17 Jul, 2025

“I forgot to put the seat belt on my five-year-old boy this morning and as we were leaving the trailer park, somebody shouted, ‘You’re an irresponsible father!’ I yelled, “Who the hell said that?! Stop the car, son!’” Lenders know that not all manufactured homes are trailers, and in fact there are some great MHs out there. In a few weeks I head to Michigan for the MMLA conference. It turns out that that over 25 percent of manufactured homes in Michigan are owned by private equity or similar entities per the Private Equity Manufactured Housing Tracker. In 2020 and 2021, they accounted for 23 percent of all manufactured home purchases, up from 13 percent between 2017 and 2019. Housing market trends will be discussed in today’s The Big Picture will start at 11:15AM PT, with Pete Mills from the Mortgage Bankers Association also discussing upcoming policy developments, GSE reform and the MBS guarantee, and what the MBA is watching. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Ocrolus. Ocrolus is transforming the mortgage industry with AI-powered data and analytics, featuring cutting-edge tools for automated indexing, income analysis, and discrepancy insights that empower underwriters to make timely, confident lending decisions. Hear an interview with Garrett, McAuley & Co.’s Joe Garrett on the future of mortgage commissions, debating whether automation, shrinking margins, and smarter underwriting tools will make 100-basis points payouts a thing of the past.)

16 Jul, 2025

Florida’s real estate market faces uncertainty. While prices rose significantly during the pandemic, fueled by migration and low interest rates, experts predict a potential slowdown. Inventory remains low in many areas, but rising mortgage rates are impacting affordability and demand.

Key Facts & Figures:

* Median home prices in Florida increased substantially from 2020-2023.
* Rising interest rates (above 7% as of late 2023) are cooling buyer demand.
* Inventory levels are still below pre-pandemic norms, but are increasing in some markets.
* Property insurance costs are a significant concern, deterring some buyers.
* Migration to Florida, while still positive, has slowed compared to peak pandemic years.
* Some experts predict price stabilization or modest corrections in specific areas, while others forecast continued, albeit slower, growth.
* Affordability is a major challenge, especially for first-time homebuyers.

16 Jul, 2025

JPMorgan told FinTechs that it will charge for access to its customers’ bank information. The fees would bring big bucks to JPMorgan but eat into the profit margin of any lender or credit reporting agency or verification service. Will this become a trend with other depositories? Lenders and their originators, along with MBS investors, carefully watch trends in income and individuals. The gig economy, driven by on-demand work and services like rideshares and food delivery, is a growing part of the U.S. economy and primarily consists of sole proprietorships tracked by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Non-employer Statistics (NES) program. In 2023, the top five gig-related industries by number of individual proprietors were Couriers and Messengers, Taxi and Limousine Services, Janitorial Services, Independent Artists/Writers/Performers, and Child Care Services, all showing notable growth from 2018 figures. While not all non-employer businesses are part of the gig economy, these industries highlight the increasing prevalence and economic significance of gig-based work. Back to JPMorgan, some lenders are doing well, at least in the big bank world. JPMorgan reported that mortgage origination volume increased 26 percent YOY to $13.5 billion. Despite the jump in volume, production income actually fell, from $157 million to $151 million, but this was offset by an increase in servicing income. Wells Fargo clocked in at $7.4 billion in the quarter versus $5.3 billion for the second quarter last year. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Ocrolus. Ocrolus is transforming the mortgage industry with AI-powered data and analytics, featuring cutting-edge tools for automated indexing, income analysis, and discrepancy insights that empower underwriters to make timely, confident lending decisions. Hear an interview with Curinos’ Ken Flaherty and Rich Martin on key opportunities for lenders to attract, retain, and grow more profitable customer relationships, across both first mortgages and home equity products.)

