1 Jul, 2025

* **Current Context:** Florida mortgage rates mirror national trends, influenced heavily by Federal Reserve policy and inflation data.

* **Rate Fluctuations:** Rates experienced volatility in the past year, with periods of increase and decrease responding to economic signals.

* **Key Influencers:** Inflation reports, economic growth indicators (GDP, job numbers), and Federal Reserve announcements (interest rate decisions) are major drivers.

* **National Average vs. Florida:** Florida mortgage rates typically track closely with national averages, although local market conditions (housing supply, demand) can cause minor variations.

* **Projected Outlook:** Experts anticipate continued fluctuations in 2024, with potential for rate decreases if inflation cools down and the Federal Reserve pivots towards a more accommodative monetary policy.

* **Housing Affordability:** High rates have impacted housing affordability in Florida, a market already facing rising home prices.

25 Jun, 2025

* **Rising Rates:** Florida mortgage rates generally mirror national trends but can be influenced by local economic factors, insurance costs, and demand. Rates have been increasing due to inflation and Federal Reserve policies.

* **Current Averages:** As of late 2024, average 30-year fixed mortgage rates in Florida are hovering around 7-8%, but this fluctuates daily. 15-year fixed rates are generally lower, around 6-7%. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) offer initially lower rates but carry interest rate risk.

* **Key Factors Influencing Rates:** Credit score (740+ for best rates), down payment (20% avoids PMI), loan type (conventional, FHA, VA), and loan term significantly impact rates. Location within Florida can influence rates due to varying property taxes and insurance costs.

* **Getting the Best Deal:** Comparison shop from multiple lenders (banks, credit unions, mortgage brokers). Negotiate rates and fees. Consider improving credit score and increasing down payment. Look into first-time homebuyer programs and state-specific assistance. Understand the total cost of the loan, including fees (origination, appraisal, title).

20 Jun, 2025

With Thursday being a federal holiday, banks (and more importantly, the underlying market for mortgage related bonds) were closed.  This means that lenders were not able to update mortgage rates.  It turns out that it wouldn’t have mattered either way as the average lender has barely budged from Wednesday’s levels.  But let’s not miss an opportunity to deliver news that’s technically good even if only just.  Over the past 3 business days, average rates have fallen 0.05%.  This keeps us close to the lowest levels seen since April 4th with top tier 30yr fixed scenarios at 6.86 on the MND daily rate index. Given some of the news headlines this week, it bears repeating that this week’s Fed announcement has nothing to do with rates holding steady.  In fact, even if the Fed had cut rates (which was not seen as even a remote possibility by financial markets), mortgage rates could just as easily have moved higher.  

18 Jun, 2025

Today we hear from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We can expect no change to overnight fed funds. As pointed yesterday by Dr. Paul Brewbaker, the economist who spoke here at the MBA Hawai’i conference, the Fed can only shoot at one target at a time: inflation or employment. They have to pick one and have picked inflation. So far so good. Besides that, he tore into tariffs, and their result on what individuals and countries do in response to them as evidenced by what happened during the first Trump Administration: China moving its manufacturing facilities to non-tariff countries to circumvent the tariffs. But back to the Fed… Industry vet Brent Nyitray observed, “Meanwhile, inflation is almost to the target and Fed is running out of excuses to keep rates 100 basis points too tight. The Fed is making a bet that inflation will spike from tariffs, and that will dominate all other economic effects. At this point, they are not being cautious; they are being obstinate.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TRUE. TRUE cuts time to critical loan events from days to minutes by using background AI workers to instantly validate data and automate underwriting decisions. Today’s has an Interview with A&D Mortgage’s Rich Hoffmann on tips and tricks for a successful merger between two mortgage companies, and how product expansion efforts will separate successful origination companies in the future.) Products, Software, and Services for Brokers and Lenders

