13 May, 2025

No one in places like Florida or Myrtle Beach or Colorado’s Glenwood Springs wants to wake up to a headline, sensationalist or not, saying, “Vacation homes (about 7 million in the U.S.) are being dumped at a rapid rate as fresh fears of a housing market crash, and a shrinking pool of renters, rattle sellers. “The number of people buying second homes has plunged to its lowest level since records began, and is under a third of what it was during the pandemic boom. A toxic mix of sky-high mortgage rates, soaring maintenance costs, and a widespread return-to-office push is fueling the trend.” Mortgage rates and the economy will certainly be a topic at the upcoming NY conference, as well as today’s Capital Markets Wrap, sponsored by Polly, at 12PM PT where the panelists will analyze the Fed’s recent meeting and its potential impact on market trends. They’ll also discuss the return of focus to economic data amid steadier volatility, changes in tariffs, and how technology is enhancing transparency and efficiency in capital markets. (Today’s podcast can be found here and Sponsored by TRUE and its Mortgage Operations Service (MOS) AI background worker, which transforms borrower documents into instant, trustworthy data for real-time decisioning. TRUE helps lenders accelerate decisions, cut costs, and deliver superior borrower experience, all without a $100M tech budget. Hear an Interview with Servbank’s Luke Jensen on how servicers are leading the way in AI and automation, and revolutionizing customer experience with innovative, loan-level customized correspondence solutions.)

12 May, 2025

Nearly a thousand of us head to Manhattan in less than a week for the MBA’s Secondary Conference. In 2025 Q1, the median asking rent in New York City registered at $3,397, an increase of $179, or 5.6%, compared with a year ago. Sounds appropriate, given wage growth. In other rental news, the Missouri legislature passed a bill allowing landlords to discriminate against low-income renters. The Missouri Senate gave final approval to House Bill 595 which would prevent cities from enacting certain renter protections. This Bill was prompted by local legislation in some communities, most notably Kansas City, which bans landlords from denying leases to renters on the grounds that they receive housing assistance. Bill 595 would prevent cities from banning that practice, sometimes called source-of-income discrimination. One of the most common types of housing assistance is federal Section 8 housing vouchers, which allow low-income renters to have a portion of their rent covered by the government. State and federal government policy will be one of the topics on today’s episode of Now Next Later at 10AM PT. Sasha and Jeremy sit down with Taylor Stork, President of the Community Home Lenders of America, to reflect on CHLA’s recent Spring Fly-in in Washington, D.C., major policy discussions, key industry concerns, and how mortgage professionals can remain involved in shaping the future of lending. (Today’s podcast can be found here and Sponsored by TRUE and its Mortgage Operations Service (MOS) AI background worker, which transforms borrower documents into instant, trustworthy data for real-time decisioning. TRUE helps lenders accelerate decisions, cut costs, and deliver superior borrower experience, all without a $100M tech budget. Hear an interview with Cotality’s Selma Hepp on the complex dynamics of the 2025 spring housing market, offering a nuanced view of the pressures and opportunities shaping today’s buyers, sellers, and lenders.)

9 May, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is experiencing a shift.

* **Inventory:** Rising, but still below pre-pandemic levels.
* **Interest Rates:** Elevated, impacting affordability and buyer demand.
* **Price Growth:** Slowing significantly; some markets seeing price declines.
* **Sales Volume:** Down year-over-year.
* **Days on Market:** Increasing, indicating less urgency.
* **Migration:** Continues to be a factor, but net migration has slowed down slightly.
* **Foreclosure rates:** remain relatively low compared to historical averages.
* **Median Sales Price (Statewide, Single-Family Homes):** Fluctuating, requiring close monitoring of local markets.
* **Rental Market:** Showing signs of cooling in some areas, adding potential pressure on investor-owned properties.

