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16 Mar, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is showing signs of cooling after a period of rapid growth. Median home prices are experiencing a slowdown, with some areas seeing slight decreases. Inventory levels are rising, offering buyers more options.

* **Price Deceleration:** Price growth is slowing down significantly compared to the pandemic peak.
* **Inventory Increase:** Inventory levels have increased notably across the state, providing buyers with more choices and negotiating power.
* **Interest Rate Impact:** Rising mortgage interest rates are affecting affordability and dampening buyer demand.
* **Regional Variations:** Market conditions vary significantly by region. Coastal areas and major metropolitan areas may experience different trends than inland or rural regions.
* **Migration Patterns:** Changes in migration patterns continue to influence demand in specific areas. In-migration from other states remains a factor, but it is slowing.
* **Economic Factors:** Florida’s overall economic health, including job growth and unemployment rates, will play a crucial role in future housing market trends.
* **Days on Market:** Homes are staying on the market for longer periods compared to the recent past.
* **Foreclosure Rates:** Foreclosure rates remain low but are slowly starting to increase from record lows.
* **New Construction:** The pace of new construction is a factor that impacts the availability of homes.

16 Mar, 2025

Florida offers various programs to assist first-time homebuyers. Eligibility generally requires not owning a home in the past 3 years. The Florida Housing Finance Corporation (Florida Housing) is the primary agency. Key programs include:

* **Florida Assist:** Offers a deferred, non-interest-bearing second mortgage for down payment and closing cost assistance.
* **Florida Hometown Heroes Loan Program:** Provides reduced interest rates and down payment/closing cost assistance to eligible frontline workers.
* **Mortgage Credit Certificate (MCC):** Reduces federal income tax liability, effectively lowering monthly mortgage payments.
* **First-Time Homebuyer Program:** Offers below-market interest rates on first mortgages.

Data points to note: Down payment assistance can range up to \$10,000 or more, depending on the program. Income and purchase price limits apply and vary by county. Credit score requirements also vary by program and lender, generally requiring a minimum score of 620-640. First-time homebuyers must complete a HUD-approved homebuyer education course. Florida Housing provided over \$278 million in assistance for affordable housing in 2022-2023.

15 Mar, 2025

Florida home selling strategies to maximize property value focus on:

* **Timing:** Historically, May & June often show higher sales prices.
* **Staging:** Professionally staged homes can sell for up to 5% more.
* **Curb Appeal:** First impressions are vital; landscaping investment returns are high.
* **Updates/Renovations:** Kitchen and bathroom remodels offer strong ROI. Focus on modernizing, not necessarily luxury upgrades, to appeal to a wider range of buyers.
* **Pricing Strategy:** Underpricing can create bidding wars, but overpricing can lead to stagnation. Current market analysis is crucial.
* **Disclosure:** Full disclosure of known issues builds trust and avoids legal problems.
* **Professional Photography:** High-quality photos are essential for online listings.
* **Marketing:** Utilize multiple channels (online, social media, agent network).
* **Negotiation Skills:** Crucial for securing the best price and terms.

15 Mar, 2025

Uneventful Friday, Even if Slightly Weaker

Friday’s trading session was the most uneventful of the week.  It began with moderate losses in the overnight session in concert with stock market gains.  Some traders attributed this to improved odds of avoiding a government shutdown by tonight’s deadline.  The only scheduled economic data was the Consumer Sentiment report which has fallen by the wayside to some extent as the results are increasingly discounted as being clouded by political affiliations of respondents. Nonetheless, the uptick in inflation expectations was notable and worth a bit of extra weakness in bonds at the time.  Even so, bonds remains well within the range set by yesterday’s trading.  The result is an “inside day” in market jargon, which one could either read as “indecisive” or “boring.”  We’d lean toward the latter.

Econ Data / Events

Consumer Sentiment

57.9 vs 63.1 f’cast, 64.7 prev

1yr inflation expectations

up 0.6%

5yr inflation expectations

up 0.6%

Market Movement Recap

09:30 AM Moderately weaker overnight in concert with stock market gains.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.303

10:03 AM Some weakness following uptick in consumer inflation expectations.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.8bps at 4.317

12:27 PM Calm and sideways.  10yr up 2.6bps at 4.296.   MBS down 2 ticks (.06)

03:20 PM Losing some ground in PM hours.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.313

04:49 PM Just a hair weaker.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.8bps and 4.318.

15 Mar, 2025

Florida homeownership involves navigating unique considerations such as hurricane preparedness and fluctuating insurance costs. The average Florida home price in 2024 is approximately $400,000, but this varies widely by region (e.g., Miami-Dade vs. rural areas). Property taxes average around 0.98% of a home’s assessed value annually. Florida requires disclosure of previous sinkhole activity and flood zone status. Homeowners insurance is crucial, with average premiums significantly higher than the national average, often exceeding $6,000 annually, depending on location and coverage. It’s prudent to obtain wind mitigation inspections to potentially lower insurance premiums. Many first-time homebuyers utilize state and local down payment assistance programs. Understanding homestead exemptions is critical for reducing property taxes and protecting assets. Inspections should specifically address issues common in Florida such as termites, mold, and roof condition, considering the impact of intense sun and storms.

