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10 Oct, 2025

Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform

It’s not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the run up to a round of weekly Treasury auctions only to underperform when the auction cycle wraps up. That underperformance (or rather, Treasury outperformance) was on full display today with MBS losing about a quarter point while 5yr notes lost about half as much. While bonds are slightly closer to the weaker end of the recent range, they’re still very much inside it.

Market Movement Recap

09:25 AM Moderately weaker so far with 5.0 coupons down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields up 2.6bps at 4.143

11:45 AM flat since last update.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.136

01:04 PM Slightly weaker bond auction = slightly weaker response.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.146

9 Oct, 2025

Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform

It’s not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the run up to a round of weekly Treasury auctions only to underperform when the auction cycle wraps up. That underperformance (or rather, Treasury outperformance) was on full display today with MBS losing about a quarter point while 5yr notes lost about half as much. While bonds are slightly closer to the weaker end of the recent range, they’re still very much inside it.

Market Movement Recap

09:25 AM Moderately weaker so far with 5.0 coupons down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields up 2.6bps at 4.143

11:45 AM flat since last update.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.136

01:04 PM Slightly weaker bond auction = slightly weaker response.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.146

9 Oct, 2025

It’s getting pretty tough to weave an interesting narrative on mortgage rates over the past 3 weeks. During that time, they just haven’t changed that much for the average lender. Today was just another day in that regard. Bonds (which dictate day to day movement in rates) were slightly weaker than yesterday. This implies slightly higher mortgage rates and, indeed, today was no exception. But the important points are as follows:
bond market movement has been relatively small on any given day
winning and losing days have been in relatively equal supply
Bottom line: today’s losses leave the average rate easily inside the narrow prevailing range.

9 Oct, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is currently exhibiting mixed signals.

* **Rising Inventory:** Housing inventory has increased significantly in many Florida markets compared to 2022 and 2023, giving buyers more options.
* **Slowing Price Appreciation:** Price growth has decelerated considerably, and some areas are experiencing price corrections or declines, particularly in previously overheated markets.
* **High Interest Rates:** Mortgage rates remain elevated, impacting affordability and dampening buyer demand.
* **Increased Days on Market:** Homes are staying on the market longer, signaling a shift towards a more balanced market favoring buyers.
* **Regional Variations:** The market varies significantly by region. Coastal areas and those popular with remote workers saw the most drastic price increases during the pandemic, thus the most price corrections.
* **Florida’s Population Growth:** Continued population growth is still a driver of housing demand in the long term.
* **Insurance Costs:** High and rising property insurance costs remain a significant factor affecting affordability for Florida homeowners.
* **Foreclosure Rates**: Foreclosure rates remain low compared to historical averages, but have begun slowly creeping upward.

9 Oct, 2025

“Two lawyers walk into a pub. They order a couple of drinks and take subs out of their brief cases. They begin to eat. Seeing this, the angry pub owner exclaims, ‘Excuse me but you cannot eat your own sandwiches in here!’ The two look at each other, shrug, then exchange sandwiches.” Legal news leads off the Commentary today as Optimal Blue and nearly 30 originators were hit with a lawsuit alleging price collusion impacting millions of borrowers, noting these lenders’ spreads were 2.68bps (49.2 percent somehow) higher than others and that mortgage payments surged 54 percent from 2022 to 2025. “The sooner you fall behind, the more time you’ll have to catch up.” For originators who don’t want to fall behind, yesterday’s Commentary discussed the countdown to Halloween, and thank you to Rate’s Jennifer N. who wrote, “In the mortgage world, Halloween is celebrated by Licensing and Compliance folks as, ‘Renewal Eve’ as NMLS opens the renewal window on November 1. All licensees should make sure their CE is done before then so they can renew ASAP and avoid lapses in licensure!” While we’re on rules and regulations, do the number of working IRS employees correlate with the chances of being audited? Some hope so, as 50 percent of IRS employees are expected to be furloughed. The shutdown will be a topic on today’s “The Big Picture” at 3PM ET features Meredith Whitney, “The Oracle of Wall Street,” of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group. She will discuss “Stuck in Place” dynamics, CRE stress, and whether policy can help unlock supply. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50 percent cost savings with an industry leading 75 percent completion rate. Today’s features an interview with Cotality’s Thom Malone on home price trends across various regions of America and what that portends for affordability as we move towards 2026.)