9 May, 2025

Here’s something that our Fed can’t do anything about, inflation-wise: coconut prices have doubled due to extreme weather events. (More on weather and climate below.) The Federal Reserve doesn’t control U.S. property taxes either, and they’ve jumped an average of 10.4 percent between 2021 and 2023, with wide variations across the 50 largest metro areas, from just $1,091 in Birmingham to nearly $10,000 in New York City, according to a new LendingTree analysis. Homeowners now pay a median of $2,969 annually, with the sharpest increases seen in Tampa, Indianapolis, and Dallas, while Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee saw the smallest hikes. Conference admittance prices are also on the rise. “Rob, are you hearing that non-MBA groups are giving out comp passes to their events because of the expense and lack of interest?” No comment. You’re better asking the organizations yourself. But yes, in general, many are back in the cost-cutting mode again, and the first to go are non-MBA, regional, and state events. Choose wisely! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by HomeEQ, the fully digital HELOC from Arc Home, which empowers brokers to quickly provide borrowers with easy access to their home equity. Brokers can benefit from competitive compensation, along with comprehensive training and a complete marketing plan designed to help them re-engage former clients and grow their business. Hear an interview with Jeremy Potter and Paul Gigliotti from the Mortgage Innovators Conference on AI’s ultimate use-case for the industry and what it will free people up to do.)

8 May, 2025

“Why did the homeowner take so long in remodeling his home? He had trouble with da siding.” There are LOs, or correspondent investors, who have spent months or years building up their renovation referral book of business. I am sure that they saw this coming with the Trump tariff policies: A quarter of large renovation projects could be scrapped or considerably scaled back because tariffs make them cost-prohibitive, according to new research from Zonda. Meanwhile, Robbie Chrisman reports that Day #1 of the California MBA’s Mortgage Innovators Conference in Huntington Beach delivered a deep dive into how private equity is shaping the future of the mortgage industry, with leaders from Redwood Trust, Andromeda, and FundingShield highlighting capital’s growing role in innovation, risk management, and consumer experience. The afternoon pivoted to the power and pitfalls of AI, as panels and tech demos explored cutting-edge tools transforming lending operations, from compliance automation to borrower engagement. Sessions emphasized the urgent need for strategic implementation, regulatory alignment, and customer-focused tech to stay competitive in a rapidly evolving market, setting the tone for a high-impact, tech-forward year ahead. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by HomeEQ, the fully digital HELOC from Arc Home, which empowers brokers to quickly provide borrowers with easy access to their home equity. Brokers can benefit from competitive compensation, along with comprehensive training and a complete marketing plan designed to help them re-engage former clients and grow their business. Hear an interview with Aidium’s Spencer Dusebout on how AI is transforming the mortgage industry, from redefining lead scoring and boosting CRM adoption to supporting, not replacing, loan officers, with a spotlight on the launch of innovative “Agents” designed to streamline workflows and enhance borrower engagement.)

7 May, 2025

Most good loan originators are keenly aware of demographics in their area. Aren’t you tired of talking about a lack of inventory and builders’ supply lagging demand? Builders report that the number of unsold homes is the highest since 2009, and in Sunbelt MSAs, new homes are facing a lot of competition from existing homes coming on to the market. AIE writes that active listings are up 34 percent year-over-year. Per the Wall Street Journal, homebuilders are increasing the use of incentives to entice buyers. Meanwhile, for those U.S. citizens who enjoy living in cramped quarters and who are tired of being squeezed by sky-high rents, city dwellers are turning to “micro-apartments” (ultra-compact units under 441 square feet) for major savings, often slashing rent by half in pricey markets like San Francisco and D.C. Western metros are leading the charge, with micro-units dominating new builds in cities like Seattle and Boston, while places like Reno and Minneapolis are quickly catching up. Meanwhile, the South and Mountain West are holding out, with cities like Enterprise, NV, offering rentals nearly twice the size of their coastal counterparts. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by HomeEQ, the fully digital HELOC from Arc Home, which empowers brokers to quickly provide borrowers with easy access to their home equity. Brokers can benefit from competitive compensation, along with comprehensive training and a complete marketing plan designed to help them re-engage former clients and grow their business. Hear an interview with Bob Simpson on the evolving anti-fraud landscape, emerging threats in 2025, best practices for risk and anti-money laundering compliance, and some unforgettable stories from the front lines fighting fraud.)

