30 Apr, 2025

I don’t know where April went, but we’re at the end of it, and 2025 is 1/3 over. The future sure quickly becomes the past. In the book “1984” George Orwell observed, “Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.” What does that have to with today, or with residential lending? There’s no problem if there’s no one to research it, report on it in the news, or write about it, right? Of course, weather, which is related to the world’s climate, impacts servicers, insurance companies, and lenders. In this case, the Trump Administration has fired the entire U.S. climate panel: What it means for future research? The recent decision of the Trump administration to dismiss 400 authors of the National Climate Assessment will impact climate research and sideline people from knowing the impacts of climate change. Don’t forget that, a few months ago, hundreds of federal NOAA employees, including weather forecasters, were fired as part of DOGE cuts, as reported by Fox. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums and close more loans. Hear an interview with LendingTree’s Matt Schulz on the most attractive states for out-of-state home shoppers.) Software, Products, and Services for Lenders and Brokers

28 Apr, 2025

When getting a sense of what’s happening in the bond market, it’s frequently safe to ignore the last 2 hours of trading on Friday and the first 2 on Monday. When that logic is applied today, we found this morning’s 10am yields precisely in line with Friday’s 3pm levels and MBS doing just a bit better. There was just a bit of additional improvement after the Dallas Fed Survey.

This is the only day of the week without any major data or calendar event in the morning hours. Broader market focus remains on equities and earnings season, but Treasuries get quarterly refunding estimates at 3pm–something that can occasionally have a very noticeable impact.

25 Apr, 2025

Florida mortgage rates are influenced by national trends but can vary slightly. As of late 2024, rates are fluctuating in response to inflation and Federal Reserve policy. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in Florida mirrors the national average, hovering around 7-8%, but can differ based on location and lender. Rising rates reduce affordability, impacting home sales which have seen a slight decrease in some Florida markets. Factors affecting rates include credit score, down payment size, and loan type. Refinancing activity is currently low due to higher interest rates. Expert forecasts suggest continued volatility, with potential for modest decreases depending on economic data.

23 Apr, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is currently experiencing a correction after a period of rapid growth.

* **Inventory:** Increased significantly year-over-year in many major metro areas, offering buyers more choices. Single-family inventory is up approximately 55% statewide.
* **Price Growth:** Slowing down compared to 2021-2022. Some areas are seeing price reductions. Overall median sales prices are still up, but at a much slower pace than previously recorded.
* **Interest Rates:** Remain elevated compared to recent years, impacting affordability and buyer demand. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering around 7%.
* **Days on Market:** Increasing, indicating a shift towards a more balanced market. Properties are staying on the market longer.
* **Sales Volume:** Decreasing year-over-year, suggesting reduced buyer activity. Closed sales are down nearly 20% statewide from last year.
* **Seller Strategy:** More sellers are offering concessions (e.g., closing cost assistance) to attract buyers.
* **Regional Differences:** Market conditions vary significantly across different regions and cities within Florida. Coastal areas are generally more resilient, but still impacted.
* **Investment:** Investors are becoming more cautious, seeking deals and factoring in higher financing costs.
* **Population Growth:** Florida continues to experience population growth, which supports long-term real estate demand. However, migration patterns are shifting.

23 Apr, 2025

“I won a million dollars and donated a quarter of it to charity! I now have $999999.75 left.” Money can be funny… or not. In the past, a “flight to quality” or “flight to safety” didn’t involve feckless investors searching for a place to park their money when there was turmoil in the world. It usually involved buying securities issued in the United States, like bonds or MBS. That has changed, hence gold hitting $3,400 dollars an ounce, prompting analysts to wonder if the United States’ (which in the past was the world’s strongest economy) dollar is still thought of as the world’s reserve currency. Despite U.S. stocks being down 10 percent this year, U.S. bond prices and interest rates have done little. Will we only care if it impacts our borrowers? Perhaps. The spring homebuilding season is slower than usual, with housing starts are down 11.4 percent in March month-over-month. Direct and indirect reverberations from tariffs are an element of this; while 7 percent of goods that go into residential construction are imported, economic concerns about the health of the economy are a fairly large factor in the decision whether or not to buy a new home. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite’s core products unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. Hear an interview with dataQollab’s Adam Quinones on how traders are making sense of unpredictability in markets recently.)

22 Apr, 2025

Florida mortgage rates generally mirror national trends but can be slightly higher. As of late 2024, mortgage rates in Florida are exhibiting volatility, influenced by factors like inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and economic growth. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in Florida hovers around the national average. Rate fluctuations impact housing affordability and demand. Higher rates can lead to decreased home sales and price stagnation, while lower rates can stimulate the market. Potential Florida homebuyers should monitor rate changes closely and consult with mortgage professionals for personalized advice. Local economic conditions can also influence Florida-specific mortgage rates.

