27 Aug, 2025

I was today years old when I realized that the shovel was literally a groundbreaking invention. The best ads and marketing focus on rates and products, right? Wrong. From Florida, Todd P. reminds me of a powerful, memorable lending ad that doesn’t even mention words like mortgage or loan or technology or lending. What message are you sending to potential clients? Loan officers are intent on offering the right products, service, and pricing to clients (read the piece on optimism below), but there is a lot going on “out there” that is impacting the psychology of borrowers. Beginning on Friday, all international merchandise headed to U.S. customers’ doors, assuming that countries are shipping it to us, will be subject to the overall tariff rate that their country of origin has been slapped with, or close to it, meaning pretty much any good your client orders could cost them at least 10 percent more than it does now. And in a mix of technology news, a bank fired a set of workers, and then rehired them after it was determined that the chatbot was terrible at its job. Go figure. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Arrive Home. Arrive Home, now serving six of the nation’s top 10 mortgage lenders, helps mortgage lenders connect creditworthy buyers with down payment assistance and affordable homeownership solutions. Hear an interview with Experian’s Alison Bird and Joy Mina on how streamlining the verification process helps lenders serve more borrowers without sacrificing accuracy.)

26 Aug, 2025

* **Interest Rates:** Mortgage rates remain elevated, impacting affordability. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hovers around 7% (as of late 2023/early 2024), significantly higher than rates seen in the past few years.
* **Inventory:** Housing inventory in Florida is increasing in some markets, giving buyers more options and potentially slowing price growth. However, inventory is still low compared to historical averages in many areas.
* **Price Trends:** While prices have cooled from their peak in 2022, they remain higher than pre-pandemic levels. Price appreciation is slowing down, and some areas are experiencing price corrections.
* **Market Variations:** Florida’s real estate market is highly localized. Coastal areas and major metropolitan areas often experience different trends than inland or rural regions. Demand remains high in some popular locations.
* **Economic Factors:** Florida’s strong population growth and job market continue to support housing demand. However, concerns about insurance costs and property taxes are impacting affordability for some buyers.
* **Days on Market:** Homes are staying on the market longer compared to the peak of the pandemic-era buying frenzy. This indicates a shift towards a more balanced market.
* **Sales Volume:** Overall sales volume has decreased compared to 2021 and 2022, reflecting the impact of higher interest rates and affordability challenges.
* **Foreclosure Rates:** Florida currently has a foreclosure rate that is slightly higher than the national average.

26 Aug, 2025

* **Myth: 20% Down Payment Required:** 78% of first-time homebuyers put less than 20% down (NAR). FHA loans allow as little as 3.5% down.
* **Myth: Need Perfect Credit:** While a higher score yields better rates, FHA loans can be obtained with scores as low as 500-580. Median credit score for approved mortgages in 2023 was around 740 (Experian).
* **Myth: Pre-Approval Guarantees a Loan:** Pre-approval indicates potential qualification, but final approval depends on appraisal, title check, and continued financial stability.
* **Myth: Fixed-Rate Mortgages Are Always Best:** Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) can offer lower initial rates, beneficial if planning to move or refinance soon. Consider the risk of rate increases.
* **Myth: Mortgage Rates Are the Only Cost:** Closing costs in Florida average 2-5% of the loan amount. Factor in property taxes, homeowner’s insurance, and potential HOA fees.
* **Myth: Only Banks Offer Mortgages:** Credit unions, online lenders, and mortgage brokers are viable alternatives often offering competitive rates and terms.
* **Myth: Refinancing Is Only for Lower Rates:** Refinancing can shorten loan terms, switch from ARM to fixed-rate, or tap into home equity.

26 Aug, 2025

Focusing only production MBS coupons and longer-term Treasuries, the bond market is off to another slow, sideways start today with minimal change versus yesterday.  With all of this morning’s data now reported, we’ve seen no measurable impact on bonds.  The overnight session was a different story but not due to econ data.  Rather, bonds responded to Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Cook (a process that is more complicated than it sounds) with a steepening of the yield curve (2yr yields moved lower versus 10yr yields). The steepening is consistent with the view that Cook’s replacement would be that much more supportive of an aggressive rate cut outlook (2yr Treasuries have more in common with the Fed Funds Rate than 10yr Treasuries). This isn’t a major shift in the bigger picture and it remains to be seen how Cook’s firing will actually play out.

25 Aug, 2025

– Professional real estate photography can increase listing prices by up to 47% and reduce time on market by 32%.
– Listings with professional photos receive 61% more views online.
– Homes with high-quality images sell an average of $3,000-$11,000 more.
– 90% of home buyers search online during their home buying process.
– Homes with professional photos sell 50% faster.
– Properties photographed with DSLR cameras get 139% more clicks than listings using point-and-shoot cameras.
– Staged homes with professional photos yield the highest ROI (Return On Investment).
– Drone photography and videography showcasing waterfront properties or large estates enhance appeal.
– Bright, well-lit photos are crucial, considering Florida’s abundant sunshine.
– Emphasizing features like pools, outdoor living spaces, and unique architectural details specific to Florida homes is essential.