14 Jul, 2025

In news for fans of the wholesale lending channel (more below), heading into the baseball All Star Break the Philadelphia Phillies, owned in part by Freedom Mortgage’s Stan Middleman, are leading the NL East. UWM Holdings Corp CEO Mat Ishbia and SFS Holding Corp sold a combined total of 1,200,108 shares of UWM Class A Common Stock in three separate transactions, netting approximately $5 million. The sales come as UWM, currently valued at $6.6 billion, has seen its stock decline by over 26 percent in the past six months. That said, UWM has invested $100 million in Bilt which offers rewards for housing payments. Bilt originally made its name by offering renters the opportunity to earn points on rental payments and is building capital: The company announced that it has raised $250 million in new funding, bringing its total valuation to $10.75 billion, more than twice its valuation from roughly a year ago. It’s also introducing Bilt Card 2.0, an upgraded credit card offering that will launch in February of next year. That’s UWM… What is your company doing to obtain leads? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Ocrolus. Ocrolus is transforming the mortgage industry with AI-powered data and analytics, featuring cutting-edge tools for automated indexing, income analysis, and discrepancy insights that empower underwriters to make timely, confident lending decisions. Hear an interview with Absolute Home Mortgage Corporation’s Matthew VanFossen on how executives handle recruiters constantly attempting to poach top originators.)

9 Jul, 2025

Anyone who’s spent much time around MBS Live knows about our favorite mantra regarding predictions.  Specifically, they are for suckers–at least in the context of predicting future interest rate movement. Occasionally, though, there are conditions that result in somewhat reliable patterns or “paths of least resistance.” 
Any time the bond market has been rallying with regularity–especially when we see several successive days at the lowest yields in many weeks–and then encounters a big data flash point that prompts a sell-off (like last  week’s jobs report), the path of least resistance is to undergo a bit of a correction. Subsequently, that correction tends to show signs of leveling-off, as we noted yesterday afternoon. From there, the path of least resistance is a broadly sideways range trade as we wait for more meaningful data/events to make a case for a breakout.
Today’s supply of such events is still light even though it includes Fed Minutes and a 10yr Treasury auction (we don’t see either being up to the task of stoking any sort of large or sustainable momentum).

8 Jul, 2025

We’re in the summer travel season. TSA will be eliminating its “shoes off” policy, and many will be sampling today’s rollout of Spicy McMuffin breakfast sandwiches at Mickey D’s. My cat Myrtle was never a fan of the TSA, believing, perhaps, given her cynical nature, that their staff was filled with Walmart security guard rejects. (Did you know that you can opt out of the TSA taking your photograph every time you go through security, with no consequences? You should.) If you travel to Washington, D.C., know that a) there are periods between the D and the C, and b) Fed Chair Jerome Powell heads up spending $2.5 billion renovating the D.C. office, with a “b.” The chances of a Fed rate cut in at the next policy meeting in late July plunged to just 5 percent following the jobs report because the Fed is seen as unlikely to lower its policy rate until the labor market weakens. On today’s episode of Capital Markets Wrap presented by Polly, panelists break down the latest jobs data and how the market responded, including what it could mean for the Fed’s next move. They’ll also cover current lock volume trends, along with a look at recent headlines around appraisal fraud in Baltimore and the importance of maintaining a diversified investor base. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50% cost savings with an industry leading 75% completion rate. Today’s has an interview with Polunsky Beitel Green’s Peter Idziak on the recent Senate Parliamentarian’s decision blocking efforts to defund the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau via reconciliation and the implications for the agency’s independence and the broader mortgage lending framework.)

7 Jul, 2025

The nation is gripped with the flooding in Texas, the loss of human life and property, and how best to prevent future similar occurrences given the increase in the severity of weather. (Fairway Independent has already donated $1 million to recovery efforts.) Texas is one of the leading models in the U.S. for growth and in lending. We’ve been saying that we have had a housing shortage for so long, in Texas and elsewhere, that any change to that narrative is almost ignored. Yet builders are having to cut prices to attract buyers, unsold inventory has moved higher, and homes are sitting with “For Sale” signs in their lawns for longer. Affordability continues to be an issue, but lenders can only do so much. The U.S. Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage rates, but it watches the same economic data as MBS buyers. The odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month fell dramatically as new data showed strong growth in the labor market, diminishing the case for lower rates. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50% cost savings with an industry leading 75% completion rate. Today’s has an interview with Truework’s Ethan Winchell on reshaping income and employment verification through automation, while balancing speed, accuracy, and fairness in an industry ripe for digital transformation.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders and Brokers

4 Jul, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is showing varied regional trends. Overall inventory is rising, cooling some areas after a period of rapid price appreciation.

