22 May, 2025

Yesterday I headed west from the conference while my son Robbie headed south to the nCino nSight event. But while in Manhattan Dawn S. asked me, “How do you know if there’s a vegan at your party?” Answer: “They’ll tell you.” It’s not hard to find someone to tell you why the “Sell America” trade is rampant in the financial markets, impacting rates and borrowers, and reminding us that politics and lending are indeed entwined. The U.S. should curb its “ever-increasing” debt burden, said Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, in an interview with the Financial Times published Tuesday. Recall that Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to rising government debt and interest payments, and as fiscal analysts raise concerns over Donald Trump’s proposal to extend and expand tax cuts. Gopinath noted that recent developments, including a truce on tariffs between the US and China and a US-UK trade agreement, are positive, but said “very elevated” trade policy uncertainty continues to affect the US economy. The IMF lowered its US growth forecast in April, citing trade tensions as a significant factor. The nation’s growing debt reflects a persistent imbalance between government spending and revenue, with no clear reversal in sight: regardless of party, no politician seems to be able to say no. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Xactus and its commitment to the continued transformation of the mortgage verification industry. Pioneering a new class of technology, “Intelligent Verification,” Xactus is redefining how the industry originates and services mortgages. Today’s has an interview with Finance of America’s Ashley Smith and Ryan Schmidt on why reverse mortgages deserve more attention from the broader mortgage industry and what’s holding back adoption.)

20 May, 2025

* **Florida Housing Market:** Experiencing shifts; no longer the frenzied buying of 2020-2022.
* **Interest Rates:** Significantly higher than recent years; impacting affordability. (e.g., hovering around 7% as of late 2023/early 2024).
* **Inventory:** Rising in many Florida markets; increasing buyer options and negotiating power.
* **Price Appreciation:** Slowing or even declining in some areas; correcting after rapid growth. Some metro areas have seen price reductions year-over-year.
* **Time on Market:** Homes are staying on the market longer than in the previous couple of years.
* **Property Insurance:** Remains a major concern; premiums are high and availability is limited in certain areas.
* **Population Growth:** Florida’s population is still growing, but the rate has cooled off slightly.
* **Affordability:** Becoming a greater challenge due to high prices, interest rates, and insurance costs.
* **Foreclosure Rates:** Have risen slightly but remain relatively low overall.
* **Investment Potential:** Still exists, particularly in areas with strong rental demand or long-term growth prospects.

20 May, 2025

A mullah, a rabbi, and a priest walk into a bar here in New York. The bartender says, “What is this, some kind of joke?” What isn’t a joke is people’s pay, and trends in mortgage compensation, and this month’s STRATMOR’s piece is titled, “Compensation is Still Lender’s Largest Expense.” What also isn’t a joke is likely, or at least possible, further consolidation in the residential mortgage business. There are still over 4,000 institutions reporting HMDA data. The MBA’s Chief Economist Michael Fratantoni (speaking with his array of bandages due to a bicycling accident) told us yesterday that the MBA expects dollar volume slightly higher than $2 trillion for 2025, up 16 percent from 2024. Unit-wise, probably more relevant to the “business” of lenders and vendors, is expected to be 5.7 million units, 14 percent higher in 2025 than 2024. So, if you hear, “A little better than last year” this sums it up. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Xactus and its commitment to the continued transformation of the mortgage verification industry. Pioneering a new class of technology, “Intelligent Verification,” Xactus is redefining how the industry originates and services mortgages. Today’s has an interview with BOK’s Chris Maloney on Agency MBS issuance trends, prepayment speeds, and why the money supply still matters.) Software, Products, and Services for Lenders and Brokers Merlin’s beard! Turns out you don’t need a crystal ball to see where your margins are heading, you just need to Ask Obi. Available at no additional cost for Optimal Blue clients, Ask Obi is an AI assistant built for capital markets executives who want fast, clear answers to complex business questions. Wondering which branches issued the most concessions last week? Or where margins shifted most last quarter? Just ask. Ask Obi searches across Optimal Blue’s entire platform and delivers real-time insights, no data analyst required. First previewed at the 2025 Optimal Blue Summit, Ask Obi has been tested, refined, and is ready to help lenders see their operations with unprecedented clarity. The more Optimal Blue tools you use, the more powerful Ask Obi’s insights become. Because in this market, knowing exactly where to steer next isn’t magic, it’s just good technology. Learn more about Ask Obi.

