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17 Apr, 2025

A week from today is “Take Your Child to Work Day.” Something tells me that it won’t be observed in U.S. Government offices. While we’re on family issues, I received this note. “Rob, have you heard of originators sponsoring SPCA pet adoption days, since sometimes when a family welcomes a dog, it is a precursor to moving from an apartment into a house? And the LO wants to be in front of pet owners.” Yes, indeed I have, and it’s a good cause. There is talk that the traditional chain of, “College, job, marriage, children, home, pets” may be shuffled a little for starter families and starter homes for people in their 20s. Nearly everyone knows where the equator is, but polls indicate that 89 percent of people in the United States couldn’t identify Syria, Ukraine, or Gaza on a world map. Okay, I just made that statistic up, but I bet it is not far off. Hopefully they know where Omaha is, or at least Nebraska, since lenders may want to have a branch there because it is a fine place for people in their 20’s to afford a home. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by BeSmartee, transforming mortgage lending with Bright Connect, its native mobile app designed to boost loan officer productivity, speed up referrals, and simplify the borrower experience. Hear an interview with Luxury Mortgage’s David Adamo on the strategic advantages of non-QM loans, and insights on how they can help lenders stand out, diversify their portfolios, and navigate today’s competitive lending landscape.)

17 Apr, 2025

A week from today is “Take Your Child to Work Day.” Something tells me that it won’t be observed in U.S. Government offices. While we’re on family issues, I received this note. “Rob, have you heard of originators sponsoring SPCA pet adoption days, since sometimes when a family welcomes a dog, it is a precursor to moving from an apartment into a house? And the LO wants to be in front of pet owners.” Yes, indeed I have, and it’s a good cause. There is talk that the traditional chain of, “College, job, marriage, children, home, pets” may be shuffled a little for starter families and starter homes for people in their 20s. Nearly everyone knows where the equator is, but polls indicate that 89 percent of people in the United States couldn’t identify Syria, Ukraine, or Gaza on a world map. Okay, I just made that statistic up, but I bet it is not far off. Hopefully they know where Omaha is, or at least Nebraska, since lenders may want to have a branch there because it is a fine place for people in their 20’s to afford a home. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by BeSmartee, transforming mortgage lending with Bright Connect, its native mobile app designed to boost loan officer productivity, speed up referrals, and simplify the borrower experience. Hear an interview with Luxury Mortgage’s David Adamo on the strategic advantages of non-QM loans, and insights on how they can help lenders stand out, diversify their portfolios, and navigate today’s competitive lending landscape.)

17 Apr, 2025

Bonds Reprise Familiar Role as a Safe Haven Amid Renewed Rout in Stocks

You’ve seen it plenty of times so far in 2025. You’ve wondered what the heck happened to it during last week’s volatile tariff announcement aftermath. Now today, more than any other day this week, a good, old-fashioned flight to safety helped the bond market realize some decent gains. Powell’s speech at 1:30pm ET was the clear catalyst, with warnings for the economy and reassurances for the bond market’s smooth functioning. At this point, bonds are right back in line with the flat, narrow range seen between late February and late March. 

Econ Data / Events

Retail Sales 

1.4 vs 1.3 f’cast, 0.2 prev

Retail Sales Control Group

0.4 vs 0.6 f’cast, 1.3 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:42 AM sideways to slightly stronger overnight.  Minimal reaction to data.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.4 bps at 4.33

10:47 AM 5.5 UMBS are now down 1 tick (0.03) on the day and 10yr yields up 1.2bps at 4.348

01:51 PM Some volatility surrounding Powell, but holding gains, mostly.  MBS up an eighth on the day and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.308

02:40 PM Stronger during and after Powell.  MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 5.8bps at 4.278