9 Oct, 2025

“Two lawyers walk into a pub. They order a couple of drinks and take subs out of their brief cases. They begin to eat. Seeing this, the angry pub owner exclaims, ‘Excuse me but you cannot eat your own sandwiches in here!’ The two look at each other, shrug, then exchange sandwiches.” Legal news leads off the Commentary today as Optimal Blue and nearly 30 originators were hit with a lawsuit alleging price collusion impacting millions of borrowers, noting these lenders’ spreads were 2.68bps (49.2 percent somehow) higher than others and that mortgage payments surged 54 percent from 2022 to 2025. “The sooner you fall behind, the more time you’ll have to catch up.” For originators who don’t want to fall behind, yesterday’s Commentary discussed the countdown to Halloween, and thank you to Rate’s Jennifer N. who wrote, “In the mortgage world, Halloween is celebrated by Licensing and Compliance folks as, ‘Renewal Eve’ as NMLS opens the renewal window on November 1. All licensees should make sure their CE is done before then so they can renew ASAP and avoid lapses in licensure!” While we’re on rules and regulations, do the number of working IRS employees correlate with the chances of being audited? Some hope so, as 50 percent of IRS employees are expected to be furloughed. The shutdown will be a topic on today’s “The Big Picture” at 3PM ET features Meredith Whitney, “The Oracle of Wall Street,” of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group. She will discuss “Stuck in Place” dynamics, CRE stress, and whether policy can help unlock supply. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50 percent cost savings with an industry leading 75 percent completion rate. Today’s features an interview with Cotality’s Thom Malone on home price trends across various regions of America and what that portends for affordability as we move towards 2026.)

9 Oct, 2025

“Two lawyers walk into a pub. They order a couple of drinks and take subs out of their brief cases. They begin to eat. Seeing this, the angry pub owner exclaims, ‘Excuse me but you cannot eat your own sandwiches in here!’ The two look at each other, shrug, then exchange sandwiches.” Legal news leads off the Commentary today as Optimal Blue and nearly 30 originators were hit with a lawsuit alleging price collusion impacting millions of borrowers, noting these lenders’ spreads were 2.68bps (49.2 percent somehow) higher than others and that mortgage payments surged 54 percent from 2022 to 2025. “The sooner you fall behind, the more time you’ll have to catch up.” For originators who don’t want to fall behind, yesterday’s Commentary discussed the countdown to Halloween, and thank you to Rate’s Jennifer N. who wrote, “In the mortgage world, Halloween is celebrated by Licensing and Compliance folks as, ‘Renewal Eve’ as NMLS opens the renewal window on November 1. All licensees should make sure their CE is done before then so they can renew ASAP and avoid lapses in licensure!” While we’re on rules and regulations, do the number of working IRS employees correlate with the chances of being audited? Some hope so, as 50 percent of IRS employees are expected to be furloughed. The shutdown will be a topic on today’s “The Big Picture” at 3PM ET features Meredith Whitney, “The Oracle of Wall Street,” of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group. She will discuss “Stuck in Place” dynamics, CRE stress, and whether policy can help unlock supply. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50 percent cost savings with an industry leading 75 percent completion rate. Today’s features an interview with Cotality’s Thom Malone on home price trends across various regions of America and what that portends for affordability as we move towards 2026.)

