6 Oct, 2025

Often the economy and general business trends are separate from management and business acumen. Like Block Buster, which at the high point had over 9,000 stores, Rite Aid had 5,000. Now it has… zero, despite people always needing drugs and toothpaste. Companies have to react to changing times… remember when CVS began locking its shelves to stop theft, and then made users add its app to help unlock them? The government shutdown is impacting lender’s business but is not impacting M&A news: Independent mortgage banks who need warehouse facilities are taking note that Fifth Third announced it will acquire Comerica in a $10.9 billion stock deal. It would create the nation’s ninth-largest bank… and could be the start of a long-anticipated consolidation among the bigger regional banks since there is an expectation that the Trump administration will look favorably on such deals. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50 percent cost savings with an industry leading 75 percent completion rate. Today’s features an interview with CHLA’s Taylor Stork on why FICO’s direct licensing pricing creates more options for consumers and lenders, but the mortgage industry should remain wary of FICO’s monopolistic pricing and practices.) Services, Products, Software, and Tools for Lenders and Brokers Las Vegas has a new icon: the Sphere. With its 580,000-square-foot LED exterior lighting up the Strip, it redefines what’s possible in entertainment and innovation. FirstClose™ has done the same for lending through its certified integration with Optimal Blue’s product, pricing, and eligibility (PPE) engine. By linking FirstClose’s advanced point-of-sale platform with Optimal Blue’s trusted pricing data, lenders can accelerate home equity closings from 45 days to 10 or fewer. The integration delivers a seamless borrower experience by combining real-time property data, eligibility insights, and precise loan pricing in one transparent, branded application journey. The result: faster approvals, stronger borrower trust, and more opportunities to serve the surging demand for home equity lines and second mortgages. Heading to Vegas for MBA Annual? Meet with the FirstClose team and see how we’re helping lenders achieve iconic results in home equity lending. Book your meeting here.

18 Sep, 2025

Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off

Of today’s Fed events (rate announcement, dot plot, and press conference), it was the dots that were most likely to cause the biggest reaction. That proved to be the case, but only for the 30 minutes leading up to Powell’s presser.  Bonds had already begun pushing back against the rally by the time Powell started fielding questions.  Several of his responses added fuel to the fire. In not so many words, Powell said the dots don’t mean the Fed is cutting twice more in 2024 and that the Fed will instead be taking things meeting by meeting as they digest incoming econ data. While that’s very standard for the Fed playbook, it didn’t convey the level of concern for the economy (bullish for rates) that the market was priced for.  The reversal seems extreme in the short term due to the dot-driven rally, but yields closed no higher than they did last Tuesday–2 days after the jobs report rally that took rates to their lowest levels since October. 

Econ Data / Events

Building Permits (Aug)

1.312M vs 1.37M f’cast, 1.362M prev

Housing starts number mm (Aug)

1.307M vs 1.37M f’cast, 1.428M prev

Market Movement Recap

09:48 AM Modestly stronger overnight and little-changed so far this morning.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.027

11:34 AM Just barely weaker now.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.035

02:06 PM Stronger after the dot plot.  MBS up just over an eighth and 10yr down 3.3bps at 3.998

02:40 PM MBS now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day. 10yr yields are up 2.3bps at 4.053

02:56 PM MBS now down a quarter point on the day and 10yr up 5bps at 4.08

17 Sep, 2025

Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off

Of today’s Fed events (rate announcement, dot plot, and press conference), it was the dots that were most likely to cause the biggest reaction. That proved to be the case, but only for the 30 minutes leading up to Powell’s presser.  Bonds had already begun pushing back against the rally by the time Powell started fielding questions.  Several of his responses added fuel to the fire. In not so many words, Powell said the dots don’t mean the Fed is cutting twice more in 2024 and that the Fed will instead be taking things meeting by meeting as they digest incoming econ data. While that’s very standard for the Fed playbook, it didn’t convey the level of concern for the economy (bullish for rates) that the market was priced for.  The reversal seems extreme in the short term due to the dot-driven rally, but yields closed no higher than they did last Tuesday–2 days after the jobs report rally that took rates to their lowest levels since October. 

