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May Day… whether you celebrate today as “about” halfway between the Northern Hemisphere’s Spring equinox and Midsummer solstice associated with maypoles, or a day that commemorates the historic struggles and gains made by workers and the labor movement, mostly associated with communist Russia (which has never been our ally in 80 years), it’s up to you. So, let’s stick with the seasons. As we approach summer, many in the Western U.S. are gearing up for forest fires. Despite the growing threat of them, many Americans continue to move into high-risk areas. A LendingTree study found that 27 of the 29 metros with the highest wildfire risk had more people moving in than out, with Flagstaff, Arizona leading in both in-migration and out-migration, indicating high population turnover. Meanwhile, only Redding, California, and Wenatchee, Washington, experienced net population declines, and metros like Los Angeles and Fresno showed stable populations with modest net gains. With a lack of available homes in certain areas and certain price points, it is understandable: The rental vacancy rate ticked up to 7.1% in the first quarter, according to the Census Bureau. The homeownership rate was flat at 65.1%. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums and close more loans. Hear an interview with CreditXpert’s Mike Darne on ways lenders and originators can help borrowers improve their credit scores and qualify for more mortgage programs and products.)

– Florida’s real estate market is experiencing a slowdown after a period of rapid growth during the pandemic.
– Inventory levels are rising across many Florida markets, offering buyers more choices. Redfin data shows inventory up significantly year-over-year in many metro areas.
– Mortgage rates remain elevated, impacting affordability and dampening buyer demand. As of October 2024, rates hovered around 7-8%.
– Price growth has slowed or even reversed in some areas. Zillow data indicates price decreases in certain markets, but overall prices remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.
– Insurance costs are a major concern, especially in coastal areas. Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, the state-backed insurer, has seen significant growth in policyholders due to private insurers pulling back. Premiums are high.
– Property taxes are increasing in many areas, further impacting the total cost of homeownership.
– Investor activity has cooled down, reducing competition for first-time homebuyers and other owner-occupants.
– Specific markets such as Miami, Tampa, and Orlando are showing varied trends.
– Median sales prices varied widely from $350,000 to $600,000 based on city.

Florida’s real estate market faces uncertainty. Inventory is rising, with some areas experiencing significant increases in listings year-over-year. Mortgage rates remain elevated, impacting affordability. While prices have cooled from peak levels in 2022, a major price drop is not universally predicted. Some experts anticipate a continued moderation or stabilization, while others foresee minor price declines in certain regions. Population growth, a key driver of demand, is slowing but remains positive. Investment properties may see more price adjustments due to sensitivity to interest rates. Local market conditions vary significantly, meaning blanket statements about the entire state are unreliable.