18 Mar, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is currently experiencing a slowdown. Home sales are declining year-over-year, with some areas seeing double-digit percentage drops. Inventory is rising, offering buyers more choices and negotiating power.

* **Price Reductions:** A growing percentage of listings are experiencing price reductions, signaling a shift in market dynamics.
* **Inventory Increase:** Inventory levels are significantly higher compared to the lows of the pandemic era, but still below pre-pandemic levels in many areas.
* **Mortgage Rate Impact:** Rising mortgage rates are a key factor cooling demand, making homeownership less affordable. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has more than doubled since early 2022.
* **Regional Variations:** The market slowdown is not uniform across the state. Coastal areas and those previously experiencing hyper-growth are seeing more pronounced corrections. Central and northern Florida maintain relative stability.
* **Luxury Market:** The luxury real estate sector is also showing signs of slowing, although demand remains comparatively higher than other segments.
* **New Construction:** Increased new construction is adding to the existing inventory, potentially further moderating price growth.

18 Mar, 2025

– Florida’s median home price in June 2024 hovered around $408,700 (Zillow), making affordability a key concern.
– Rising property insurance costs in Florida are significantly impacting affordability; some areas see premiums exceeding $6,000 annually.
– Property taxes average 0.84% statewide, but vary by county, adding to the overall housing expense.
– Down payment assistance programs exist for first-time homebuyers, potentially reducing the upfront cost barrier.
– Budgeting tips include pre-approval for a mortgage, creating a realistic budget factoring in all housing-related costs (insurance, taxes, HOA), and exploring less expensive areas or property types.
– Considering the 28/36 rule (housing costs not exceeding 28% of gross monthly income and total debt not exceeding 36%) is crucial for sustainable homeownership.

18 Mar, 2025

Florida’s home buying process involves several key steps, including pre-approval, property search, making an offer, inspection, appraisal, and closing. The average closing time in Florida is 30-45 days. As of October 2024, the median sale price for single-family homes in Florida is approximately $420,000, with fluctuations varying by county and metro area. Inspections typically cost $300-$500, while appraisals range from $500-$700. Common closing costs in Florida range from 2-5% of the purchase price, covering expenses like title insurance, recording fees, and transfer taxes. Florida is a “buyer beware” state, emphasizing the importance of thorough inspections. Title insurance is crucial, protecting against title defects, with the buyer often responsible for selecting the title company. Earnest money deposits usually range from 1-3% of the purchase price.

18 Mar, 2025

Recall 2 weeks ago that news of the incoming German Chancellor’s ambitions to massively increase debt/spending led to the end of the bond rally in the US that took 10yr yields from 4.55 to 4.15%. The resulting bounce in US Treasuries was limited to roughly 15bps.  Meanwhile, Germany’s equivalent 10yr yields spiked 3 times as much, with the March 5th being the worst day for German bonds since 1989 (fall of Berlin Wall). At the time, it wasn’t a given that the debt ceiling increase could pass muster in Germany’s constitutional court and parliament, but as of this morning, it’s a done deal. Thankfully, it seems markets already had this fully priced in.

Meanwhile, the US bond market’s consolidation continues in stunningly perfect fashion ahead of tomorrow’s Fed dot plot.

If you ask a technical analyst, the chart above is a classic consolidation (or triangle, pennant), and it carries one of several connotations. Some say they’re predictive, but the only reliable prediction is that such consolidations can’t last forever (after all, the white lines are about to converge). The Fed’s dot plot probably has the power to cause a breakout in one direction or the other, but incoming economic data would have to agree with the move if it’s to be sustained. 

17 Mar, 2025

Florida offers several programs for first-time homebuyers, including down payment and closing cost assistance. Eligibility typically requires a credit score of 620 or higher, income limits varying by county, and completion of a HUD-approved homebuyer education course. The Florida Housing Finance Corporation (Florida Housing) oversees many of these initiatives. Key programs include the Florida Assist Second Mortgage (provides down payment assistance as a deferred, non-interest loan) and the Homeownership Loan Program (offering below-market interest rates). Income limits can range from approximately $65,000 to over $100,000, depending on household size and location. Florida’s Hometown Heroes program offers discounts to essential workers, providing lower rates and down payment assistance, capped at $35,000. The maximum purchase price varies by county and program, often in the $300,000 – $450,000 range.

17 Mar, 2025

After improving modestly in the overnight session, bonds contended with the Retail Sales data at 8:30am ET.  At first glance, it should have been helpful, given that the headline came in at 0.2 versus a forecast of 0.6, but the closely watched control group (which excludes cars, fuel, and building materials) was much higher than expected. With that, bonds briefly the overnight gains. They’ve been bouncing back ever since. Some of that bounce has to do with a glut of bond buying 10 minutes before the 9:30am NYSE open.  The rest may be down to the inability of stocks to sustain a rally in early trading.