15 Mar, 2025

Florida offers several programs for first-time homebuyers. Eligibility often hinges on not owning a home in the past 3 years or meeting specific income and purchase price limits. The Florida Housing Finance Corporation (Florida Housing) is the primary agency administering these programs.

Key Programs include:

* **Florida Housing Loan Programs:** Offering low-interest rates and down payment/closing cost assistance. Often require homebuyer education courses.
* **Down Payment Assistance (DPA):** Can provide up to $10,000 or more, often structured as a second mortgage (forgivable or deferred payment).
* **Mortgage Credit Certificate (MCC):** Reduces federal income tax liability, effectively lowering the mortgage interest rate.
* **Florida Hometown Heroes Loan Program:** Provides reduced interest rates and upfront fees to essential workers, including law enforcement officers, firefighters, educators, healthcare professionals, and active military or veterans.

Important Statistics/Data Points:

* Income and purchase price limits vary by county and program. Check Florida Housing’s website for current figures.
* DPA amounts and terms differ based on the specific program and lender.
* The MCC provides a tax credit of up to $2,000 annually.

Critical Points of Interest:

* Homebuyer education is often mandatory for first-time homebuyers utilizing these programs.
* Limited funds are available; application does not guarantee approval.
* Working with a participating lender familiar with Florida Housing programs is crucial.
* FHA, VA, and USDA loans are available to first-time homebuyers in Florida, with varying down payment requirements.

15 Mar, 2025

Florida mortgage rates mirror national trends but can be impacted by state-specific economic factors and insurance costs. As of late 2023/early 2024, rates fluctuated between 6-8% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, significantly impacting affordability compared to the sub-3% rates seen in 2021. Each 1% increase in mortgage rates can reduce a buyer’s purchasing power by approximately 10%. High property insurance premiums in Florida, driven by hurricane risk, add to the overall cost of homeownership and can influence lender risk assessment. The Florida Housing Finance Corporation offers programs aimed at first-time homebuyers, potentially providing lower rates or down payment assistance. Fluctuations in the 10-year Treasury yield heavily influence mortgage rate movements.

25 Feb, 2025

Teddy Roosevelt thought that lawyers are trained to serve clients and not justice. An interesting discussion topic. Residential lending certainly has its share of legal proceedings and suits, but commercial lending does as well. For example, Wells Fargo is suing JPMorgan over a troubled $481 million commercial real estate loan made in 2019 to “recover losses for investors on the loan allegedly based on fraudulently inflated net operating income by 25 percent. According to the complaint in Manhattan federal court, JPMorgan went ahead with the loan, knowing it would eventually be sold in pieces to unwitting investors. The borrower defaulted in 2022 and still owes more than $285 million, while investors have lost tens of millions of dollars, Wells Fargo said. Wells Fargo wants New York-based JPMorgan to repurchase the loan, less amounts the trust received from sales of underlying properties, or else pay damages for breach of contract. In the residential world, the talk of repurchase requests by Freddie and Fannie has died down, but it is still a possibility and the cost of handling and defending against those requests, or dealing with repurchases, is certainly added to the cost of business for lenders. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TransUnion. TransUnion offers thousands of B2B solutions designed to address the unique needs of mortgage lenders, especially for their identity-focused, data-driven mortgage insights and solutions. Hear an interview with TRAiNED’s Jonathan Freed on what problems AI can solve in mortgage lending and how successful lenders are embracing it.)

25 Feb, 2025

Seemingly overnight (i.e. over the past 30 days when it comes to markets reacting to economic data), the CPI and PPI inflation numbers that normally impact bonds have been overlooked in favor of a handful of line items buried within each report.  The line items in question are those that impact the PCE price index (released 2 weeks from now). In today’s case, those specific line items pointed toward higher PCE inflation even though headline/core PPI inflation was lower than forecast. 

To recap, PCE is a more important inflation number than CPI or PPI, but CPI/PPI come out 2 weeks earlier and several of their components flow directly into the PCE calculation.  For the 2nd day in a row, those components were higher (bad for bonds), even though CPI/PPI came in lower. 

25 Feb, 2025

Why Aren’t Bonds Happier About CPI?

For the 2nd month in a row, the market’s reaction to a CPI/PPI report ended up being less about the report itself and more about its implications for the more highly regarded PCE inflation data. While we have to wait 2 weeks for official word on PCE, the CPI/PPI combination goes a long way toward revealing the outcome. In today’s case, CPI suggested higher PCE inflation, so bonds ended up selling off, albeit modestly, despite core CPI coming in lower than expected. Thursday’s PPI once again has the opportunity to punch above its typical weight for the same reason. 

Econ Data / Events

Core M/M CPI

0.2 vs 0.3  f’cast. 0.5 prev
unrounded 0.2266

Core Y/Y CPI

3.1 vs 3.2 f’cast, 3.3 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:31 AM Weaker overnight and mixed reaction to CPI (mostly ignored). MBS down 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.316

12:46 PM MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.8bps at 4.308

03:41 PM Fairly flat in the afternoon, despite some noise in both directions.  MBS are unchanged and 10yr yields are up 3.6bps at 4.317