19 May, 2025

People who don’t attend the National Secondary here in Manhattan wonder what happens behind the scenes. Here you go. We had the MCT elevator failure last night, inconveniencing a carload of mortgage folks between floors. There is definitely an older crowd at the conference. I was walking by one fellow who had asked a non-QM rep for her number, and she replied “140 over 95.” Fewer wing tips and high heels, and more tennis shoes and talk of Fab Feet products. What are capital markets personnel talking about in the hallways? One issue is the rating agency Moody’s cutting the credit quality of the United States given our debt situation: it certainly won’t help lending rates. (Our nation isn’t approaching B or C or subprime status, but the current budget proposal adding trillions of dollars of debt won’t help.) Fox News reports that President Trump warned Walmart to eat the cost of the tariffs instead of raising prices, despite thin retail margins. The MBA’s expectation is that the U.S. economy will slow down due to the tariffs, and that their impact on the new home market, appliance cost, HVAC cost, will hurt housing affordability, not help it. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Xactus and its commitment to the continued transformation of the mortgage verification industry. Pioneering a new class of technology, “Intelligent Verification,” Xactus is redefining how the industry originates and services mortgages. Today’s has an interview with Xactus’ Greg Holmes on how the company’s consultative approach, intelligent verification, and strategic partnerships are helping lenders.)

18 May, 2025

– Florida’s housing market is showing signs of cooling, with inventory levels increasing in many areas.
– Interest rates remain elevated, impacting affordability and potentially deterring buyers. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy significantly influences mortgage rates.
– Florida experienced rapid population growth in recent years, driving up housing demand and prices. However, growth may be slowing, impacting future demand.
– Home prices in Florida have seen substantial appreciation, particularly during the pandemic. Price corrections are possible in some markets.
– Insurance costs in Florida are a significant factor, with premiums being among the highest in the nation and impacting affordability.
– Property taxes vary by county and municipality, and can significantly affect the overall cost of homeownership.
– Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts, including rising sea levels and increased hurricane risk, potentially affecting property values and insurance rates.
– Affordability remains a challenge for many Floridians, with income growth not keeping pace with rising housing costs.
– Cash buyers have been a significant presence in the Florida market, contributing to increased competition and price appreciation.

17 May, 2025

Florida mortgage rates are influenced by national trends but can vary slightly due to local market conditions. As of late 2023/early 2024, rates have been hovering around 7% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, after peaking above 8%. These higher rates significantly impact affordability; every 1% increase in mortgage rate reduces purchasing power by approximately 10%. Florida’s strong population growth and housing demand continue to put upward pressure on prices, even amidst higher interest rates. Despite cooling from pandemic highs, inventory remains tight in many Florida markets. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions are a key driver of mortgage rate fluctuations. For example, Fed rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation directly impact borrowing costs.

16 May, 2025

This weekend is when many of us head to Manhattan for the MBA’s National Secondary event. For those flying in, check your ticket: NJ Transit’s on strike. Flying into Newark? Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy explains Why He Canceled Wife’s Newark Flight. “…not for safety but because I needed her flight to fly. She had to get there.” That’s comforting. Here’s a map of every passenger plane in the skies at this instant. (Page down once or twice.) I am not convinced that we need to slash air traffic controllers. But back to mortgages… I can certainly think of four people who are going to the conference, and on today’s episode of Last Word at 10am PT, Brian Vieaux, Courtney Thompson, Christy Soukhamneut, and Kevin Peranio dig into what’s driving a jump in mortgage applications and why acquisitions are starting to cool off. They’ll also break down how the latest budget moves in D.C. could shake things up across the housing industry. (Today’s podcast can be found here and Sponsored by TRUE and its Mortgage Operations Service (MOS) AI background worker, which transforms borrower documents into instant, trustworthy data for real-time decisioning. TRUE helps lenders accelerate decisions, cut costs, and deliver superior borrower experience, all without a $100M tech budget. Hear an interview with Kind Lending’s Delfino Aguilar on a steadfast commitment to broker-centric service, a culture that empowers people as the true competitive edge, and forward-looking partnerships that simplify broker success.)