16 Mar, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is showing signs of cooling after a period of rapid growth. Median home prices are experiencing a slowdown, with some areas seeing slight decreases. Inventory levels are rising, offering buyers more options.

* **Price Deceleration:** Price growth is slowing down significantly compared to the pandemic peak.
* **Inventory Increase:** Inventory levels have increased notably across the state, providing buyers with more choices and negotiating power.
* **Interest Rate Impact:** Rising mortgage interest rates are affecting affordability and dampening buyer demand.
* **Regional Variations:** Market conditions vary significantly by region. Coastal areas and major metropolitan areas may experience different trends than inland or rural regions.
* **Migration Patterns:** Changes in migration patterns continue to influence demand in specific areas. In-migration from other states remains a factor, but it is slowing.
* **Economic Factors:** Florida’s overall economic health, including job growth and unemployment rates, will play a crucial role in future housing market trends.
* **Days on Market:** Homes are staying on the market for longer periods compared to the recent past.
* **Foreclosure Rates:** Foreclosure rates remain low but are slowly starting to increase from record lows.
* **New Construction:** The pace of new construction is a factor that impacts the availability of homes.

16 Mar, 2025

Florida offers various programs to assist first-time homebuyers. Eligibility generally requires not owning a home in the past 3 years. The Florida Housing Finance Corporation (Florida Housing) is the primary agency. Key programs include:

* **Florida Assist:** Offers a deferred, non-interest-bearing second mortgage for down payment and closing cost assistance.
* **Florida Hometown Heroes Loan Program:** Provides reduced interest rates and down payment/closing cost assistance to eligible frontline workers.
* **Mortgage Credit Certificate (MCC):** Reduces federal income tax liability, effectively lowering monthly mortgage payments.
* **First-Time Homebuyer Program:** Offers below-market interest rates on first mortgages.

Data points to note: Down payment assistance can range up to \$10,000 or more, depending on the program. Income and purchase price limits apply and vary by county. Credit score requirements also vary by program and lender, generally requiring a minimum score of 620-640. First-time homebuyers must complete a HUD-approved homebuyer education course. Florida Housing provided over \$278 million in assistance for affordable housing in 2022-2023.

15 Mar, 2025

Florida home selling strategies to maximize property value focus on:

* **Timing:** Historically, May & June often show higher sales prices.
* **Staging:** Professionally staged homes can sell for up to 5% more.
* **Curb Appeal:** First impressions are vital; landscaping investment returns are high.
* **Updates/Renovations:** Kitchen and bathroom remodels offer strong ROI. Focus on modernizing, not necessarily luxury upgrades, to appeal to a wider range of buyers.
* **Pricing Strategy:** Underpricing can create bidding wars, but overpricing can lead to stagnation. Current market analysis is crucial.
* **Disclosure:** Full disclosure of known issues builds trust and avoids legal problems.
* **Professional Photography:** High-quality photos are essential for online listings.
* **Marketing:** Utilize multiple channels (online, social media, agent network).
* **Negotiation Skills:** Crucial for securing the best price and terms.

15 Mar, 2025

Uneventful Friday, Even if Slightly Weaker

Friday’s trading session was the most uneventful of the week.  It began with moderate losses in the overnight session in concert with stock market gains.  Some traders attributed this to improved odds of avoiding a government shutdown by tonight’s deadline.  The only scheduled economic data was the Consumer Sentiment report which has fallen by the wayside to some extent as the results are increasingly discounted as being clouded by political affiliations of respondents. Nonetheless, the uptick in inflation expectations was notable and worth a bit of extra weakness in bonds at the time.  Even so, bonds remains well within the range set by yesterday’s trading.  The result is an “inside day” in market jargon, which one could either read as “indecisive” or “boring.”  We’d lean toward the latter.

Econ Data / Events

Consumer Sentiment

57.9 vs 63.1 f’cast, 64.7 prev

1yr inflation expectations

up 0.6%

5yr inflation expectations

up 0.6%

Market Movement Recap

09:30 AM Moderately weaker overnight in concert with stock market gains.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.303

10:03 AM Some weakness following uptick in consumer inflation expectations.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.8bps at 4.317

12:27 PM Calm and sideways.  10yr up 2.6bps at 4.296.   MBS down 2 ticks (.06)

03:20 PM Losing some ground in PM hours.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.313

04:49 PM Just a hair weaker.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.8bps and 4.318.