21 Apr, 2025

In the 1980s I fell off my bike and hurt my knee. I’m telling you this now because we didn’t have social media then. It doesn’t take social media to know that the S&P 500 is down 10 percent for the year, but fortunately “the stock market is not the economy.” As lenders and vendors everywhere focus on people, processes, and technology in trying to help their clients, on a broader scale, things have turned south. The benchmark S&P 500 index has now notched seven negative weeks out of nine, as tariff developments continue to sour sentiment. After several, sometimes confusing, adjustments and clarifications to tariff policy in recent weeks, things were quieter on that front last week. Lenders working with builders took note of one builder’s comments. “This year’s spring selling season started slower than expected, as potential homebuyers have been more cautious due to continued affordability constraints and declining consumer confidence,” Paul Romanowski, CEO of D.R. Horton, the largest homebuilder in the country, said on the recent earnings call. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite’s core products unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. Hear an interview with Planet Home’s Mike Dubeck on managing a company through market cycles and driving business through technology investments.) Software, Products, and Services for Lenders and Brokers

17 Apr, 2025

Bonds Reprise Familiar Role as a Safe Haven Amid Renewed Rout in Stocks

You’ve seen it plenty of times so far in 2025. You’ve wondered what the heck happened to it during last week’s volatile tariff announcement aftermath. Now today, more than any other day this week, a good, old-fashioned flight to safety helped the bond market realize some decent gains. Powell’s speech at 1:30pm ET was the clear catalyst, with warnings for the economy and reassurances for the bond market’s smooth functioning. At this point, bonds are right back in line with the flat, narrow range seen between late February and late March. 

Econ Data / Events

Retail Sales 

1.4 vs 1.3 f’cast, 0.2 prev

Retail Sales Control Group

0.4 vs 0.6 f’cast, 1.3 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:42 AM sideways to slightly stronger overnight.  Minimal reaction to data.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.4 bps at 4.33

10:47 AM 5.5 UMBS are now down 1 tick (0.03) on the day and 10yr yields up 1.2bps at 4.348

01:51 PM Some volatility surrounding Powell, but holding gains, mostly.  MBS up an eighth on the day and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.308

02:40 PM Stronger during and after Powell.  MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 5.8bps at 4.278

16 Apr, 2025

“Every morning, I get hit by the same bicycle… It’s a vicious cycle.” Double meanings aside, seasons and the earth’s rotation are cyclical, and Anchorage is picking up nearly six minutes of sun a day. Did you know that the University of Alaska spans four time zones? (Zones are smaller up there.) The readership of this Commentary spans seven time zones across North America and into the Pacific, all of which have been abuzz with changes at FHFA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. It wasn’t that long ago that the “off with their heads” happened at Freddie Mac as the CEO, COO, and head of HR were fired, and Fannie’s board was changed by Bill Pulte. This month’s piece is titled, “Love Them or Leave Them? The Ongoing Saga of Fannie and Freddie.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by BeSmartee, transforming mortgage lending with Bright Connect, its native mobile app designed to boost loan officer productivity, speed up referrals, and simplify the borrower experience. Hear an interview with economist Elliot Eisenberg on the true impact of tariffs on industrialization and how people can cut through the noise in the news cycle to understand what is actually happening with both the economy and mortgage market.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders Transform the way you manage your loans held for sale. By automating funding through loan sale, OptiFunder streamlines warehouse funding to boost efficiency, reduce risk, and increase profitability like never before. Managing $10 billion per day in loans held for sale for clients, OptiFunder has grown far beyond its beginnings as a warehouse line optimization tool. Today, its comprehensive warehouse management platforms are transforming how both originators and warehouse lenders operate. By connecting key third-party systems like LOS platforms, custodians, eVaults, fraud prevention tools, investors, and more, OptiFunder consolidates your processes into one seamless, scalable solution. Whether simplifying operations or improving efficiency, OptiFunder helps you stay competitive and build stronger relationships across the lending ecosystem. We’re not just optimizing anymore: We’re redefining warehouse management. Visit optifunder.com to learn more, or connect with us at upcoming events to see how we’re driving the future of warehouse lending.

15 Apr, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is experiencing a shift.

* **Rising Interest Rates:** Impacting affordability and slowing sales. Mortgage rates have more than doubled since early 2022.
* **Inventory Increase:** Housing supply is growing, providing buyers with more options and potentially moderating price increases.
* **Price Corrections:** Some areas are seeing price reductions or slower appreciation compared to the pandemic boom. Some markets are experiencing price drops of 5-10% from peak values.
* **Migration Trends:** While still positive overall, net migration to Florida has slowed from its peak during the pandemic. Expect continued growth, but at a more moderate pace.
* **Rental Market:** Remains strong due to continued demand and limited supply in certain areas. Landlords are still seeing demand for rental properties, but rental increases are also slowing down.
* **Investment Strategies:** Opportunities may lie in identifying undervalued properties, focusing on cash flow, and adapting to changing market conditions.
* **Insurance Costs:** Skyrocketing insurance premiums are a significant concern for property owners and a major obstacle to affordability. Some homeowners are seeing insurance costs double or triple.
* **Legislative Impact:** New legislation is aimed to curb insurance fraud and offer relief.
* **Affordability Crisis:** A shortage of affordable housing continues to affect Floridians.