31 May, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is undergoing a shift from its pandemic peak. Inventory is rising in many areas, offering more options for buyers. Price appreciation is slowing, and in some markets, prices are stabilizing or experiencing minor corrections. Mortgage rates remain elevated, impacting affordability and dampening demand.

Key facts and figures:

* Inventory levels are up significantly year-over-year in many metro areas, particularly in South Florida, but still historically low.
* Median sales prices show varying trends across the state, with some areas still seeing slight gains while others are experiencing declines.
* Days on market are increasing, indicating a slower sales pace.
* Investor activity is cooling due to higher borrowing costs and lower returns.
* Migration patterns, while still positive overall, are showing signs of normalization.
* Demand remains strong in certain niche markets and locations, particularly those with limited inventory and high desirability.
* Expert predictions suggest a continued period of moderation, with a balanced market favoring neither buyers nor sellers becoming more prevalent.
* Affordability continues to be a major challenge, especially for first-time homebuyers.
* Rising insurance costs and property taxes are impacting overall housing expenses.

30 May, 2025

The Florida home buying process involves several key steps, including pre-approval, property search, making an offer, inspections, appraisal, and closing. Inventory remains tight in many Florida markets. The median sale price of homes in Florida was around $400,000 as of late 2023, though this can vary significantly by region. Interest rates are a significant factor influencing affordability, impacting monthly mortgage payments. Property taxes and insurance costs are also notable expenses for Florida homeowners, often exceeding national averages due to hurricane risk. Buyers should factor in costs for homeowner’s insurance, flood insurance (if applicable), property taxes, and potential HOA fees. It is highly recommended to work with a licensed real estate agent and a qualified mortgage lender experienced in the Florida market.

30 May, 2025

“Rob, what are the odds that the MBA will set up a ‘Man Park’ at the big conference in Las Vegas in October?” Slim to none. The United States is an interesting place. We’re approaching the summer, and last week Steve Pruitt reminded me that New Jersey is pretty much the only place where land meeting water is called “the shore;” everywhere else it’s called “the beach.” (Yes, people in New Jersey can go to the beach, and there are shores even outside the Garden State… “Shore” is a generic term for the place where land meets water. Don’t argue.) As we approach summer, those of us in the United States find that we no longer have an AAA-rated government. (The rating agencies have pegged countries like Canada, Denmark, and Australia higher.) Affordability continues to be troubling, but the data seems clear that removing parking requirements and other zoning changes can make a big difference in urban affordability and it doesn’t even take that long… What worked in Minneapolis may work in Chicago and other cities. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Calque. Calque provides a binding backup offer on your borrower’s departing residence to clear the existing mortgage balance and closing costs in 48 business hours or less. And it costs less than other buy before you sell solutions. Hear an interview with attorney Brian Levy on the intersection of change chatter around the GSEs (Fannie and Freddie) and the Federal Reserve.) Software, Products, and Services for Lenders and Brokers

29 May, 2025

* **Florida’s Population Growth:** Continues, though potentially slowing slightly from pandemic peaks, driving demand. Expect long-term growth exceeding national averages.
* **Inventory Remains Tight:** Overall, housing inventory is still constrained compared to pre-pandemic levels, supporting prices. Specific regions have varied supply dynamics.
* **Interest Rate Sensitivity:** Higher interest rates impact affordability and sales volume. Cash buyers retain a competitive advantage.
* **Top Markets to Watch (Variable):** Markets like Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville have experienced strong growth, but future potential depends on factors like job creation and affordability. Emerging areas might offer higher returns, but also carry higher risk. Southwest Florida (Naples, Cape Coral) faces recovery challenges.
* **Rental Market Strength:** A strong rental market exists due to affordability constraints and in-migration. Investment in rental properties, including short-term rentals (subject to local regulations), remains viable in certain areas.
* **Affordability Concerns:** Increasing home prices and insurance costs create affordability challenges for many residents, impacting buyer demand.
* **Insurance Costs:** Rising property insurance premiums are a significant factor affecting property values and investment returns, particularly in coastal areas.
* **Economic Diversification:** Regions experiencing economic diversification and job growth outside of tourism are positioned for more sustainable real estate appreciation.

29 May, 2025

How about those junk emails that start off with, “I’m not going to waste your time.” It already wasted my time. Is it a waste of time paying attention to what government officials say, or schedules that they give? Trelix’s Brett Parker noted, “Last year some in the industry were saying, ‘Stay alive until ‘25’ but now it could be ‘Stay in the mix until ‘26’.” Last week, no sooner did FHFA Director Bill Pulte say that 2026 could very well be the year that serious strides are made toward privatizing Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (i.e., removing them from their 2008 conservatorship status) than a day or two later Donald Trump said that plans are underway. The “Oh, that’s just Trump being Trump” doesn’t quite fly in this case, given the Agencies role in the U.S. housing market and trillions of dollars of outstanding mortgage-backed securities. (More below.) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Calque. Calque provides a binding backup offer on your borrower’s departing residence to clear the existing mortgage balance and closing costs in 48 business hours or less. And it costs less than other buy before you sell solutions. Hear an interview with Closed Title’s Kaylin Edwards on being a young person in the industry, what it’s like working on the escrow side of things, and the latest in the title space.) Software, Products, and Services for Lenders and Brokers Join ICE today for its monthly Mortgage Monitor webinar where you’ll gain critical insights into U.S. housing and mortgage market trends. The information presented in this preeminent, widely attended monthly webinar is based on the most current data available from ICE’s vast mortgage, housing, and property data assets, including the largest servicer-contributed loan-level database in the industry. Learn how borrower demand, housing affordability, interest rates, available equity, and other factors may impact your lending strategies. Register for the complimentary webinar which will be hosted today from 2 – 3 p.m. ET.