16 Apr, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is experiencing a shift.

* **Rising Interest Rates:** Mortgage rates are significantly higher than in recent years, impacting affordability and buyer demand.
* **Inventory Increase:** Housing inventory is growing in many Florida markets, offering buyers more choices but potentially slowing price appreciation.
* **Price Adjustments:** While some areas still see price gains, price reductions and slower appreciation are becoming more common. Some markets have experienced price declines year-over-year.
* **Days on Market:** Properties are staying on the market longer compared to the peak of the pandemic-era boom.
* **Regional Variations:** Market conditions vary greatly across Florida, with coastal areas and major metropolitan regions often behaving differently than inland or rural locations. Specific markets like Miami continue to show strength, while others are cooling more rapidly.
* **Seller Incentives:** Sellers are increasingly offering incentives like paying closing costs or providing concessions to attract buyers.
* **Inflation Impact:** General inflation and rising insurance costs are contributing to affordability challenges.
* **Migration Trends:** Florida continues to experience population growth, although net migration may be slowing compared to peak pandemic levels.
* **Median Sales Price:** The median sales price for existing single-family homes in Florida was $420,000 in April 2024.
* **Months’ Supply of Inventory:** Florida had approximately a 4.5-month supply of inventory in April 2024. This is up from previous lows, but still indicates a moderately balanced market.

16 Apr, 2025

“Every morning, I get hit by the same bicycle… It’s a vicious cycle.” Double meanings aside, seasons and the earth’s rotation are cyclical, and Anchorage is picking up nearly six minutes of sun a day. Did you know that the University of Alaska spans four time zones? (Zones are smaller up there.) The readership of this Commentary spans seven time zones across North America and into the Pacific, all of which have been abuzz with changes at FHFA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. It wasn’t that long ago that the “off with their heads” happened at Freddie Mac as the CEO, COO, and head of HR were fired, and Fannie’s board was changed by Bill Pulte. This month’s piece is titled, “Love Them or Leave Them? The Ongoing Saga of Fannie and Freddie.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by BeSmartee, transforming mortgage lending with Bright Connect, its native mobile app designed to boost loan officer productivity, speed up referrals, and simplify the borrower experience. Hear an interview with economist Elliot Eisenberg on the true impact of tariffs on industrialization and how people can cut through the noise in the news cycle to understand what is actually happening with both the economy and mortgage market.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders Transform the way you manage your loans held for sale. By automating funding through loan sale, OptiFunder streamlines warehouse funding to boost efficiency, reduce risk, and increase profitability like never before. Managing $10 billion per day in loans held for sale for clients, OptiFunder has grown far beyond its beginnings as a warehouse line optimization tool. Today, its comprehensive warehouse management platforms are transforming how both originators and warehouse lenders operate. By connecting key third-party systems like LOS platforms, custodians, eVaults, fraud prevention tools, investors, and more, OptiFunder consolidates your processes into one seamless, scalable solution. Whether simplifying operations or improving efficiency, OptiFunder helps you stay competitive and build stronger relationships across the lending ecosystem. We’re not just optimizing anymore: We’re redefining warehouse management. Visit optifunder.com to learn more, or connect with us at upcoming events to see how we’re driving the future of warehouse lending.

15 Apr, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is experiencing a shift.

* **Rising Interest Rates:** Impacting affordability and slowing sales. Mortgage rates have more than doubled since early 2022.
* **Inventory Increase:** Housing supply is growing, providing buyers with more options and potentially moderating price increases.
* **Price Corrections:** Some areas are seeing price reductions or slower appreciation compared to the pandemic boom. Some markets are experiencing price drops of 5-10% from peak values.
* **Migration Trends:** While still positive overall, net migration to Florida has slowed from its peak during the pandemic. Expect continued growth, but at a more moderate pace.
* **Rental Market:** Remains strong due to continued demand and limited supply in certain areas. Landlords are still seeing demand for rental properties, but rental increases are also slowing down.
* **Investment Strategies:** Opportunities may lie in identifying undervalued properties, focusing on cash flow, and adapting to changing market conditions.
* **Insurance Costs:** Skyrocketing insurance premiums are a significant concern for property owners and a major obstacle to affordability. Some homeowners are seeing insurance costs double or triple.
* **Legislative Impact:** New legislation is aimed to curb insurance fraud and offer relief.
* **Affordability Crisis:** A shortage of affordable housing continues to affect Floridians.

