6 Jun, 2025

Today is the 81st anniversary of D-Day. “My granddad was responsible for 25 downed German planes in WW II. To this day, he is still known as the worst mechanic the Luftwaffe ever had.” On the anniversary of D-Day, let’s hope the entire world is not involved in a war again, although humans have had a recurring theme of conflict. Scaling things down significantly but keeping with the “recurring” theme… Lenders hope that applications and locks are recurring, but it is continuing to be sketchy. According to Curinos’ new proprietary application index, refinances decreased 12% week over week and decreased 28% in May; the purchase index decreased 16% week over week and increased 6% for May as a whole. But in May 2025 funded mortgage volume increased 12% YoY and increased 6% MoM. Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures, and drills into this data further here. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Today’s has an interview with Jake Perkins on the new Chrisman Marketplace and how it is adding value to the industry.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders Following a highly successful launch, Origination Boost, spearheaded by Mandi Feely-Swain, EVP of Premier Mortgage Resources and Idaho’s #1 Loan Originator, is proving to be a game-changer for loan officers. Now in its second year, Origination Boost is not just maintaining momentum; it’s raising the bar and helping loan officers move closer to their goals. The program’s twice-monthly coaching calls continue to offer tactical strategies and high-level mindset coaching, keeping participants laser-focused on results. The exclusive Origination Boost app adds even more value, offering on-the-go accountability tools and tracking systems that drive measurable production increases. Feely-Swain recently announced new incentives for those participating in Origination Boost, including free marketing services when goals are met. Learn more: info@pmrloans.com.

5 Jun, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is experiencing a shifting landscape.

* **Inventory:** Increasing, but remains below historical averages in many areas. Months supply is trending up suggesting more buyer power.
* **Interest Rates:** Elevated mortgage rates are impacting affordability and cooling buyer demand.
* **Price Growth:** Slowing considerably from the rapid appreciation of 2021-2022; some markets seeing price corrections. Median sales prices still elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.
* **Sales Volume:** Down year-over-year across most of the state.
* **Population Growth:** Continues, particularly in certain metro areas, but at a slower pace than in previous years.
* **Economic Factors:** Florida’s economy remains relatively strong, but inflation and national economic trends are exerting influence.
* **Regional Variations:** Market conditions differ significantly from region to region within Florida (e.g., coastal vs. inland, North Florida vs. South Florida).
* **Days on Market:** Increasing, indicating homes are staying on the market longer.
* **Foreclosure Rates:** Remain low overall, but are slightly increasing from historic lows.

5 Jun, 2025

The last time I was in Florida I saw a bumper sticker that said, “I thought growing old would take longer.” This weekend I return to the Sunshine State (the MBAF’s Eastern Secondary is coming up), and I mention this because the state is the epicenter of HOA fee escalations, hurricane damage, and insurance woes. But wait! An analysis based on examination of the 45 insurers responsible for personal property insurance in Florida sees the state pulling out of its spiral after eight brutal years of losses. The personal property insurance industry reported an underwriting gain of $207 million in 2024, a big turnaround from the $174 million underwriting loss in 2023, due in large part to a legislative reform that made it somewhat more palatable to do business but an expensive one, as direct premiums reached $11 billion in 2024, more than double the $5 billion seen in 2020. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Today’s has an interview with Rob Chrisman on how the mixed messages from the Trump administration about the future of the GSEs are impacting those in the mortgage industry.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders The average American homeowner has access to a significant source of funds in their home’s equity, and March 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor data shows that they are finally starting to tap into it. Retention and recapture remain a heavy focus for lenders as the market continues to shift, and with the right tools, home equity can provide an opportunity to develop stickier relationships with customers. But it goes beyond simply offering customers home equity products; it’s about providing them with a convenient equity application, valuation and lending process through powerful digital tools. Read the latest blog to learn how ICE is helping lenders unlock new opportunities in home equity lending.

