15 Apr, 2025

Here in San Diego at the CU:REALM event, Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp noted that consumer and business sentiment has already dropped and that has led to less spending. Less spending leads to a slower economy and lower rates, which is good, but nervousness has crept into consumer’s thinking and, given that 70 percent of U.S. GDP comes from the consumer, estimates of improving gross domestic product have vanished. Yet Cotality believes 30-year mortgage rates will chop around the 6 percent range this year and next. Another impact that the Trump Administration is having on lenders is in the regulatory arena. On today’s Regulation Central the panel of legal and regulatory experts is joined by former CFPB attorney Richard Horn. The recent filing by the CFPB to unwind the Townstone consent order has raised a lot of eyebrows and questions about fair lending enforcement going forward. Mr. Horn was one of the attorneys that represented Townstone. Other topics will include the state of fair lending, Townstone, and what in the heck are those CFPB people doing now. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by BeSmartee, transforming mortgage lending with Bright Connect, its native mobile app designed to boost loan officer productivity, speed up referrals, and simplify the borrower experience. Interview with BeSmartee’s Tim Nguyen on how evolving economic pressures, borrower expectations, and advances in AI are reshaping point-of-sale solutions, redefining the role of loan officers, and unlocking new opportunities to streamline the mortgage experience.)

15 Apr, 2025

Here in San Diego at the CU:REALM event, Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp noted that consumer and business sentiment has already dropped and that has led to less spending. Less spending leads to a slower economy and lower rates, which is good, but nervousness has crept into consumer’s thinking and, given that 70 percent of U.S. GDP comes from the consumer, estimates of improving gross domestic product have vanished. Yet Cotality believes 30-year mortgage rates will chop around the 6 percent range this year and next. Another impact that the Trump Administration is having on lenders is in the regulatory arena. On today’s Regulation Central the panel of legal and regulatory experts is joined by former CFPB attorney Richard Horn. The recent filing by the CFPB to unwind the Townstone consent order has raised a lot of eyebrows and questions about fair lending enforcement going forward. Mr. Horn was one of the attorneys that represented Townstone. Other topics will include the state of fair lending, Townstone, and what in the heck are those CFPB people doing now. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by BeSmartee, transforming mortgage lending with Bright Connect, its native mobile app designed to boost loan officer productivity, speed up referrals, and simplify the borrower experience. Interview with BeSmartee’s Tim Nguyen on how evolving economic pressures, borrower expectations, and advances in AI are reshaping point-of-sale solutions, redefining the role of loan officers, and unlocking new opportunities to streamline the mortgage experience.)

11 Apr, 2025

I don’t know if the rumor is true that Webster’s is considering adding “Tariffied” to its dictionary, but the word certainly fits the climate. Capital markets staffs who have to set rates and prices have been wondering where President Trump’s tariff philosophy is coming from, given that the market volatility has increased hedge costs. The answer is Peter Navarro, and everyone hopes that his tariff strategy pays off for the United States in the long run and is better than his legal past. In the meantime, world financial markets are roiled impacting lenders and borrowers alike. You may not care what they do in places like Armenia, Russia, or Ukraine, but it is good for lenders to know what is going on in various financial markets and these three countries are among the 11 that are dropping the U.S. dollar in international transactions. Hope is not a strategy, but let’s hope that this doesn’t move into MBS demand. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Figure. Figure is shaking up the lending world with its five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Lenders, give your borrowers an experience they will rave about. On today’s hear an interview with STRATMOR Group’s Garth Graham on potential clouds looming on the warehouse bank side of things as IMBs continue to post quarterly losses.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders “Attention all Mortgage Innovators! Join us for the blueprint in cutting edge mortgage technology at the Mortgage Innovators Conference May 7 – 8 in Huntington Beach. Our Co-Chairs Kevin Peranio, PRMG, and Ike Suri, Funding Shield welcome all California MBA lender members free of charge! Texas MBA lender members and MISMO lender members also receive complimentary registrations! For non-lenders, you can use the coupon code MIC25-SALE to receive 25% off your registration through April 25th. Thank you to our Premier Sponsors Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) and ICE Mortgage Technology. This conference will not only cover technology and product innovations in mortgage, but we’re also featuring a session of private equity and venture capital companies discussing factors that go into investing in technology. Of course, we top it off with the best party in the industry: the Innovation Deck Party! Hosted dinner, bars, entertainment, and fantastic networking. See you in May!”

11 Apr, 2025

The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real

Bonds sold off today, in spite of a very bond-friendly CPI. One reason for that is the market’s assumption that it will need to wait and see what tariffs do to inflation in the coming months. Another reason is the laundry list of reasons discussed in yesterday’s recap. A new reason added to today’s mix in the form of the passage of the budget framework in the House.  As passed, there is $1.5 trillion in spending cuts staked simply on reassurances from Johnson and Thune. Markets didn’t love the implications for Treasury issuance.  The long end of the yield curve (10yr, 30yr, etc) took most of the damage while Fed rate expectations keep the short end of the curve anchored (i.e. a 2yr Treasury won’t drift too far above medium term Fed Funds Rate expectations).  So bonds had selling to do and 2s weren’t eligible, per se. Result: bigger sell-off than we otherwise would have seen in 10s/30s.  