9 Oct, 2025

“Two lawyers walk into a pub. They order a couple of drinks and take subs out of their brief cases. They begin to eat. Seeing this, the angry pub owner exclaims, ‘Excuse me but you cannot eat your own sandwiches in here!’ The two look at each other, shrug, then exchange sandwiches.” Legal news leads off the Commentary today as Optimal Blue and nearly 30 originators were hit with a lawsuit alleging price collusion impacting millions of borrowers, noting these lenders’ spreads were 2.68bps (49.2 percent somehow) higher than others and that mortgage payments surged 54 percent from 2022 to 2025. “The sooner you fall behind, the more time you’ll have to catch up.” For originators who don’t want to fall behind, yesterday’s Commentary discussed the countdown to Halloween, and thank you to Rate’s Jennifer N. who wrote, “In the mortgage world, Halloween is celebrated by Licensing and Compliance folks as, ‘Renewal Eve’ as NMLS opens the renewal window on November 1. All licensees should make sure their CE is done before then so they can renew ASAP and avoid lapses in licensure!” While we’re on rules and regulations, do the number of working IRS employees correlate with the chances of being audited? Some hope so, as 50 percent of IRS employees are expected to be furloughed. The shutdown will be a topic on today’s “The Big Picture” at 3PM ET features Meredith Whitney, “The Oracle of Wall Street,” of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group. She will discuss “Stuck in Place” dynamics, CRE stress, and whether policy can help unlock supply. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50 percent cost savings with an industry leading 75 percent completion rate. Today’s features an interview with Cotality’s Thom Malone on home price trends across various regions of America and what that portends for affordability as we move towards 2026.)

9 Oct, 2025

“Two lawyers walk into a pub. They order a couple of drinks and take subs out of their brief cases. They begin to eat. Seeing this, the angry pub owner exclaims, ‘Excuse me but you cannot eat your own sandwiches in here!’ The two look at each other, shrug, then exchange sandwiches.” Legal news leads off the Commentary today as Optimal Blue and nearly 30 originators were hit with a lawsuit alleging price collusion impacting millions of borrowers, noting these lenders’ spreads were 2.68bps (49.2 percent somehow) higher than others and that mortgage payments surged 54 percent from 2022 to 2025. “The sooner you fall behind, the more time you’ll have to catch up.” For originators who don’t want to fall behind, yesterday’s Commentary discussed the countdown to Halloween, and thank you to Rate’s Jennifer N. who wrote, “In the mortgage world, Halloween is celebrated by Licensing and Compliance folks as, ‘Renewal Eve’ as NMLS opens the renewal window on November 1. All licensees should make sure their CE is done before then so they can renew ASAP and avoid lapses in licensure!” While we’re on rules and regulations, do the number of working IRS employees correlate with the chances of being audited? Some hope so, as 50 percent of IRS employees are expected to be furloughed. The shutdown will be a topic on today’s “The Big Picture” at 3PM ET features Meredith Whitney, “The Oracle of Wall Street,” of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group. She will discuss “Stuck in Place” dynamics, CRE stress, and whether policy can help unlock supply. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50 percent cost savings with an industry leading 75 percent completion rate. Today’s features an interview with Cotality’s Thom Malone on home price trends across various regions of America and what that portends for affordability as we move towards 2026.)

8 Oct, 2025

* **Refinance Volume:** Florida mirrored national trends with refinance activity significantly decreasing in 2023 and 2024 due to rising interest rates, compared to the refinance boom of 2020-2022.
* **Common Refinance Goals:** Lowering interest rates to reduce monthly payments, shortening the loan term for faster equity building, switching from adjustable-rate to fixed-rate mortgages for payment stability, and cash-out refinancing for home improvements or debt consolidation are the main goals.
* **Conventional Refinancing:** Requires good credit (620+ FICO score), stable income, and a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) generally below 80% for the best rates.
* **FHA Refinancing:** Offers easier qualification than conventional loans, even with lower credit scores; Streamline refinance requires minimal documentation and no appraisal.
* **VA Refinancing:** Available for eligible veterans and active-duty military; IRRRL (Interest Rate Reduction Refinance Loan) offers streamlined refinancing with reduced paperwork and no appraisal required in most instances.
* **Cash-Out Refinancing:** Allows homeowners to borrow against their home equity; LTV requirements are generally stricter than rate and term refinances.
* **Rate Impact:** Even a small decrease (0.5% – 1%) in interest rate can result in significant savings over the loan term.
* **Closing Costs:** Typically range from 2% to 5% of the loan amount, including appraisal fees, title insurance, and origination fees.
* **Florida-Specific Considerations:** Homeowners in coastal areas should consider potential flood insurance implications when refinancing.