17 Jun, 2025

In Spain, Spaniards are shooting water pistols at foreigners to protest the impact of mass tourism: it has created a housing crunch. Tourism in the United States is down considerably, especially from Canada, impacting the economy here on Oahu and in other locations. But in the U.S. the inventory of properties for sale is increasing, and the market has turned for buyers at the expense of sellers. New listings rose 5.2 percent YOY, active inventory is up almost 28 percent year-over-year, days on the market have increased by 6 days, but home prices are essentially flat. Sellers at the lower end aren’t budging… yet. At the higher end, LOs tell me that the market feels “heavy.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TRUE. TRUE cuts time to critical loan events from days to minutes by using background AI workers to instantly validate data and automate underwriting decisions. Today’s has an interview with SALT Lending’s Shawn Owen on how digital assets like Bitcoin are reshaping mortgage lending, from collateral risk and fraud prevention to construction financing, regulatory hurdles, and the future of tokenized mortgage markets.) Products, Software, and Services for Brokers and Lenders “Is your loan servicing operation overwhelmed by fragmented and manual processes, inconsistent action handling, or compliance blind spots? In our latest blog, ‘From Chaos to Clarity: How Workflow Transforms Loan Servicing Operations,’ we explore how intelligent automation can help you streamline and automate complexity, improve compliance, and respond faster to borrower needs. Discover six powerful ways workflow enhances standardization, efficiency, visibility, accountability, data use, and the user experience—each brought to life through real-world servicing scenarios. Learn how organizations like yours are eliminating manual errors, accelerating response times, and simplifying complex decisioning with intelligent workflow automation. If you’re looking to reduce the risk and costs of single-point solutions, improve consistency, and stay ahead in a rapidly changing industry, this blog is a must-read. See how organizations are achieving these outcomes with the help of a flexible, proven solution like CLARIFIRE®.”

16 Jun, 2025

– Florida’s real estate market is experiencing a correction after a period of rapid growth during the pandemic.

– Inventory is increasing: Active listings are up significantly year-over-year in many Florida markets, offering buyers more choices. Example: Some markets saw a 100%+ increase in active listings.

– Price appreciation is slowing: Price growth is decelerating, and some areas are seeing price reductions. Median sales prices are stabilizing or experiencing slight declines in select regions.

– Interest rates are impacting affordability: Rising mortgage rates are increasing borrowing costs, cooling demand, and affecting buyer purchasing power. Rates have climbed from historic lows in 2021 to levels not seen in years.

– Migration patterns are evolving: While still attracting new residents, the pace of in-migration may be slowing compared to the pandemic peak. The composition of newcomers and their preferred destinations within Florida are shifting.

– Insurance costs are a major concern: High property insurance rates are a significant factor affecting affordability and market sentiment, particularly in coastal areas. Some homeowners are facing dramatically increased premiums or difficulty obtaining coverage.

– Investment properties are shifting: Rental yields may be squeezed by higher interest rates and insurance costs, affecting the attractiveness of investment properties. Vacancy rates might also start to shift.

– Key markets to watch: Specific areas like Miami, Tampa, Orlando, and Southwest Florida are exhibiting varying trends and should be assessed individually. Some areas are more resilient than others.

14 Jun, 2025

* **Inventory:** Increased significantly in many Florida markets compared to 2022/early 2023, offering more buyer choice. Some areas are experiencing a surplus.
* **Interest Rates:** Elevated mortgage rates (fluctuating around 6-7% as of late 2023/early 2024) are impacting affordability and buyer demand.
* **Price Appreciation:** Slower appreciation compared to the peak boom years. Some markets are experiencing price corrections or stabilization. Appreciation varies widely by location.
* **Days on Market:** Increased. Homes are taking longer to sell compared to the rapid sales seen previously.
* **Sales Volume:** Decreased. Fewer homes are being sold compared to the peak of the market.
* **Cash Buyers:** Still prevalent, especially in luxury markets. Florida continues to attract out-of-state buyers with cash.
* **Insurance Costs:** Rising insurance premiums are a significant concern for Florida homeowners, impacting affordability and property values, especially in coastal areas.
* **Property Taxes:** Continue to rise, adding to the overall cost of homeownership.
* **Migration:** While still positive overall, migration patterns may be shifting due to factors like affordability and remote work trends in other states.