25 Aug, 2025

Last week may have ended on a high note with bonds rallying on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, but perception was better than reality at the time. The reality was/is that Friday’s rally merely reinforced the trading range that has been ongoing since the August 1st jobs report. At the present pace and considering the econ calendar in the week ahead, we could be waiting for next jobs report before seeing a meaningful challenge to that range (roughly 4.20-4.35 in 10yr yields). This week’s key event is Friday’s PCE inflation. Even if it doesn’t tend to move markets as much as other reports, it’s important confirmation.  It’s also worth more to the Fed when it comes to making a September rate cut decision. 

24 Aug, 2025

Florida home affordability is increasingly challenging. The median home price in Florida reached approximately $407,000 in early 2024, considerably higher than the national median. Cities like Miami, Naples, and Sarasota are among the least affordable, with significant premiums over the state average. Rising property insurance costs significantly impact overall affordability, often exceeding $6,000 annually for a typical homeowner in certain areas. The state’s population growth continues to fuel demand, exacerbating the affordability crisis. Inventory remains relatively low in many markets, creating competitive bidding scenarios. Income growth in Florida has not kept pace with housing price appreciation, creating a substantial affordability gap. First-time homebuyers face significant hurdles, needing larger down payments and higher qualifying incomes. Certain areas in Central and Northern Florida offer relatively more affordable options, but still face increasing costs. Property taxes, while lower than some states, contribute to the overall cost of homeownership.

23 Aug, 2025

Florida mortgage refinance can be beneficial, but careful consideration is crucial. As of late 2023 and early 2024, mortgage rates remain elevated compared to historical lows of 2020-2021, impacting the immediate savings potential. Key factors to consider include:

* **Interest Rate Differential:** A general rule of thumb is refinancing is worth considering if you can lower your interest rate by at least 0.5% to 1%. Current average 30-year fixed mortgage rates are fluctuating; compare these to your current rate.
* **Break-Even Point:** Calculate how long it will take to recoup closing costs (typically 2-5% of the loan amount) through lower monthly payments.
* **Loan Term:** Refinancing to a shorter term (e.g., 15-year vs. 30-year) reduces total interest paid but increases monthly payments.
* **Cash-Out Refinance:** Using equity for debt consolidation or home improvements can be advantageous but increases the loan amount and therefore interest paid. Florida’s homestead laws may offer protection from certain creditors, an important consideration for cash-out refinances.
* **Credit Score Impact:** A higher credit score generally results in better interest rates.
* **Florida-Specific Considerations:** Property taxes and insurance costs in Florida are significant factors affecting overall housing expenses and should be included in refinance calculations.
* **Florida’s housing market conditions:** Understand the impact of the current market on your home’s appraised value. A higher appraised value may lead to better refinancing terms.

22 Aug, 2025

– Florida’s housing market is currently experiencing a shift, with inventory rising and price growth slowing.

– Mortgage rates are significantly impacting affordability, reaching levels not seen in years (hovering in the 6-7% range in late 2023/early 2024).

– Demand remains relatively strong due to population growth and migration to Florida, particularly from those seeking warmer weather and lower taxes, which helps keep the market buoyant.

– Property taxes and homeowner’s insurance are significant costs in Florida, especially in coastal areas prone to hurricanes. Insurance rates can be several thousand dollars annually.

– Competition varies by location. Some areas, like parts of South Florida, remain highly competitive, while others offer more negotiation opportunities.

– All-cash offers can still have an advantage, especially in competitive markets.

– First-time homebuyers and those with limited budgets may face challenges due to high prices and interest rates, making careful budgeting and exploring available assistance programs critical.

– Investing in energy-efficient upgrades can lead to long-term cost savings and potentially qualify for tax credits.

22 Aug, 2025

Today’s Jackson Hole speech gave Fed Chair Powell an opportunity to adjust his stance in light of much weaker jobs report that came out 2 days after the last Fed meeting. Powell had quite a bit to say, but the only thing the market really needed hear in order to facilitate a reaction was that the balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy. A close second was that tariff-driven inflation was unlikely to be a lasting dynamic given the downside risks to the labor market. Bonds rallied instantly on the release of the speech with short-term yields logically leading the way (due to their closer connection to Fed rate expectations). September rate cut odds moved back to the 90%+ levels seen earlier this week. 10yr yields are back in the middle of their August range and MBS are back near 2025’s highs.