2 May, 2025

Fortunately for the readers of this Commentary, we don’t receive federal funding, so it won’t be cut… Unlike groups like NPR and PBS which the Trump Administration call “biased.” Most media have advertising as a source of funding, and speaking of ads, Mark Zuckerberg says ads will soon be handled entirely by AI. Doubt it. But for those interested in lending and artificial intelligence, “artificial” being the key word, here is a story about how high rates and low volumes are accelerating the Rise of AI-Enabled Mortgage Lenders. But technology isn’t going away, and is often a topic on today’s Last Word at 10AM PT, Brian Vieaux, Kevin Peranio, and Robbie Chrisman explore the impact of recent economic news and falling mortgage rates on the housing and lending markets. They’ll also reflect on key takeaways from the 109th tech-heavy TMBA Annual Conference and preview what’s ahead in the busy spring conference season. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums and close more loans. Hear an interview with Realfinity’s Kipper Bush on how embedded finance can empower real estate professionals with seamless mortgage solutions at the point of sale.) Software, Products, and Services for Lenders and Brokers Leading Lenders: Risk, Reward, and Reinvention dives into how industry leaders are embracing change, overcoming challenges, and driving innovation in today’s market. Produced by HousingWire in partnership with Polly, this exclusive docuseries showcases the people and platforms changing how pricing, automation, and strategy intersect. Each episode takes you inside a different lending organization to share their unique perspective on the industry and how they are raising the bar. Episode 1 features Kristin Ankeny Bickenbach of New American Funding, sharing how the company is leveraging strategic technology and automation to empower their loan officers and lead in a tightening mortgage landscape. NAF has redefined how loan officers engage with crucial parts of the mortgage process, including the lock desk, secondary marketing, and customer service. From intuitive pricing systems to high-touch lock desk support, NAF’s strategy prioritizes speed, accuracy, and adaptability while staying rooted in its people-first values. View episode!

2 May, 2025

Florida closing costs average 2-5% of the purchase price. Key cost drivers include lender fees (origination, appraisal, credit report), title-related expenses (title insurance, search, recording fees), and government taxes/fees (transfer taxes, documentary stamp taxes). Negotiating lender fees, comparing title insurance rates, and understanding regional variations (some counties have higher transfer taxes) are potential savings strategies. Selecting a closing date strategically, potentially aiming for the end of a month or quarter, can sometimes lead to lower costs. Florida’s documentary stamp tax is typically paid by the buyer on the mortgage amount. The seller usually pays for title insurance and documentary stamp tax on the deed, but this can be negotiated.

1 May, 2025

Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility

Today’s ISM Manufacturing data played the role of coalmine canary today, and although it’s not the most vigorous canary anyone’s ever seen, it also wasn’t dead. That wasn’t good for bonds today as ISM is viewed as a good early indicator at times when the market is waiting for a certain shoe to drop (in this case, tariff/policy/uncertainty impact on econ data). ISM is also often heavily traded due to its proximity to the big jobs report (in this case, the following morning). If nothing else, the market’s willingness to react to economic data once again is fully confirmed.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

241k vs 224k f’cast, 223k prev

Continued Claims

1916k vs 1860k f’cast, 1833k prev

ISM Manufacturing PMI

48.7 vs 48.0 f’cast

ISM Prices Paid

69.8 vs 70.3 f’cast, 69.4 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:33 AM MBS up just over an eighth and 10yr yields are down 3.5bps at 4.126 after claims data.

10:23 AM weaker after ISM.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.196

12:27 PM MBS now down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 6.7 bps at 4.227.

02:30 PM MBS now down a quarter point and 10yr up 7.7bps at 4.238

1 May, 2025

Florida home sales totaled 267,115 in 2023, a decrease of 16.3% from 2022. The median sales price for single-family homes statewide in 2023 was $405,000. Inventory levels increased, with a 3.5 months’ supply of single-family homes at the end of 2023. Mortgage rates significantly impacted affordability, averaging near 7% for much of the year. Popular areas include Miami, Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville, each with varying price points and market dynamics. Property taxes in Florida average around 0.98% of assessed value. Flood insurance is often required, particularly in coastal areas, adding to the overall cost of homeownership. First-time homebuyers should research available state and local assistance programs for down payment and closing cost assistance.

1 May, 2025

Renovating kitchens and bathrooms offers the highest ROI in Florida’s real estate market, potentially yielding a 60-80% return on investment. Energy-efficient upgrades, like solar panels and impact-resistant windows, increase home value and appeal, reducing energy bills and insurance costs. Landscaping projects with drought-resistant plants are cost-effective and enhance curb appeal. According to Zillow, homes with updated kitchens sell for 5% more than comparable homes. Swimming pools add significant value, particularly in South Florida, but require careful consideration of maintenance costs and potential liability. Investing in hurricane-resistant features is crucial for maximizing value and attracting buyers. Smart home technology integration is increasingly desirable among Florida homebuyers.