Econ Data / Events

Building Permits (Aug)

1.312M vs 1.37M f’cast, 1.362M prev

Housing starts number mm (Aug)

1.307M vs 1.37M f’cast, 1.428M prev

Market Movement Recap

09:48 AM Modestly stronger overnight and little-changed so far this morning.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.027

11:34 AM Just barely weaker now.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.035

02:06 PM Stronger after the dot plot.  MBS up just over an eighth and 10yr down 3.3bps at 3.998

02:40 PM MBS now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day. 10yr yields are up 2.3bps at 4.053

02:56 PM MBS now down a quarter point on the day and 10yr up 5bps at 4.08

28 Aug, 2025

This morning’s economic calendar only looks robust on paper.  While quarterly GDP results in numerous line items, they’re not as important as they might sound. For instance, PCE prices are an important inflation index, but the version released with GDP applies to Q2 and is thus just revising already-released PCE data. Additionally, it is not capturing any of the July inflation that will be reported with tomorrow’s monthly PCE.  The same “stale” factor applies to everything in today’s GDP release (this is why GDP revisions don’t have nearly as much market movement potential as an initial release, which we won’t get until October). Jobless Claims data rarely has a big impact and today is no exception. While Continued Claims recovered slightly, it wasn’t a big enough bounce to be significant. Weekly claims continue to be boring.

Yields continue operating well within the post-NFP range, but with a friendlier trend since last week’s Jackson Hole speech.

25 Jul, 2025

Bonds were initially stronger, then weaker in the overnight session.  There was a bit of additional selling in the first hour, but none of it corresponded with the 8:30am Durable Goods data. Notably, the data was much weaker than expected.  This helps reinforce our lack of interest in this particular report as a potential market mover. Bigger volume followed a series of Trump comments just after 9am ET. Trump said he’s meeting with UK prime minister tonight, he doesn’t ever want a weaker dollar (incidentally, this is at odds with wanting rate cuts), he got the impression that Powell might be ready to lower rates, Powell is a very good man, most trade deals will be done by August 1, and that there’s a 50/50 chance of a trade deal with the EU.  Your guess is as good as ours as to which of those accounted for the volume spike and bond reversal, but the EU comment lined up the best.  Either way, movement has been too small to really care.

21 Jul, 2025

“Sometimes, someone unexpected comes into your life outta nowhere, makes your heart race, and changes you forever. We call those people cops. (Where did you think that was going?)” Lots of people want to know what to expect with interest rates and, surprisingly, pay some firms to predict the future. (Everyone out there is striving for business regardless of the direction of interest rates.) Here’s something for free: Morgan Stanley, for one, doesn’t see any Fed rate cuts until 2026. LOs can depend on interest rates for their livelihood: ongoing subdued mortgage originations are forcing mortgage brokers, and MLOs in general, to move beyond just agency originations to other loan products such as non-QM, home-equity, and investor financing. Such alternative offerings provide a lifeline to additional income avenues for originators. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Wholesale Mortgage Direct (WMD), whose mission is to deliver high demand, innovative products unique to the wholesale industry, including MyEQNow, which is one-of-a-kind TraDigital HELOC platform. WMD is your trusted partner for innovative HELOC, NonQM and/or Reverse options. Interview with ABL’s Kevin Rodman on how hard money lending has evolved, what innovations are shaping the future, and why private capital is gaining ground in today’s high-rate, high-stakes real estate market.) Products, Services, and Software for Lenders and Brokers “Your AI Command Center for HELOCs! NFTYDoor just launched its most powerful platform yet: an AI-powered HELOC experience built to help you move faster, communicate smarter, and scale with ease. 1-Minute Application: Whether it’s you or your borrower, get instant PreQual results… Some “Fast Pass” loans close in as little as same day. Built-In Chat + SMS. No more email chains. Instantly message our team or your borrower: everything in one place. Designed to Scale: Add your assistant, customize your notifications, and streamline how you manage your pipeline. This isn’t just a LOS. It’s your all-in-one task manager, communication hub, and real-time visibility engine. Built with transparency. Designed for maximum conversion. Now live on NFTYDoor: digital HELOCs made fast, simple, and profitable. Want to see it in action? Register for our live demo THIS Wednesday at 1pm ET.”