15 May, 2025

Florida mortgage rates are mirroring national trends, exhibiting volatility in response to economic data and Federal Reserve policy. As of late 2024, rates are fluctuating, with recent weeks showing slight decreases after a period of increases. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in Florida is hovering around 7-7.5%, closely aligning with the national average. Factors influencing these rates include inflation reports, GDP growth, and the Fed’s decisions on the federal funds rate. Purchase demand in Florida remains sensitive to rate changes, impacting the housing market. Refinance activity remains subdued due to rates being higher than those seen in recent years. Expert forecasts anticipate continued fluctuations throughout the year, with potential for further decreases depending on economic performance and Fed actions.

15 May, 2025

“There’s a splendid saying about the definition of an economist being someone who “will know tomorrow why the things they predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.” Everyone’s warning everyone about everything these days: Recessions, inflation, housing price collapses, the loss of democracy, Congress becoming unnecessary. The bigger the prediction, the bigger the headlines.” How about predictions on the path into the future of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae? A safe bet is privatization, but how? FHFA Director Bill Pulte is speaking at the MBA’s conference next week. We’ll see if he says anything different about Freddie and Fannie than this interview on CNBC yesterday… or anything we didn’t already know. Speaking of policy and politics, while he, along with many mortgage lawyers and compliance folks, attends the MBA’s Legal Issues and Regulatory Conference in San Diego this week, Attorney Brian Levy explores the uncertain future of disparate impact theory in mortgage lending as the political tides shift. With a blend of legal insight and sharp commentary, Levy questions whether DI, and by extension, DEI, can survive a second Trump administration. Is this the end of an era, or just another spin on the regulatory merry-go-round? (Today’s podcast can be found here and Sponsored by TRUE and its Mortgage Operations Service (MOS) AI background worker, which transforms borrower documents into instant, trustworthy data for real-time decisioning. TRUE helps lenders accelerate decisions, cut costs, and deliver superior borrower experience, all without a $100M tech budget. Hear an interview with TRUE.ai’s Steve Butler on automating back-end tasks to reshaping the roles of originators with AI, while uncovering the biggest opportunities, misconceptions, and strategic considerations for navigating uncertain markets.)

14 May, 2025

As Roy Cohn once instructed a young Donald Trump, much can be accomplished by attacking first and dealing with the consequences later. I get opinions from both sides: “Rob, when are you going to wise up? Yesterday’s Commentary discussed a lopsided pro-Trump view of the recent tariff activity, and how the changes may impact mortgage rates. But China made no concessions. By now, most of us are familiar with this pattern: Trump makes big claims about what his tariffs can get, only for him to later back down without the other country giving up anything meaningful. It happened with Mexico, Canada, and most of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ levies. Despite his claims, the United States seems to need other countries’ trade as much as they need ours, diminishing Trump’s negotiating position. Meanwhile, our financial markets are jacked around, and our potential borrowers are afraid to pull the trigger. Your readers should keep that in mind.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and Sponsored by TRUE and its Mortgage Operations Service (MOS) AI background worker, which transforms borrower documents into instant, trustworthy data for real-time decisioning. TRUE helps lenders accelerate decisions, cut costs, and deliver superior borrower experience, all without a $100M tech budget. Hear an interview with Hometap’s Josh Gaffney on the evolving regulatory landscape for Home Equity Investments (HEIs), highlighting state-by-state approaches, industry-led initiatives, and what an ideal regulatory framework could look like as the market matures.)