Here in Telluride, CO, after learning of my capital markets background, yesterday someone bluntly asked me, “Can one person slow or stop the United States economy, or the world economy?” I was taken aback by the question, but it isn’t totally off-base: no one is saying a shutdown helps GDP. In eight months, we’ve learned not to underestimate the changes that can be made by the current administration. We had been talking about the government’s shutdown, impacting several areas of residential lending (see below). As previous “on the record” statements made by President Trump circulate and are being used against him about the role of the president in situations like this, there is plenty of blame to go around. But the U.S. government shutdown is strengthening expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, which is exactly what Trump wanted, with markets fully pricing in an October move and giving an 88 percent chance of another in December. Delays and risks to the labor market from 750,000 furloughs make it more likely Chair Jerome Powell will push for further easing, even as inflation pressures from tariffs remain a concern. Remember when all we fretted about were tariffs? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Spring EQ, one of the nation’s leading non-bank home equity lenders, giving partners more ways to serve customers. Known for speed, service, and innovation, Spring EQ makes tapping into home equity easier. Hear an interview with new California MBA CEO Paul Gigliotti on his goals while in the role and how state and national organizations can work together for the greater good of the mortgage industry.)

“Someone posted that they had just made synonym buns. I replied, ‘You mean just like the ones that grammar used to make?’ I am now blocked.” That was sent to me by an economist; yes, they have senses of humor. Did you know that the Federal Reserve Board employs more than 500 researchers, including more than 400 Ph.D. economists, who represent an exceptionally diverse range of interests and specific areas of expertise? (I wonder if anyone yells, “Is there a doctor in the house?” at staff meetings.) This week’s focus will be almost entirely on the Federal Reserve. The central bank’s monetary policy committee will deliver its seventh interest rate decision of the year on Wednesday. The Fed has stubbornly held interest rates steady since ending 2024 with a series of cuts, but now with the labor market showing continued signs of cooling and inflation remaining sticky, it is a sure thing that the central bank will restart its policy easing process and drop overnight Fed Funds by 25 basis points, which in turn should move the discount rate lower (the rate at which the Federal Reserve lends money to financial institutions, including commercial banks, thrifts and credit unions). (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by CreditXpert. The all-new credit optimization platform that helps you close more loans. CreditXpert is committed to making homeownership more accessible and affordable for ALL. Today’s features an interview with Potomac Consulting’s Dan Varroney on why the Federal Reserve should cut rates 50-basis points this week due to weakening labor markets and recent inflation data.)

The last time I was in Florida I saw a bumper sticker that said, “I thought growing old would take longer.” This weekend I return to the Sunshine State (the MBAF’s Eastern Secondary is coming up), and I mention this because the state is the epicenter of HOA fee escalations, hurricane damage, and insurance woes. But wait! An analysis based on examination of the 45 insurers responsible for personal property insurance in Florida sees the state pulling out of its spiral after eight brutal years of losses. The personal property insurance industry reported an underwriting gain of $207 million in 2024, a big turnaround from the $174 million underwriting loss in 2023, due in large part to a legislative reform that made it somewhat more palatable to do business but an expensive one, as direct premiums reached $11 billion in 2024, more than double the $5 billion seen in 2020. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Today’s has an interview with Rob Chrisman on how the mixed messages from the Trump administration about the future of the GSEs are impacting those in the mortgage industry.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders The average American homeowner has access to a significant source of funds in their home’s equity, and March 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor data shows that they are finally starting to tap into it. Retention and recapture remain a heavy focus for lenders as the market continues to shift, and with the right tools, home equity can provide an opportunity to develop stickier relationships with customers. But it goes beyond simply offering customers home equity products; it’s about providing them with a convenient equity application, valuation and lending process through powerful digital tools. Read the latest blog to learn how ICE is helping lenders unlock new opportunities in home equity lending.

The last time I was in Florida I saw a bumper sticker that said, “I thought growing old would take longer.” This weekend I return to the Sunshine State (the MBAF’s Eastern Secondary is coming up), and I mention this because the state is the epicenter of HOA fee escalations, hurricane damage, and insurance woes. But wait! An analysis based on examination of the 45 insurers responsible for personal property insurance in Florida sees the state pulling out of its spiral after eight brutal years of losses. The personal property insurance industry reported an underwriting gain of $207 million in 2024, a big turnaround from the $174 million underwriting loss in 2023, due in large part to a legislative reform that made it somewhat more palatable to do business but an expensive one, as direct premiums reached $11 billion in 2024, more than double the $5 billion seen in 2020. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Today’s has an interview with Rob Chrisman on how the mixed messages from the Trump administration about the future of the GSEs are impacting those in the mortgage industry.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders The average American homeowner has access to a significant source of funds in their home’s equity, and March 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor data shows that they are finally starting to tap into it. Retention and recapture remain a heavy focus for lenders as the market continues to shift, and with the right tools, home equity can provide an opportunity to develop stickier relationships with customers. But it goes beyond simply offering customers home equity products; it’s about providing them with a convenient equity application, valuation and lending process through powerful digital tools. Read the latest blog to learn how ICE is helping lenders unlock new opportunities in home equity lending.

Right out of the gate in the overnight session, stocks were weaker and bonds were stronger in a risk-off move that has become all too familiar for financial markets recently. Over the weekend, a fresh round of tariff headlines added more economic uncertainty to the mix with Trump mentioning reciprocal tariffs with “all countries” and WSJ reporting that an across-the-board 20% tariff is being considered.  Stocks and bond yields are both rapidly re-approaching their lowest levels of this cycle.

If you’re just joining us, here’s a brief history of the last few decades as it concerns inflation and interest rates. Inflation was an overblown concern among market participants who were scarred by the early 80s. It consistently failed to matter or materialize until 1980s style hyperinflation came roaring back post-covid. Since then, inflation data is once again a top tier market mover and the PCE price index is the most important of the 3 main government price indices. But PCE is tricky for a few reasons. First off, the other two indices come out 2 weeks earlier and allow PCE to be more accurately predicted. Also tricky is a day like today where we have a PCE price index update as a part of the GDP report. This isn’t the PCE you’re looking for! It pertains to Q4, 2024. Tomorrow’s PCE release is for the month of February, and that’s the more timely/relevant installment of the data. Today’s just finalizes revisions to December’s PCE reading and thus finalizes the Q4 price index.
In other news of the same category (things we’re not looking for), today’s jobless claims data is also not the labor market weakness we’re looking for.  2025 continues looking like the past 4 non-lockdown-affected years. 

Bonds aren’t upset though.  There’s even been a modest rally after the glut of AM data, but we’re still slightly weaker vs yesterday.