5 Jun, 2025

The last time I was in Florida I saw a bumper sticker that said, “I thought growing old would take longer.” This weekend I return to the Sunshine State (the MBAF’s Eastern Secondary is coming up), and I mention this because the state is the epicenter of HOA fee escalations, hurricane damage, and insurance woes. But wait! An analysis based on examination of the 45 insurers responsible for personal property insurance in Florida sees the state pulling out of its spiral after eight brutal years of losses. The personal property insurance industry reported an underwriting gain of $207 million in 2024, a big turnaround from the $174 million underwriting loss in 2023, due in large part to a legislative reform that made it somewhat more palatable to do business but an expensive one, as direct premiums reached $11 billion in 2024, more than double the $5 billion seen in 2020. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Today’s has an interview with Rob Chrisman on how the mixed messages from the Trump administration about the future of the GSEs are impacting those in the mortgage industry.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders The average American homeowner has access to a significant source of funds in their home’s equity, and March 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor data shows that they are finally starting to tap into it. Retention and recapture remain a heavy focus for lenders as the market continues to shift, and with the right tools, home equity can provide an opportunity to develop stickier relationships with customers. But it goes beyond simply offering customers home equity products; it’s about providing them with a convenient equity application, valuation and lending process through powerful digital tools. Read the latest blog to learn how ICE is helping lenders unlock new opportunities in home equity lending.

5 Jun, 2025

The last time I was in Florida I saw a bumper sticker that said, “I thought growing old would take longer.” This weekend I return to the Sunshine State (the MBAF’s Eastern Secondary is coming up), and I mention this because the state is the epicenter of HOA fee escalations, hurricane damage, and insurance woes. But wait! An analysis based on examination of the 45 insurers responsible for personal property insurance in Florida sees the state pulling out of its spiral after eight brutal years of losses. The personal property insurance industry reported an underwriting gain of $207 million in 2024, a big turnaround from the $174 million underwriting loss in 2023, due in large part to a legislative reform that made it somewhat more palatable to do business but an expensive one, as direct premiums reached $11 billion in 2024, more than double the $5 billion seen in 2020. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Today’s has an interview with Rob Chrisman on how the mixed messages from the Trump administration about the future of the GSEs are impacting those in the mortgage industry.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders The average American homeowner has access to a significant source of funds in their home’s equity, and March 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor data shows that they are finally starting to tap into it. Retention and recapture remain a heavy focus for lenders as the market continues to shift, and with the right tools, home equity can provide an opportunity to develop stickier relationships with customers. But it goes beyond simply offering customers home equity products; it’s about providing them with a convenient equity application, valuation and lending process through powerful digital tools. Read the latest blog to learn how ICE is helping lenders unlock new opportunities in home equity lending.

5 Jun, 2025

The last time I was in Florida I saw a bumper sticker that said, “I thought growing old would take longer.” This weekend I return to the Sunshine State (the MBAF’s Eastern Secondary is coming up), and I mention this because the state is the epicenter of HOA fee escalations, hurricane damage, and insurance woes. But wait! An analysis based on examination of the 45 insurers responsible for personal property insurance in Florida sees the state pulling out of its spiral after eight brutal years of losses. The personal property insurance industry reported an underwriting gain of $207 million in 2024, a big turnaround from the $174 million underwriting loss in 2023, due in large part to a legislative reform that made it somewhat more palatable to do business but an expensive one, as direct premiums reached $11 billion in 2024, more than double the $5 billion seen in 2020. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Today’s has an interview with Rob Chrisman on how the mixed messages from the Trump administration about the future of the GSEs are impacting those in the mortgage industry.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders The average American homeowner has access to a significant source of funds in their home’s equity, and March 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor data shows that they are finally starting to tap into it. Retention and recapture remain a heavy focus for lenders as the market continues to shift, and with the right tools, home equity can provide an opportunity to develop stickier relationships with customers. But it goes beyond simply offering customers home equity products; it’s about providing them with a convenient equity application, valuation and lending process through powerful digital tools. Read the latest blog to learn how ICE is helping lenders unlock new opportunities in home equity lending.