13 Jun, 2025

After a Memorial Day-induced lull, mortgage application activity rebounded sharply last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. Both purchase and refinance demand climbed to their highest levels in over a month, with the composite index rising 12.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis.  “Coming out of the Memorial Day holiday, mortgage applications increased to the highest level in over a month, driven by growth in both purchase and refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economy, homebuyers seem to be taking advantage of loosening housing inventory in certain markets.” Refinance applications jumped 16% on the week and are now 28% higher than the same week last year. Purchase apps rose 10% week-over-week and are now running 20% above 2024 levels, marking a continuation of the strong year-over-year gains seen in recent reports. There are only 2 other weeks with higher purchase index readings going back to May 2023, and they were only barely higher. It should be noted that refi index, while not officially seasonally adjusted  does include a smoothing adjustment for holiday weeks.  Last week’s data noted a Memorial Day adjustment, one that is not present in the current week’s data.  Because certain holidays fall on a different day of the week, adjusting for them is an imperfect science. In all likelihood, if we could completely remove seasonality and holiday effects, last week’s refi index would have been stronger and the present week would have shown a much smaller increase.

10 Jun, 2025

“Why is Ireland so expensive? House prices are always Dublin’.” Those days are temporarily over in the United States, and the pendulum is quickly swinging to more inventory and price cuts in many places and price points. (If you’re wondering where your client can pick up an average home for cheap: Most Affordable U.S. Cities to Buy a Home for $300k or less.) Of all the major metro markets, Phoenix boasted the greatest number of listings with price cuts, at 31.3%, up more than 7 percentage points from the same period last year amid rising inventory. (The typical home in Phoenix costs $525,000, representing a drop of more than 3% from May 2024.) Here in Tampa, citizens saw the second-biggest share of discounted listings, at just below 30%. The median list price in the Sunshine State market stood at $417,500, having shed 1.6% compared with the same time last year. Coming in at No. 3, Denver had 29.4% of local home sellers slash prices on their properties last month. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are presented by Flyhomes, the leading wholesale lender for Buy Before You Sell solutions. Whether your borrowers run into DTI issues, need to unlock home equity for down payment, make a stronger, cash-like offer, or even move potentially with no cash out of pocket, Flyhomes provides a full suite of financial products to help them move forward, before selling their current home. Hear an interview with LoanLogics’ Roby Robertson on the proliferation of the non-QM mortgage market, examining its key growth drivers, borrower trends, technological advancements, and how lenders are navigating risk and compliance amid shifting economic conditions.)

9 Jun, 2025

For the next several days I am in Florida, in mortgage meetings and the MBAF, and in Saturday’s Commentary I noted the intense flurry of conference activity this week and last (“the MBA’s Chairman’s Conference, New Jersey MBA, the MBA Florida, EPM TAG, MISMO Spring Summit, The Gathering…). One continuing theme, to varying degrees, is conjecture about Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and their role in lending. By many accounts, the Agencies are “driving 10 mph in the fast lane.” A focus on ending their conservatorship, which conference goers were told by FHFA Director Pulte last month in New York, would begin in earnest in 2026, apparently has moved to… “now.” (More Agency news below.) A key issue continues to be whether the government’s role in the future will include an explicit or implicit guarantee if we see another 2008. It would be helpful if it minimized the impact on Agency rates, because those rates have a ripple effect through other mortgage products. Our MBA will be focused on educating regulators and Congress about this, since most were not around during previous attempts at removing them. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Flyhomes. The Flyhomes Guaranteed Backup Contract, available in all 50 states, gives borrowers a bona fide purchase agreement on their departing residence, helping them exclude that mortgage from DTI calculations and remove the home sale contingency when buying their next home, all in under 24 hours. Hear an interview with First American’s Odeta Kushi on why Americans are staying in their homes longer than ever, the economic and policy forces behind this trend, and what it means for the future of housing mobility and market recovery.)