4 Aug, 2025

How can we be on the waning days of summer already? Didn’t the school year just end? Here in Central Michigan at the Michigan Mortgage Lenders conference, and next week at the California MBA’s Western Secondary (with over 600 registered), an important topic is our Federal Reserve being in the crosshairs of the current president. One Federal Reserve District President resigned on Friday, rumored to be because of pressure. Is Jerome Powell right to ignore the clamoring? In the latest Thought Leadership piece, it is suggested that, “The irony is that in refusing to be the central banker everyone wants, Powell may be fulfilling the role the economy actually needs.” There is good news, however, in the abusive trigger lead front: H.R. 2808, the “Homeowners Privacy Protection Act,” is set to go before Trump. But it may not be the cure-all originators are hoping for. There are criteria (see below) so your legal team should read it before you stop advising clients to enroll in the “Do not call” list. (Today’s podcast can be found here and Sponsored by Total Expert, the purpose-built customer engagement platform trusted by hundreds of modern financial institutions. Total Expert turns customer data into actionable insights that help lenders engage and guide consumers through complex financial decisions. Hear an interview with Longbridge Financial’s Chris Mayer on HELOCs for seniors and how the mortgage industry can better serve aging homeowners.) Products, Services, and Software for Lenders and Brokers

3 Aug, 2025

Florida mortgage refinancing is influenced by national and local interest rate trends. As of late 2023/early 2024, rates remain elevated compared to pandemic lows, but forecasts suggest potential stabilization or slight decreases later in the year. Key factors influencing refinancing decisions include current mortgage rate compared to prevailing rates, homeowner’s credit score, loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, and financial goals (lower monthly payments, shorter loan term, cash-out refinance). A rule of thumb suggests refinancing if you can lower your interest rate by at least 0.5% to 1%. Florida’s housing market, with its unique insurance challenges, affects lender risk assessment and potentially refinance rates. Closing costs, typically 2-5% of the loan amount, should be factored into the break-even analysis.

2 Aug, 2025

Florida’s affordable housing crisis impacts homeownership significantly. Rising home prices, property taxes, and insurance costs contribute to the challenge.

* **Home Prices:** Florida saw significant home price appreciation in recent years, outpacing wage growth in many areas. Median home prices in some metro areas are significantly higher than the national median.
* **Wage Stagnation:** Wage growth has not kept pace with the rising cost of housing, making it difficult for low-to-moderate income families to save for a down payment and qualify for a mortgage.
* **Insurance Costs:** Florida’s property insurance market is unstable, with rising premiums impacting affordability for both homeowners and renters.
* **Limited Inventory:** A shortage of available housing units, particularly affordable options, exacerbates the problem, driving up prices and competition.
* **Property Taxes:** Florida’s property taxes, while having exemptions, can still be a significant expense for homeowners, especially in rapidly appreciating areas.
* **Impact:** A substantial percentage of Florida households are considered cost-burdened, spending more than 30% of their income on housing. This disproportionately affects minority households and those with lower incomes.
* **Potential Solutions:** Addressing the crisis requires a multi-pronged approach, including increasing housing supply, exploring financial assistance programs, promoting responsible lending practices, and addressing the insurance market instability.
* **Florida Housing Finance Corporation:** Offers programs to assist first-time homebuyers, however eligibility requirements and funding availability are factors.

1 Aug, 2025

Florida’s affordable housing crisis impacts millions, with 56% of renter households cost-burdened (paying over 30% of income on housing). The median home price in Florida is significantly higher than the national average, making homeownership inaccessible for many low-to-moderate income families. Florida Housing Finance Corporation (Florida Housing) offers programs like the Florida Hometown Heroes Loan Program providing down payment and closing cost assistance to frontline workers, up to $35,000. Another key program is the First-Time Homebuyer Program, providing below-market interest rate mortgages and down payment assistance. Sadowski Act funding, historically a significant source for affordable housing, has faced legislative challenges, with portions diverted to other priorities. Tax credits are essential, incentivizing developers to build affordable housing units; however, the demand significantly outweighs the supply. The state needs an estimated 86,000 additional affordable units. Addressing this requires multi-faceted solutions including increased funding, zoning reforms, and public-private partnerships.

1 Aug, 2025

Non-farm payrolls came in at 73k vs 110k, which is a pretty good thing for the bond market in and of itself.  But the bigger story is in the net revisions to the last 2 months. 139k reported in June became 19k.  147k reported last month was revised to 14k!  That means, on average, the last 2 NFPs were 126.5k lower. 

It completely reframes the current picture of the labor market in a way that argues for a rapid re-evaluation of Fed rate cut odds.  The market agrees. Fed Funds Rate (FFR) expectations are plummeting. 

2yr Treasury yields (more closely tied to FFR) are on fire–down more than 22bps!  That’s hot enough to warm up the rest of the yield curve with 10yr yields down more than 13bps at 4.239.

MBS are up half a point.  On a separate note, there’s a lot of unfortunate commentary on social media about revisions and the Fed being ‘too late’ in light of the revisions.  We’d note that in the past, when revisions like this have happened, the Fed has been quick to acknowledge and adjust.  September’s Fed meeting (and the next NFP that comes out 2 weeks prior) just became orders of magnitude more interesting than the Dos Equis guy.