5 Jun, 2025

The last time I was in Florida I saw a bumper sticker that said, “I thought growing old would take longer.” This weekend I return to the Sunshine State (the MBAF’s Eastern Secondary is coming up), and I mention this because the state is the epicenter of HOA fee escalations, hurricane damage, and insurance woes. But wait! An analysis based on examination of the 45 insurers responsible for personal property insurance in Florida sees the state pulling out of its spiral after eight brutal years of losses. The personal property insurance industry reported an underwriting gain of $207 million in 2024, a big turnaround from the $174 million underwriting loss in 2023, due in large part to a legislative reform that made it somewhat more palatable to do business but an expensive one, as direct premiums reached $11 billion in 2024, more than double the $5 billion seen in 2020. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Today’s has an interview with Rob Chrisman on how the mixed messages from the Trump administration about the future of the GSEs are impacting those in the mortgage industry.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders The average American homeowner has access to a significant source of funds in their home’s equity, and March 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor data shows that they are finally starting to tap into it. Retention and recapture remain a heavy focus for lenders as the market continues to shift, and with the right tools, home equity can provide an opportunity to develop stickier relationships with customers. But it goes beyond simply offering customers home equity products; it’s about providing them with a convenient equity application, valuation and lending process through powerful digital tools. Read the latest blog to learn how ICE is helping lenders unlock new opportunities in home equity lending.

4 Jun, 2025

As the world is watching the chicks learn to fly on the eagle cam, in the human world there are more “For Sale” signs. You know that problem we’ve had with inventory for years? Although all real estate is local, perhaps the inventory issue is over: U.S. home sellers are sitting on nearly $700 billion worth of listings, an all-time high. In addition, the U.S. housing market has nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers, the most on record. You can guess the impact on home prices if it plays out. Keeping on with stats, the NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said existing home sales will increase by 6% in 2025 and by 11% in 2026 during the “Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum” at the NAR 2025 REALTORS® Legislative Meetings. Yun forecasted that new-home sales will rise by 10% in 2025 and by 5% in 2026, the median home price will climb by 3% in 2025 and by 4% in 2026 and that mortgage rates will average 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and 6.1% in 2026. “The housing market remains very difficult at the moment… Part of the delay in recovery is because the Federal Reserve has changed its outlook and appears to be on pause for a longer period.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Hear an interview with Partners Credit’s Tracey King on the evolving conversation around credit costs, what lenders should understand about FICO’s role, and how early credit data signals provide a valuable lens into future market activity.)

2 Jun, 2025

New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data

It’s not that this morning’s ISM data failed to help the bond market. In fact, it accounted for the highest volume of the day and the lowest yields of the day. But those yields were seized as an opportunity for seller to do what they’d already showed up to do earlier in the day. Bottom line, we had a bit of excess strength at the end of last week due to month-end trading and now a bit of a reversal as the new month gets underway. Yields are still nearer the lower end of the recent range, which makes today’s modest correction all the less threatening. 

Econ Data / Events

S&P Manufacturing PMI

52.0 vs 52.3 f’cast

ISM Manufacturing

48.5 vs 49.5 f’cast, 48.7 prev

ISM Employment

46.8 vs 46.5 prev

ISM Prices

69.4 vs 70.2 f’cast

Market Movement Recap

10:03 AM Slightly weaker overnight, but recovering a bit after ISM data.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.425

01:20 PM More weakness into PM hours.  MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up almost 6bps at 4.463

05:09 PM Modest recovery into the close.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.446

2 Jun, 2025

Any lender or mortgage loan originator hoping for lower rates to spur business is learning that hope is not a strategy. “Rob, you’re always talking about inflation, so here’s an example of wage inflation: In the Bay Area we just paid a plumber $212/hour to install a kitchen faucet. Granted, he has decades of experience, but still…” The markets are “tariff-ied”: inflation is expected to increase, shipping is down, and growth has slowed… after all, someone has to pay for the increased cost of goods (although who knows what will happen given the back and forth in the courts). In addition, I have not heard a single person suggest that privatizing Freddie and Fannie would result in lower mortgage rates. Many believe that once released from conservatorship, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could need to hold more capital to absorb losses, the capital coming from increased guarantee fees charged to lenders. In addition, upon release, unless there’s an “explicit guarantee” or backstop from Congress, investors may demand higher returns to account for increased risk. But Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae wouldn’t be released from conservatorship if doing so puts upward pressure on mortgage rates/mortgage spreads. Investment manager Pimco, and others, await. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Hear an interview with CHLA’s Scott Olson on the rising costs of credit scores, the monopoly power of FICO, and how increased competition, from VantageScore to new credit scoring models, could reshape the mortgage lending landscape.)