“Why do millennials think the government saved their lives? Because they are indebted to it forever.” Here in Colorado, the United States federal government owns more than a third of Colorado land. Quick, build subdivisions! But the federal government is in the news for another reason. Either I’m getting older, or these budget stalemates seem to come more often every year. Furloughed people don’t buy houses, some may not make their mortgage payments, and hundreds of thousands of federal employees will be furloughed if additional funding cannot be approved. Lenders are on alert, of course, and there are more details in the Capital Markets section below. Meanwhile, LOs are just trying to keep up on trends and in today’s Mortgage with Millennials at 1PM ET, sponsored by Tidalwave, the hosts sit down with Bradley Clerkin, Head of AI at ThoughtFocus, and Jayendran GS of Prudent AI, to explore how stronger data pipelines, compliance-ready models, and borrower-facing innovations are transforming underwriting, risk management, and the customer experience. And at 2PM ET, the hosts are joined by Liz Green and Michael Simmons on Mortgage Pros 411 to discuss appraisal trends. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Spring EQ, one of the nation’s leading non-bank home equity lenders, giving partners more ways to serve customers. Known for speed, service, and innovation, Spring EQ makes tapping into home equity easier. Hear a discussion between Robbie and Rob Chrisman about what lenders are seeing.)

Tomorrow is the 4th of July, the only time of the year Americans say the day and month in the correct order. We find ourselves in the traditional “dog days of summer” which refer to the hottest and most uncomfortable days typically occurring from July 3 to August 11 in the Northern Hemisphere. Did someone say “dog”? Thank you to David I. who sent along a story about how inflation shows up in the price of hot dogs at the yearly Coney Island display of gluttony. While President Trump continues to publicly berate Fed Chair Powell (but can’t fire him), it is important for lenders to remember that though the economic data is all backward looking, the economy is currently too strong to justify Fed rate cuts, given the inflation risk, or at least the volatility of tariff decisions. So, we sit. Besides, the bond market will move before the Fed. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Figure, which is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the banking, CU, home improvement, and (of course) IMB space embedding their technology, giving borrowers an experience they will rave about. Today’s has an interview with Optimal Blue’s Jeff McCarty on the growing importance of integrated, data-driven tools in secondary marketing to improve pricing precision, risk management, and efficiency, particularly as market volatility, product diversity, and AI adoption reshape the hedging and trading landscape.)

Florida mortgage rates are influenced by national trends but can vary slightly due to local market conditions. As of late 2023/early 2024, rates have been hovering around 7% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, after peaking above 8%. These higher rates significantly impact affordability; every 1% increase in mortgage rate reduces purchasing power by approximately 10%. Florida’s strong population growth and housing demand continue to put upward pressure on prices, even amidst higher interest rates. Despite cooling from pandemic highs, inventory remains tight in many Florida markets. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions are a key driver of mortgage rate fluctuations. For example, Fed rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation directly impact borrowing costs.

May Day… whether you celebrate today as “about” halfway between the Northern Hemisphere’s Spring equinox and Midsummer solstice associated with maypoles, or a day that commemorates the historic struggles and gains made by workers and the labor movement, mostly associated with communist Russia (which has never been our ally in 80 years), it’s up to you. So, let’s stick with the seasons. As we approach summer, many in the Western U.S. are gearing up for forest fires. Despite the growing threat of them, many Americans continue to move into high-risk areas. A LendingTree study found that 27 of the 29 metros with the highest wildfire risk had more people moving in than out, with Flagstaff, Arizona leading in both in-migration and out-migration, indicating high population turnover. Meanwhile, only Redding, California, and Wenatchee, Washington, experienced net population declines, and metros like Los Angeles and Fresno showed stable populations with modest net gains. With a lack of available homes in certain areas and certain price points, it is understandable: The rental vacancy rate ticked up to 7.1% in the first quarter, according to the Census Bureau. The homeownership rate was flat at 65.1%. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums and close more loans. Hear an interview with CreditXpert’s Mike Darne on ways lenders and originators can help borrowers improve their credit scores and qualify for more mortgage programs and products.)