Month: September 2025

19 Sep, 2025
Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Florida Real Estate: Is Now The Right Time To Buy Or Sell?

Florida’s real estate market is currently experiencing a shift. Inventory levels are rising in many metro areas, offering buyers more choices. Median home prices in Florida have seen significant increases in recent years, but price growth is slowing, and some areas are experiencing price reductions. Mortgage rates are elevated compared to recent years, impacting affordability for buyers. Sales volume is down year-over-year in many markets, indicating a cooling demand. Foreclosure rates are still relatively low but have begun to gradually increase from historic lows. The number of days properties stay on the market has increased, suggesting a less competitive environment than in the past. Population growth in Florida, while still positive, has moderated, potentially affecting long-term demand. Insurance costs remain a significant concern for Florida homeowners, impacting overall housing affordability and buyer decisions.

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19 Sep, 2025
Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Mortgage Refinance Demand Explodes, Then Rates Surge: Florida Homebuyers Beware

What a difference a week makes for mortgage application demand. As we noted last week, mortgage rates were already trending lower than those captured in the weekly survey numbers from MBA and Freddie Mac.  The expectation was that refinance activity would be surging in this week’s data.  That turns out to have been an understatement. For the first time in several years, we have to take our chart of MBA’s refinance applications all the way back to 2022 in order to provide context for the levels achieved this week.  Until now, September 2024 set the high water mark. That’s a whopping 58% increase in refi demand versus last week, and it’s 70% higher than the same week one year ago. The Purchase Index rose only 3%, but that leaves it near the best levels since early 2023. Overall applications were up 29.7%, the 2nd biggest jump since the last week of 2022, and in outright terms, application activity rose by the highest amount since July 2021! There are already clouds on the horizon, unfortunately.  On the same day these numbers were released, rates began moving sharply higher in response to this week’s Fed announcement (why?). The rate spike continued on Thursday in response to economic data.  All told, rates are easily back up to the highest levels since before the September 5th jobs report.  Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist noted “homeowners with larger loans jumped first, as the average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of our survey.”

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18 Sep, 2025
Jonathan Padron Home Buying

Florida First-Time Homebuyer? Unlock Your Sunshine State Dream Home Now!

Florida offers several programs to assist first-time homebuyers. Key programs include the Florida Housing Finance Corporation (Florida Housing) offerings, such as the Florida First-Time Homebuyer Program with down payment and closing cost assistance up to $10,000 via second mortgage options like the Florida Assist, HFA Preferred and HFA Advantage PLUS. Income and purchase price limits apply, varying by county. The maximum home purchase price ranges from approximately $420,000 to $600,000, with income limits typically falling between $80,000 to $140,000 depending on the county and program. Borrowers typically need a minimum credit score of 620-640. A first-time homebuyer is defined as someone who hasn’t owned a home in the past three years. Homebuyer education courses are often required. Property eligibility often includes single-family homes, townhouses, and condominiums.

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18 Sep, 2025
Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Prime Rate Drops to 7.25% Amid Fed Rate Cut Debate

JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of America, PNC Bank, N.A. and others announced a decrease in its prime lending rate to 7.25 percent, effective today, Sept. 18. As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the overnight Fed Funds rate by .250. Stephen Miran, who was sworn in just before the two-day policy meeting and is remaining a White House employee for the duration of his stint at the Fed (much to the concern of those wanting an independent Federal Reserve) was the lone dissent among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants, instead favoring a 50-basis-point reduction. Mr. Miran has echoed President Trump’s criticisms of the central bank and called for cheaper borrowing rates. “Rob, I heard a presenter saying that U.S. citizens are saving no money whatsoever. What are you hearing?” I would say that statement is misleading and sensationalist and generalized. Savings vary through different periods of our lives, and different classes save differently. The Fed has a nice graph showing that, aside from COVID when we were hoarding toilet paper and watching Tiger King five years ago, we’re around 5 percent, which is roughly where we’ve been historically. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by CreditXpert. The all-new credit optimization platform that helps you close more loans. CreditXpert is committed to making homeownership more accessible and affordable for ALL. Today’s features an interview with Indecomm’s Rajan Nair on the risks of falling behind in innovation, whether AG(entic)I hype distracts from present issues, and the growing concern over technology power being concentrated in the hands of a few.)

