11 Oct, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is showing signs of cooling after a period of rapid growth.

* **Price deceleration:** Median home prices are still elevated but growing at a slower pace than in 2021-2022. Some markets are experiencing price corrections.
* **Inventory increase:** Housing inventory is rising across many Florida markets, offering buyers more choices and negotiating power.
* **Interest rate impact:** Higher mortgage interest rates are reducing affordability and dampening buyer demand. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits around 7%.
* **Migration trends:** While migration to Florida remains positive, it’s moderating compared to the surge seen during the pandemic.
* **Regional variations:** Market conditions vary significantly across Florida. Coastal areas and cities like Miami, Tampa, and Orlando generally have higher prices and more competition than inland areas.
* **Insurance costs:** Rising property insurance costs are a significant concern for Florida homeowners and potential buyers, particularly in coastal regions. Insurance rates can add hundreds or thousands of dollars to monthly housing expenses.
* **Investment considerations:** Investors should carefully evaluate potential rental income and property appreciation against carrying costs (mortgage, insurance, taxes, maintenance).
* **Months’ supply:** A balanced market has around 6 months of supply. Many Florida markets are still below this, favoring sellers, but the trend is moving towards a more balanced market.

11 Oct, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is showing signs of cooling after a period of rapid growth.

* **Price deceleration:** Median home prices are still elevated but growing at a slower pace than in 2021-2022. Some markets are experiencing price corrections.
* **Inventory increase:** Housing inventory is rising across many Florida markets, offering buyers more choices and negotiating power.
* **Interest rate impact:** Higher mortgage interest rates are reducing affordability and dampening buyer demand. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits around 7%.
* **Migration trends:** While migration to Florida remains positive, it’s moderating compared to the surge seen during the pandemic.
* **Regional variations:** Market conditions vary significantly across Florida. Coastal areas and cities like Miami, Tampa, and Orlando generally have higher prices and more competition than inland areas.
* **Insurance costs:** Rising property insurance costs are a significant concern for Florida homeowners and potential buyers, particularly in coastal regions. Insurance rates can add hundreds or thousands of dollars to monthly housing expenses.
* **Investment considerations:** Investors should carefully evaluate potential rental income and property appreciation against carrying costs (mortgage, insurance, taxes, maintenance).
* **Months’ supply:** A balanced market has around 6 months of supply. Many Florida markets are still below this, favoring sellers, but the trend is moving towards a more balanced market.

10 Oct, 2025

The stalemate & shutdown continue, all but eliminating the government release of economic news. Recall that the U.S. Treasury posted a $345 billion budget deficit in August, the largest monthly deficit of 2025 and the 2nd-worst August on record but helped by tariff revenue. This is up from July’s $291 billion deficit and has only been surpassed by last year’s $380 billion deficit. Government spending surged to $689 billion for the month. Through the first 11 months of FY2025, the U.S. deficit was up to $1.97 trillion, on track to be the 3rd-largest annual deficit in history, after 2020 and 2021. In other news, occupancy should not be a partisan issue, right? Letitiia James has been indicted for mortgage fraud. An attorney will tell you that “fraud” is difficult to prove (typically involving intent and knowledge), while critics are asking, “Why aren’t his three cabinet members being indicted for occupancy fraud as well,” or FHFA Director Bill Pulte’s father and stepmother who claimed dual homestead exemptions in Michigan and Florida. I am sure that the courts will sort things out; each case should stand on its own merits! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50 percent cost savings with an industry leading 75 percent completion rate. Today’s features an interview with Home Builders Institute’s Ed Brady on the home building climate, evolving workforce trends, trade misconceptions, and the strategic solutions needed to rebuild America.)

10 Oct, 2025

Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform

It’s not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the run up to a round of weekly Treasury auctions only to underperform when the auction cycle wraps up. That underperformance (or rather, Treasury outperformance) was on full display today with MBS losing about a quarter point while 5yr notes lost about half as much. While bonds are slightly closer to the weaker end of the recent range, they’re still very much inside it.

Market Movement Recap

09:25 AM Moderately weaker so far with 5.0 coupons down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields up 2.6bps at 4.143

11:45 AM flat since last update.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.136

01:04 PM Slightly weaker bond auction = slightly weaker response.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.146

10 Oct, 2025

Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform

It’s not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the run up to a round of weekly Treasury auctions only to underperform when the auction cycle wraps up. That underperformance (or rather, Treasury outperformance) was on full display today with MBS losing about a quarter point while 5yr notes lost about half as much. While bonds are slightly closer to the weaker end of the recent range, they’re still very much inside it.

Market Movement Recap

09:25 AM Moderately weaker so far with 5.0 coupons down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields up 2.6bps at 4.143

11:45 AM flat since last update.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.136

01:04 PM Slightly weaker bond auction = slightly weaker response.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.146

10 Oct, 2025

Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform

It’s not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the run up to a round of weekly Treasury auctions only to underperform when the auction cycle wraps up. That underperformance (or rather, Treasury outperformance) was on full display today with MBS losing about a quarter point while 5yr notes lost about half as much. While bonds are slightly closer to the weaker end of the recent range, they’re still very much inside it.

Market Movement Recap

09:25 AM Moderately weaker so far with 5.0 coupons down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields up 2.6bps at 4.143

11:45 AM flat since last update.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.136

01:04 PM Slightly weaker bond auction = slightly weaker response.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.146

10 Oct, 2025

Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform

It’s not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the run up to a round of weekly Treasury auctions only to underperform when the auction cycle wraps up. That underperformance (or rather, Treasury outperformance) was on full display today with MBS losing about a quarter point while 5yr notes lost about half as much. While bonds are slightly closer to the weaker end of the recent range, they’re still very much inside it.

Market Movement Recap

09:25 AM Moderately weaker so far with 5.0 coupons down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields up 2.6bps at 4.143

11:45 AM flat since last update.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.136

01:04 PM Slightly weaker bond auction = slightly weaker response.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.146

10 Oct, 2025

Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform

It’s not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the run up to a round of weekly Treasury auctions only to underperform when the auction cycle wraps up. That underperformance (or rather, Treasury outperformance) was on full display today with MBS losing about a quarter point while 5yr notes lost about half as much. While bonds are slightly closer to the weaker end of the recent range, they’re still very much inside it.

Market Movement Recap

09:25 AM Moderately weaker so far with 5.0 coupons down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields up 2.6bps at 4.143

11:45 AM flat since last update.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.136

01:04 PM Slightly weaker bond auction = slightly weaker response.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.146

10 Oct, 2025

Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform

It’s not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the run up to a round of weekly Treasury auctions only to underperform when the auction cycle wraps up. That underperformance (or rather, Treasury outperformance) was on full display today with MBS losing about a quarter point while 5yr notes lost about half as much. While bonds are slightly closer to the weaker end of the recent range, they’re still very much inside it.

Market Movement Recap

09:25 AM Moderately weaker so far with 5.0 coupons down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields up 2.6bps at 4.143

11:45 AM flat since last update.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.136

01:04 PM Slightly weaker bond auction = slightly weaker response.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.146

10 Oct, 2025

Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform

It’s not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the run up to a round of weekly Treasury auctions only to underperform when the auction cycle wraps up. That underperformance (or rather, Treasury outperformance) was on full display today with MBS losing about a quarter point while 5yr notes lost about half as much. While bonds are slightly closer to the weaker end of the recent range, they’re still very much inside it.

Market Movement Recap

09:25 AM Moderately weaker so far with 5.0 coupons down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields up 2.6bps at 4.143

11:45 AM flat since last update.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.136

01:04 PM Slightly weaker bond auction = slightly weaker response.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.146