Econ Data / Events

Core MM CPI 

0.1 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.2 prev
unrounded 0.057

Core YY CPI

2.7 vs 3.0 f’cast, 3.1 prev

MM Headline CPI

-0.1 vs 0.1 f’cast, 0.2 prev

Jobless Claims

223k vs 223k f’cast, 219k prev

Market Movement Recap

11:19 AM Paradoxically modestly weaker after CPI data.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.34 ( up from lows of 4.29+).

12:13 PM Weakest levels.  MBS down nearly 3/8ths and 10yr up 2bps at 4.373

03:30 PM New lows, down almost half a point in MBS and up 5bps at 4.40 in 10yr yield.

6 Apr, 2025

– Florida’s real estate market is experiencing a cooling trend after a period of rapid growth.
– Inventory is increasing in many areas, giving buyers more options.
– Mortgage rates remain elevated, impacting affordability. The 30-year fixed rate is hovering near 7%.
– Price appreciation is slowing, and some markets are seeing price reductions.
– Population growth, while still positive, is moderating slightly.
– Demand remains relatively strong due to factors like migration and tourism.
– Median home prices vary widely across the state, with some markets significantly more expensive than others.
– Experts suggest that the “right time” to buy depends on individual financial circumstances and long-term investment goals.

4 Apr, 2025

Despite today being “jobs report Friday,” and despite the jobs report perennially having the power to cause big volatility for financial markets, overnight developments proved to be far more consequential.  Specifically, China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs send stocks and bond yields into a swan dive at 6am ET.  The stronger jobs report ended up having very little impact by comparison.  Even now, trade headlines regarding Trump’s call with Vietnam are doing more to move markets than econ data. Bonds are still stronger, but not as strong as they were in the early morning hours. 

Despite the push-back.  Bigger picture still looks good.

3 Apr, 2025

– Florida’s housing market is showing signs of cooling, with inventory increasing in many areas.
– Median sale prices are still elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, but price growth has slowed or even reversed in some markets.
– Mortgage rates are significantly higher than in recent years, impacting affordability and buyer demand. The average rate is currently between 6-7% for a 30-year fixed mortgage.
– Days on Market (DOM) are increasing, indicating properties are taking longer to sell.
– Sales volume is down year-over-year across many Florida markets.
– Some areas, particularly coastal regions and those popular with retirees, still experience strong demand, while others face oversupply.
– Foreclosure rates remain historically low but are gradually increasing from record lows.
– New construction continues, adding to the overall housing supply.
– Inflation and the overall economic outlook are key factors influencing the market’s trajectory.
– Rent increases have slowed considerably, presenting an alternative to buying for some.

3 Apr, 2025

While plenty of uncertainty remains over the finer points of Wednesday afternoon’s tariff announcement, markets have heard enough to brace for impact on global trade. That “bracing” is being traded in the form of a flight to safety (sell stocks, buy bonds) that began yesterday and continued overnight. 10yr yields were already close to 4.0% before this morning’s weaker ISM Services data, and have been inching closer since then. 
That said, the additional “inching” isn’t really in response to ISM. Almost all of today’s trading looks like an afterthought compared to yesterday’s initial tariff reaction and the early overnight trading. 

2 Apr, 2025

This morning’s ADP Employment data was the only potential market mover for bonds, at least as far as scheduled data is concerned.  Despite coming out a bit higher than expected, bonds opted to maintain the rally trend that had been intact since the start of European trading overnight. That resulted in moderate gains at the start of the 9:30am NYSE open, but things changed from there.  Stocks bounced higher and brough bond yields along for the ride.  The net effect is modest weakness, and no major change to the sideways grind in the bigger picture.  Things could change for better or worse this afternoon after the tariff announcement expected at 4pm ET.

2 Apr, 2025

* **Inventory:** Florida’s housing inventory remains constrained but is rising in many markets compared to 2022-2023.
* **Interest Rates:** Mortgage rates are elevated, impacting affordability and cooling buyer demand. As of late 2024, rates are hovering in the 6-7% range.
* **Price Growth:** Home price appreciation has slowed significantly compared to the peak of the pandemic boom. Some markets are experiencing price corrections.
* **Days on Market:** Homes are staying on the market longer, indicating a shift toward a more balanced market.
* **Population Growth:** Florida’s population growth is moderating but continues to outpace the national average, still supporting housing demand.
* **Foreclosure Rates:** Foreclosure rates remain historically low, not suggesting a distressed market scenario.
* **Rental Market:** Rent prices are stabilizing in many areas after a period of rapid increases, offering alternative housing options.
* **Regional Differences:** Market conditions vary significantly across Florida. Coastal areas often experience higher demand and prices than inland regions.
* **Economic Factors:** Florida’s strong economy, driven by tourism and other sectors, continues to provide a foundation for the housing market.
* **Investment Potential:** Despite market shifts, Florida real estate remains an attractive long-term investment for many due to population trends and the economy.