1 May, 2025

Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility

Today’s ISM Manufacturing data played the role of coalmine canary today, and although it’s not the most vigorous canary anyone’s ever seen, it also wasn’t dead. That wasn’t good for bonds today as ISM is viewed as a good early indicator at times when the market is waiting for a certain shoe to drop (in this case, tariff/policy/uncertainty impact on econ data). ISM is also often heavily traded due to its proximity to the big jobs report (in this case, the following morning). If nothing else, the market’s willingness to react to economic data once again is fully confirmed.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

241k vs 224k f’cast, 223k prev

Continued Claims

1916k vs 1860k f’cast, 1833k prev

ISM Manufacturing PMI

48.7 vs 48.0 f’cast

ISM Prices Paid

69.8 vs 70.3 f’cast, 69.4 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:33 AM MBS up just over an eighth and 10yr yields are down 3.5bps at 4.126 after claims data.

10:23 AM weaker after ISM.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.196

12:27 PM MBS now down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 6.7 bps at 4.227.

02:30 PM MBS now down a quarter point and 10yr up 7.7bps at 4.238

1 May, 2025

* **Homestead Exemption:** Reduces taxable value by up to $50,000; requires primary residency by January 1st.
* **Save Our Homes Assessment Limitation:** Caps annual assessment increases at 3% or the Consumer Price Index (CPI), whichever is lower, for homesteaded properties.
* **Portability:** Allows homeowners to transfer up to $500,000 of accumulated Save Our Homes benefit to a new Florida residence, mitigating property tax increases upon relocation.
* **Additional Exemptions:** May be available for seniors, disabled persons, veterans, and surviving spouses.
* **Assessment Challenges:** Homeowners can challenge property appraisals they believe are inaccurate by filing a petition with the Value Adjustment Board (VAB) within 25 days of the Notice of Proposed Property Taxes (TRIM notice).
* **Property Tax Rate:** Florida’s average effective property tax rate is approximately 0.84%, varying by county and municipality.
* **Tax Bill Components:** Includes taxes for the county, school district, municipalities, and special districts.
* **Payment Options:** Discounts offered for early payment: 4% in November, 3% in December, 2% in January, 1% in February.
* **Tax Certificate Sales:** Unpaid property taxes result in tax certificate sales, where investors pay the taxes and earn interest. Homeowners risk losing their property if taxes remain unpaid.

1 May, 2025

Florida Vacation Home Buying Guide:

* **High demand:** Florida is a top vacation destination, with over 137.6 million visitors in 2022.
* **Strong rental potential:** Short-term rental income can offset ownership costs. Occupancy rates vary by location, with some areas exceeding 70%.
* **Property taxes:** Florida property taxes average around 0.97% of assessed value, but can vary by county.
* **Insurance costs:** Hurricane risk leads to higher insurance premiums.
* **Financing:** Mortgage rates for vacation homes may be slightly higher than primary residences. Down payments can be 20% or more.
* **Management fees:** If using a property manager, expect fees of 20-50% of rental income.
* **HOA fees:** Many communities have Homeowner Association (HOA) fees.
* **Popular locations:** Orlando (theme parks), Miami (beaches, nightlife), and the Gulf Coast (beaches) are popular vacation home locations.
* **Tax implications:** Rental income is taxable. Consult a tax professional regarding deductions for expenses.
* **Hidden costs:** Budget for maintenance, repairs, and property taxes.

1 May, 2025

May Day… whether you celebrate today as “about” halfway between the Northern Hemisphere’s Spring equinox and Midsummer solstice associated with maypoles, or a day that commemorates the historic struggles and gains made by workers and the labor movement, mostly associated with communist Russia (which has never been our ally in 80 years), it’s up to you. So, let’s stick with the seasons. As we approach summer, many in the Western U.S. are gearing up for forest fires. Despite the growing threat of them, many Americans continue to move into high-risk areas. A LendingTree study found that 27 of the 29 metros with the highest wildfire risk had more people moving in than out, with Flagstaff, Arizona leading in both in-migration and out-migration, indicating high population turnover. Meanwhile, only Redding, California, and Wenatchee, Washington, experienced net population declines, and metros like Los Angeles and Fresno showed stable populations with modest net gains. With a lack of available homes in certain areas and certain price points, it is understandable: The rental vacancy rate ticked up to 7.1% in the first quarter, according to the Census Bureau. The homeownership rate was flat at 65.1%. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums and close more loans. Hear an interview with CreditXpert’s Mike Darne on ways lenders and originators can help borrowers improve their credit scores and qualify for more mortgage programs and products.)