Overnight Weakness Gives Way to Modest Gains

In absolute terms, it was a moderately active day for bonds as 10yr yields moved inside a respectable 7bp range (4.37 to 4.30). In day-over-day terms, we’re left with merely modest gains, but no one’s complaining. Early trading raised concerns about a technical break above the 4.34 ceiling. As we discussed yesterday, such breakouts can just as often serve as cues for buyers to get back in the pool, and that appears to have been the case today. Stocks had one of their calmest sessions in recent memory and bonds didn’t exhibit any of the typical correlation.  U.S. bond traders simply showed up in line to buy some bonds, and that was that.

Econ Data / Events

Consumer Confidence 

92.9 vs 94.0 f’cast, 98.3 prev
lowest reading since July 2022
expectations index 65.2 vs 72.9 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:42 AM Weaker overnight, but stronger after 8:20am CME Open.  10yr down half a bp at 4.337 and MBS up 1 tick (.03)

12:51 PM Bond rally continues.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.3

03:49 PM Off the best levels, but still stronger.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 3bps at 4.312

* **SB 264 (Effective July 1, 2023):** Restricts property ownership by “foreign countries of concern” (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, and Syria) and their agents, particularly targeting agricultural land and property near military installations. Violation may lead to felony charges.

* **SB 1718 (Effective July 1, 2023):** Impacts real estate transactions involving undocumented immigrants. Requires businesses with 25+ employees to use E-Verify, potentially affecting the construction labor market.

* **Florida ranked #1 in U.S. for net domestic migration in 2022:** Increased demand continues to drive property values.

* **2023 Median Sales Price (Single Family Homes):** Fluctuated, showing a cooling trend after significant pandemic-era growth. However, prices remain higher than pre-pandemic levels. Source: Florida Realtors

* **Inventory Levels:** Increased inventory in many markets gives buyers more negotiating power than in previous years.

* **Disclosure Requirements:** Sellers are legally obligated to disclose known material defects affecting property value.

* **FIRPTA (Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act):** Foreign sellers are subject to withholding taxes on the sale of U.S. real estate.

* **Property Taxes:** Florida property taxes are assessed annually, and homestead exemptions offer significant tax benefits to primary residents.

* **Professional Photography Crucial:** Homes with professional photos sell 32% faster and for up to 47% more than homes with poor-quality images.
* **First Impressions Matter:** 89% of homebuyers find photos very useful during their home search. Online listings with only photos and no virtual tour are viewed only 7 seconds.
* **Timing & Lighting Key:** Optimal shooting times are often early morning or late afternoon to avoid harsh midday sunlight. Golden hour photography is especially beneficial.
* **Staging Essential:** Decluttering, depersonalizing, and highlighting key features increases appeal. 83% of staged homes sell faster than non-staged.
* **Key Photo Subjects:** Prioritize showcasing living spaces, kitchens, master bedrooms, and outdoor areas.
* **Equipment Considerations:** Wide-angle lenses (10-22mm for crop sensors, 16-35mm for full-frame) are crucial for capturing room interiors. Tripods ensure sharp images, especially in low light.
* **Photo Count:** Listings with at least 20 high-quality photos are more likely to attract buyer attention.
* **Exterior Appeal:** Showcase curb appeal with well-maintained landscaping and attractive architectural details.
* **Virtual Tours/Drone Footage:** Implementing virtual tours or drone footage can significantly boost buyer engagement, especially for higher-priced properties.
* **Florida-Specific Elements:** Highlight outdoor living spaces (pools, patios, lanais) and waterfront views if applicable to capture the Florida lifestyle.