28 May, 2025

* **Refinancing Goal:** Primarily to lower interest rates, reduce monthly payments, or shorten the loan term.
* **Key Factors:** Credit score, loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, current mortgage rate, and closing costs heavily influence savings.
* **Rate Environment:** Fluctuating interest rates are a major consideration; monitor trends for optimal timing.
* **Florida Market:** Higher property taxes and potential hurricane risk can impact lender decisions and rates.
* **Types of Refinances:** Rate-and-term (lower rate/different term), cash-out (access equity), streamline (easier qualification).
* **Closing Costs:** Typically 2%-5% of the loan amount; can be rolled into the loan or paid upfront.
* **Break-Even Point:** Calculate how long it takes for savings to offset refinancing costs.
* **Rule of Thumb:** Refinancing typically makes sense if you can lower your interest rate by at least 0.5%-1%.
* **Credit Score Impact:** Borrowers with scores above 740 generally get the best rates; lower scores lead to higher rates and fees.
* **LTV Impact:** Lower LTV (more equity) often results in better interest rates.
* **Common Refinance Reasons:** According to recent data, approximately 60% of homeowners refinance to lower their interest rate.
* **Florida Specifics:** Check with local lenders familiar with Florida’s unique insurance and property tax landscape.

28 May, 2025

After starting the holiday-shortened week on a positive note yesterday, bonds are already circling the wagons and encountering some resistance. This doesn’t necessarily kill the notion of a supportive ceiling overhead, but it does confirm the broader, persistent reality: bonds will need a compelling reason for sustained improvement.  This could take the form of exceptional weakness in economic data, surprisingly tame inflation, or the seemingly impossible accomplishment of lowering Treasury issuance via fiscal policy. As for today, bonds are moving to the sidelines ahead of the 5yr Treasury auction.  There also looks to be some front-running of month-end rebalancing with risk parity trading hitting both stocks and bonds at 9:30am.

27 May, 2025

Florida property values rely on accurate valuation for taxes, sales, and insurance. Common methods include market value, cost approach, and income capitalization. Market value, often used, compares a property to recent sales of similar properties; inaccuracies arise from dissimilar comparisons. The cost approach calculates the cost to rebuild, adjusted for depreciation, suitable for unique properties but prone to subjectivity in depreciation estimates. Income capitalization, applicable to income-generating properties, values based on potential net operating income; cap rates vary significantly across Florida markets (e.g., different rates for Miami-Dade vs. rural counties). Assessments directly impact property taxes, which are capped by Save Our Homes amendment; increases are limited to 3% annually or CPI change, whichever is lower, for homesteaded properties. Improper valuation leads to under or over taxation. Litigation regarding property valuations is prevalent, resulting in legal fees and potentially altered tax rolls. Homestead exemptions provide significant tax relief for primary residences. According to the Florida Department of Revenue, a reassessment of property values occurs annually in each county.

27 May, 2025

– Florida’s housing market shows signs of cooling after significant price appreciation during the pandemic.
– Inventory is increasing in many markets, providing more options for buyers.
– Interest rates remain elevated, impacting affordability. Mortgage rates hover around 7% (as of late 2023/early 2024).
– Population growth, while still positive, has slowed compared to previous years.
– Median home prices vary drastically across the state, with coastal areas being significantly more expensive than inland regions. Some markets have experienced price corrections of 5-10% in recent months.
– Insurance costs are a major concern, with premiums rising sharply due to increased hurricane risk and other factors. Some homeowners have seen rates double or triple.
– Property taxes are generally lower than in many other states but can vary widely by county and municipality.
– Tourism remains a strong economic driver, supporting the rental market.
– Investment opportunities exist in both long-term rentals and vacation rentals, but profitability depends on location, property type, and management strategy.
– Economic forecasts suggest continued, albeit slower, growth for Florida’s economy.

27 May, 2025

Last week’s overseas headlines raised questions about about a spillover from volatility in the Japanese bond market to US yields. At issue: attention-grabbing newswires regarding a surge in long-term Japanese yields. Now today, overnight headlines made for a decisive correction in Japanese yields–one that’s being credited for opening strength in Treasuries. Is it warranted?  Maybe… Whether it is or isn’t, the movement in Treasuries is insignificant  by comparison. Yields continue operating in the same range, although they are now arguably exiting the prevailing uptrend of the past few weeks.

As for the Japan effect, here’s the case being made for today:

That looks pretty compelling, but if we zoom out, we can see the much larger movements in JGBs (Japanese government bonds) having absolutely zero correlation with Treasuries. 

Bottom line: we’d take the Japan effect with a grain of salt–especially on a holiday-shortened week.