* **Statewide:** Median home prices are showing signs of stabilization or slight declines in some areas after significant gains in recent years.
* **South Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach):** Remains relatively expensive but experiencing a slowdown. Inventory is increasing, giving buyers more options. Price growth is moderating compared to 2021-2022.
* **Central Florida (Orlando, Tampa):** Previously a hotspot, this region is seeing more significant inventory increases and price adjustments. Affordability concerns are impacting demand.
* **Southwest Florida (Naples, Fort Myers):** Hurricane Ian’s impact is still a factor, influencing rebuilding and insurance costs. Specific areas experienced unique market dynamics.
* **Northeast Florida (Jacksonville):** Experiencing a more moderate pace of price appreciation compared to other regions, but still growing.
* **Interest Rates:** Higher mortgage rates are a key factor influencing affordability and dampening demand across all regions.
* **Inventory:** Overall inventory is increasing, moving away from the extreme seller’s market of previous years. However, inventory levels remain below pre-pandemic levels in most areas.
* **Days on Market:** Homes are taking longer to sell compared to the peak of the market, indicating a shift towards a more balanced market.
* **Luxury Market:** The luxury segment is also showing signs of slowing down after a period of strong performance.

3 Jul, 2025

Tomorrow is the 4th of July, the only time of the year Americans say the day and month in the correct order. We find ourselves in the traditional “dog days of summer” which refer to the hottest and most uncomfortable days typically occurring from July 3 to August 11 in the Northern Hemisphere. Did someone say “dog”? Thank you to David I. who sent along a story about how inflation shows up in the price of hot dogs at the yearly Coney Island display of gluttony. While President Trump continues to publicly berate Fed Chair Powell (but can’t fire him), it is important for lenders to remember that though the economic data is all backward looking, the economy is currently too strong to justify Fed rate cuts, given the inflation risk, or at least the volatility of tariff decisions. So, we sit. Besides, the bond market will move before the Fed. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Figure, which is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the banking, CU, home improvement, and (of course) IMB space embedding their technology, giving borrowers an experience they will rave about. Today’s has an interview with Optimal Blue’s Jeff McCarty on the growing importance of integrated, data-driven tools in secondary marketing to improve pricing precision, risk management, and efficiency, particularly as market volatility, product diversity, and AI adoption reshape the hedging and trading landscape.)

2 Jul, 2025

“Pro Tip: Here’s a friendly 4th of July reminder that absolutely no one is going to watch the videos of the fireworks you record on your phone.” You can bet anyone flying some place is watching the flight delays due to staffing and weather. You can bet that people are watching home price appreciation, especially in terms of home equity, HELOCs, and cash-out refinancing. Expect home price appreciation to slow (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing) due to increased supply, steady interest rates, and weaker economic conditions. (No one wants to go back to the 20 percent gains we saw in 2020 and 2021.) The Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey forecasts average home price growth of 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026. Zillow projects a 0.7% decline in U.S. home prices between May 2025 and May 2026 due to increased housing inventory. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects home prices to rise by 1.3% in 2025, followed by a 0.3% increase in 2026 and 2027. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Figure, which is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the banking, CU, home improvement, and (of course) IMB space embedding their technology, giving borrowers an experience they will rave about. Today’s has an interview with Halcyon’s Kirk Donaldson on the question, “Why is it so expensive to originate a mortgage?” as well as an exploration of how automation, compensation models, regulatory burdens, and tech interoperability could reshape costs and lead to a more efficient future.)