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18 Sep, 2025
Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Powell’s Presser Rattles Mortgage Rates: Florida Homebuyers, Prepare for Volatility

Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off

Of today’s Fed events (rate announcement, dot plot, and press conference), it was the dots that were most likely to cause the biggest reaction. That proved to be the case, but only for the 30 minutes leading up to Powell’s presser.  Bonds had already begun pushing back against the rally by the time Powell started fielding questions.  Several of his responses added fuel to the fire. In not so many words, Powell said the dots don’t mean the Fed is cutting twice more in 2024 and that the Fed will instead be taking things meeting by meeting as they digest incoming econ data. While that’s very standard for the Fed playbook, it didn’t convey the level of concern for the economy (bullish for rates) that the market was priced for.  The reversal seems extreme in the short term due to the dot-driven rally, but yields closed no higher than they did last Tuesday–2 days after the jobs report rally that took rates to their lowest levels since October. 

Econ Data / Events

Building Permits (Aug)

1.312M vs 1.37M f’cast, 1.362M prev

Housing starts number mm (Aug)

1.307M vs 1.37M f’cast, 1.428M prev

Market Movement Recap

09:48 AM Modestly stronger overnight and little-changed so far this morning.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.027

11:34 AM Just barely weaker now.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.035

02:06 PM Stronger after the dot plot.  MBS up just over an eighth and 10yr down 3.3bps at 3.998

02:40 PM MBS now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day. 10yr yields are up 2.3bps at 4.053

02:56 PM MBS now down a quarter point on the day and 10yr up 5bps at 4.08

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17 Sep, 2025
Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Powell’s Press Conference: Florida Mortgage Rates React to Fed’s Hawkish Stance

Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off

Of today’s Fed events (rate announcement, dot plot, and press conference), it was the dots that were most likely to cause the biggest reaction. That proved to be the case, but only for the 30 minutes leading up to Powell’s presser.  Bonds had already begun pushing back against the rally by the time Powell started fielding questions.  Several of his responses added fuel to the fire. In not so many words, Powell said the dots don’t mean the Fed is cutting twice more in 2024 and that the Fed will instead be taking things meeting by meeting as they digest incoming econ data. While that’s very standard for the Fed playbook, it didn’t convey the level of concern for the economy (bullish for rates) that the market was priced for.  The reversal seems extreme in the short term due to the dot-driven rally, but yields closed no higher than they did last Tuesday–2 days after the jobs report rally that took rates to their lowest levels since October. 

Econ Data / Events

Building Permits (Aug)

1.312M vs 1.37M f’cast, 1.362M prev

Housing starts number mm (Aug)

1.307M vs 1.37M f’cast, 1.428M prev

Market Movement Recap

09:48 AM Modestly stronger overnight and little-changed so far this morning.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.027

11:34 AM Just barely weaker now.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.035

02:06 PM Stronger after the dot plot.  MBS up just over an eighth and 10yr down 3.3bps at 3.998

02:40 PM MBS now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day. 10yr yields are up 2.3bps at 4.053

02:56 PM MBS now down a quarter point on the day and 10yr up 5bps at 4.08

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17 Sep, 2025
Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Fed Rate Cut: Florida Housing Market Impact and Mortgage Opportunities

Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen. In support of its goals, goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to maintain the to lower the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 4 to 4‑1/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

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17 Sep, 2025
Jonathan Padron Home Selling

Florida Property Values: What’s Your Home Really Worth Now?

Florida property values experienced significant fluctuations recently.

* Median home values soared during the pandemic, peaking in early 2023 in many areas.
* Some markets saw double-digit percentage increases year-over-year.
* Rising interest rates and increased inventory have cooled the market, leading to price stabilization or minor corrections in some areas.
* Property value variations exist greatly among different regions. Coastal properties tend to command higher values.
* The statewide median sales price for single-family homes in November 2023 was \$405,000 (Florida Realtors).
* Inventory levels continue to rise; months’ supply of inventory at 3.2 months in November 2023 (Florida Realtors).
* Market factors, such as new construction, demographics, and economic growth, impact local property values.
* Assessments for property taxes may lag behind current market values.
* Homeowner’s insurance costs in Florida are a significant factor impacting affordability and values.
* Flood risk influences property values, especially in coastal areas.

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17 Sep, 2025
Jonathan Padron Home Buying

Federal Funds Rate Cut: What it Means for Florida Homebuyers

Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen. In support of its goals, goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to maintain the to lower the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 4 to 4‑1/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

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17 Sep, 2025
Jonathan Padron Home Buying

Federal Funds Rate Cut: What it Means for Florida Homebuyers

Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen. In support of its goals, goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to maintain the to lower the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 4 to 4‑1/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

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