Chase, “Discounts will vary by mortgage product and location.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Indecomm. Streamlining operations with the genius blend of automation, AI, and services. Achieve practical digital transformation and real operational impact with Indecomm’s purpose-built mortgage solutions. Hear an interview with MCT’s Phil Rasori on shifting coverage in response to policy and economic changes, to the expansion of ARM and non-QM products, the growing role of AI in hedging and analytics, evolving tech freeing up staff for strategic work, and the rising demands placed on modern capital markets departments.)

3 Jun, 2025

My cat Myrtle never seemed to listen, but heard lots. LOs can hear the difference, when dealing with a borrower, between “What is your rate?” versus “Can you help me?” Hearing is important, listening even more so. “Rob, are you hearing that the industry is ‘conferenced out,’ especially at the national level? The MBA’s National Secondary was a few weeks ago, this week is the MBA’s Chairman’s event, next week and following weeks are more conferences at the state level. My employees want to attend, but is there really that much new? They aren’t cheap to travel to or register.” There are a lot of events, and each one has a slightly different flavor and different geographic scope. And price point. Ask the organizers and choose wisely. There are also workshops, which are more personal, and in today’s episode of Advisory Angle at 11AM PT, STRATMOR Group’s Garth Graham and Sue Woodard share key insights from their recent Consumer Direct Workshop in Chicago, highlighting how top lenders are responding to shifting consumer behavior and market challenges. Tune in for practical strategies and real-world examples to help optimize your direct-to-consumer approach and stay ahead of industry trends. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Hear an interview with Cotality’s Molly Boesel on what’s driving the recent rise in single-family rents, why high-end rentals are outpacing lower-end growth, and how local events, new supply, and regional dynamics are shaping rent trends across U.S. cities.)

2 Jun, 2025

New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data

It’s not that this morning’s ISM data failed to help the bond market. In fact, it accounted for the highest volume of the day and the lowest yields of the day. But those yields were seized as an opportunity for seller to do what they’d already showed up to do earlier in the day. Bottom line, we had a bit of excess strength at the end of last week due to month-end trading and now a bit of a reversal as the new month gets underway. Yields are still nearer the lower end of the recent range, which makes today’s modest correction all the less threatening. 

Econ Data / Events

S&P Manufacturing PMI

52.0 vs 52.3 f’cast

ISM Manufacturing

48.5 vs 49.5 f’cast, 48.7 prev

ISM Employment

46.8 vs 46.5 prev

ISM Prices

69.4 vs 70.2 f’cast

Market Movement Recap

10:03 AM Slightly weaker overnight, but recovering a bit after ISM data.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.425

01:20 PM More weakness into PM hours.  MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up almost 6bps at 4.463

05:09 PM Modest recovery into the close.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.446