15 Apr, 2025

Here in San Diego at the CU:REALM event, Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp noted that consumer and business sentiment has already dropped and that has led to less spending. Less spending leads to a slower economy and lower rates, which is good, but nervousness has crept into consumer’s thinking and, given that 70 percent of U.S. GDP comes from the consumer, estimates of improving gross domestic product have vanished. Yet Cotality believes 30-year mortgage rates will chop around the 6 percent range this year and next. Another impact that the Trump Administration is having on lenders is in the regulatory arena. On today’s Regulation Central the panel of legal and regulatory experts is joined by former CFPB attorney Richard Horn. The recent filing by the CFPB to unwind the Townstone consent order has raised a lot of eyebrows and questions about fair lending enforcement going forward. Mr. Horn was one of the attorneys that represented Townstone. Other topics will include the state of fair lending, Townstone, and what in the heck are those CFPB people doing now. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by BeSmartee, transforming mortgage lending with Bright Connect, its native mobile app designed to boost loan officer productivity, speed up referrals, and simplify the borrower experience. Interview with BeSmartee’s Tim Nguyen on how evolving economic pressures, borrower expectations, and advances in AI are reshaping point-of-sale solutions, redefining the role of loan officers, and unlocking new opportunities to streamline the mortgage experience.)

15 Apr, 2025

Here in San Diego at the CU:REALM event, Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp noted that consumer and business sentiment has already dropped and that has led to less spending. Less spending leads to a slower economy and lower rates, which is good, but nervousness has crept into consumer’s thinking and, given that 70 percent of U.S. GDP comes from the consumer, estimates of improving gross domestic product have vanished. Yet Cotality believes 30-year mortgage rates will chop around the 6 percent range this year and next. Another impact that the Trump Administration is having on lenders is in the regulatory arena. On today’s Regulation Central the panel of legal and regulatory experts is joined by former CFPB attorney Richard Horn. The recent filing by the CFPB to unwind the Townstone consent order has raised a lot of eyebrows and questions about fair lending enforcement going forward. Mr. Horn was one of the attorneys that represented Townstone. Other topics will include the state of fair lending, Townstone, and what in the heck are those CFPB people doing now. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by BeSmartee, transforming mortgage lending with Bright Connect, its native mobile app designed to boost loan officer productivity, speed up referrals, and simplify the borrower experience. Interview with BeSmartee’s Tim Nguyen on how evolving economic pressures, borrower expectations, and advances in AI are reshaping point-of-sale solutions, redefining the role of loan officers, and unlocking new opportunities to streamline the mortgage experience.)

14 Apr, 2025

– Online listings are crucial for attracting buyers to Florida homes.
– High-quality listing photos are vital, impacting the number of showings and ultimately, sale price.
– Homes with professional photos sell 32% faster and for $3,000-$11,000 more (Redfin).
– Listings with more photos receive 69% more views (IMOTO).
– Staged homes photographed well can fetch 1-5% above asking price (National Association of REALTORS).
– 90% of home buyers search online during their home buying process (NAR).
– Poor quality photos are a significant deterrent; poorly lit, blurry, or cluttered photos can decrease buyer interest by as much as 50% (real estate surveys).
– Drone photography showcasing waterfront or large properties attracts more attention.
– Virtual tours alongside photos can increase engagement and virtual showings.

14 Apr, 2025

“Why don’t you tell rumors in a Botox Clinic? Nobody raises an eyebrow.” Who can keep track of the rumors out there, like a combo of a well-known real estate search engine and a company that exited wholesale a few years ago? (Totally unsubstantiated, unlike the actual Luminate/NJ Lenders news below!) Who can keep track of thousands of products from hundreds of countries to tax them? In yet another change, smartphones, computers, and other electronics are exempt from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, for now. It’s difficult hedging a mortgage pipeline; try being a purchasing manager for a car maker! Or a homebuyer or builder: Canada and Mexico, respectively, are important sources of softwood lumber and gypsum (used in drywall). China is an important source of steel and aluminum, as well as a supplier of home appliances and other products used in residential construction. Many of the raw materials and goods sourced from China are already subject to tariffs. It is important to note that Canada, Mexico, and China are the United States’ three largest trading partners. Economists at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) project that the proposed new tariffs on Mexico and Canada, along with the recently imposed tariffs on China, could raise the cost of imported construction materials by more than $3 billion. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by BeSmartee, transforming mortgage lending with Bright Connect, its native mobile app designed to boost loan officer productivity, speed up referrals, and simplify the borrower experience. Hear an interview with TrustEngine’s Dave Savage on the evolution of the industry since he entered more than three decades ago, how he’s driven to make an impact, and more tidbits from one of the most recognizable names in mortgage that you won’t want to miss.)