1 May, 2025

* **Inventory:** Florida’s housing inventory remains tight but is increasing in many markets compared to the lows of 2022. Months’ supply of inventory is still below historical averages indicating a seller’s market in many areas, although buyer leverage is improving.
* **Median Home Prices:** Median home prices in Florida have seen significant increases in recent years, peaking in 2022/early 2023. While some markets have experienced price corrections or stabilization, overall prices remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.
* **Interest Rates:** Rising mortgage interest rates are impacting affordability and dampening buyer demand. This is a major factor influencing the current market dynamics.
* **Sales Volume:** Closed sales have declined year-over-year in many Florida markets, reflecting the impact of higher interest rates and affordability challenges.
* **Population Growth:** Florida continues to experience population growth, which supports long-term demand for housing. However, migration patterns are shifting, with some areas experiencing slower growth than others.
* **Regional Variations:** Florida’s real estate market is highly localized. Conditions vary significantly between different cities and counties. Some areas may be more favorable for buyers, while others remain more advantageous for sellers.
* **Days on Market (DOM):** The average DOM is increasing, indicating that homes are staying on the market longer than in the peak of the market frenzy.
* **Foreclosure Rates:** Although still low, foreclosure rates in Florida are gradually increasing, but remain below pre-pandemic levels.
* **Rental Market:** Florida’s rental market is experiencing increased competition and potentially stabilizing or decreasing rents in some areas after significant increases in recent years.

1 May, 2025

* **Homestead Exemption:** Reduces taxable value by up to $50,000; requires primary residency by January 1st.
* **Save Our Homes Assessment Limitation:** Caps annual assessment increases at 3% or the Consumer Price Index (CPI), whichever is lower, for homesteaded properties.
* **Portability:** Allows homeowners to transfer up to $500,000 of accumulated Save Our Homes benefit to a new Florida residence, mitigating property tax increases upon relocation.
* **Additional Exemptions:** May be available for seniors, disabled persons, veterans, and surviving spouses.
* **Assessment Challenges:** Homeowners can challenge property appraisals they believe are inaccurate by filing a petition with the Value Adjustment Board (VAB) within 25 days of the Notice of Proposed Property Taxes (TRIM notice).
* **Property Tax Rate:** Florida’s average effective property tax rate is approximately 0.84%, varying by county and municipality.
* **Tax Bill Components:** Includes taxes for the county, school district, municipalities, and special districts.
* **Payment Options:** Discounts offered for early payment: 4% in November, 3% in December, 2% in January, 1% in February.
* **Tax Certificate Sales:** Unpaid property taxes result in tax certificate sales, where investors pay the taxes and earn interest. Homeowners risk losing their property if taxes remain unpaid.

1 May, 2025

Florida Vacation Home Buying Guide:

* **High demand:** Florida is a top vacation destination, with over 137.6 million visitors in 2022.
* **Strong rental potential:** Short-term rental income can offset ownership costs. Occupancy rates vary by location, with some areas exceeding 70%.
* **Property taxes:** Florida property taxes average around 0.97% of assessed value, but can vary by county.
* **Insurance costs:** Hurricane risk leads to higher insurance premiums.
* **Financing:** Mortgage rates for vacation homes may be slightly higher than primary residences. Down payments can be 20% or more.
* **Management fees:** If using a property manager, expect fees of 20-50% of rental income.
* **HOA fees:** Many communities have Homeowner Association (HOA) fees.
* **Popular locations:** Orlando (theme parks), Miami (beaches, nightlife), and the Gulf Coast (beaches) are popular vacation home locations.
* **Tax implications:** Rental income is taxable. Consult a tax professional regarding deductions for expenses.
* **Hidden costs:** Budget for maintenance, repairs, and property taxes.

1 May, 2025

Florida’s median home price in October 2023 was $405,000. The market is experiencing rising inventory, with a 27.7% increase year-over-year. Average days on market increased to 51 days. Popular areas include Tampa, Orlando, and Miami. Property taxes average around 0.97% of assessed value. Flood insurance is crucial in many areas, particularly coastal regions. The state has no state income tax, potentially attracting buyers. Common closing costs range from 2% to 5% of the purchase price. Understanding HOA rules and regulations is vital for many communities.

1 May, 2025

May Day… whether you celebrate today as “about” halfway between the Northern Hemisphere’s Spring equinox and Midsummer solstice associated with maypoles, or a day that commemorates the historic struggles and gains made by workers and the labor movement, mostly associated with communist Russia (which has never been our ally in 80 years), it’s up to you. So, let’s stick with the seasons. As we approach summer, many in the Western U.S. are gearing up for forest fires. Despite the growing threat of them, many Americans continue to move into high-risk areas. A LendingTree study found that 27 of the 29 metros with the highest wildfire risk had more people moving in than out, with Flagstaff, Arizona leading in both in-migration and out-migration, indicating high population turnover. Meanwhile, only Redding, California, and Wenatchee, Washington, experienced net population declines, and metros like Los Angeles and Fresno showed stable populations with modest net gains. With a lack of available homes in certain areas and certain price points, it is understandable: The rental vacancy rate ticked up to 7.1% in the first quarter, according to the Census Bureau. The homeownership rate was flat at 65.1%. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums and close more loans. Hear an interview with CreditXpert’s Mike Darne on ways lenders and originators can help borrowers improve their credit scores and qualify for more mortgage programs and products.)