Home Loan – Page 17 – gopadron.com

19 Sep, 2025

Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Florida Real Estate: Is Now The Right Time To Buy Or Sell?

Florida’s real estate market is currently experiencing a shift. Inventory levels are rising in many metro areas, offering buyers more choices. Median home prices in Florida have seen significant increases in recent years, but price growth is slowing, and some areas are experiencing price reductions. Mortgage rates are elevated compared to recent years, impacting affordability for buyers. Sales volume is down year-over-year in many markets, indicating a cooling demand. Foreclosure rates are still relatively low but have begun to gradually increase from historic lows. The number of days properties stay on the market has increased, suggesting a less competitive environment than in the past. Population growth in Florida, while still positive, has moderated, potentially affecting long-term demand. Insurance costs remain a significant concern for Florida homeowners, impacting overall housing affordability and buyer decisions.

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19 Sep, 2025

Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Mortgage Refinance Demand Explodes, Then Rates Surge: Florida Homebuyers Beware

What a difference a week makes for mortgage application demand. As we noted last week, mortgage rates were already trending lower than those captured in the weekly survey numbers from MBA and Freddie Mac. The expectation was that refinance activity would be surging in this week’s data. That turns out to have been an understatement. For the first time in several years, we have to take our chart of MBA’s refinance applications all the way back to 2022 in order to provide context for the levels achieved this week. Until now, September 2024 set the high water mark. That’s a whopping 58% increase in refi demand versus last week, and it’s 70% higher than the same week one year ago. The Purchase Index rose only 3%, but that leaves it near the best levels since early 2023. Overall applications were up 29.7%, the 2nd biggest jump since the last week of 2022, and in outright terms, application activity rose by the highest amount since July 2021! There are already clouds on the horizon, unfortunately. On the same day these numbers were released, rates began moving sharply higher in response to this week’s Fed announcement (why?). The rate spike continued on Thursday in response to economic data. All told, rates are easily back up to the highest levels since before the September 5th jobs report. Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist noted “homeowners with larger loans jumped first, as the average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of our survey.”

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18 Sep, 2025

Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Prime Rate Drops to 7.25% Amid Fed Rate Cut Debate

JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Bank of America, PNC Bank, N.A. and others announced a decrease in its prime lending rate to 7.25 percent, effective today, Sept. 18. As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the overnight Fed Funds rate by .250. Stephen Miran, who was sworn in just before the two-day policy meeting and is remaining a White House employee for the duration of his stint at the Fed (much to the concern of those wanting an independent Federal Reserve) was the lone dissent among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants, instead favoring a 50-basis-point reduction. Mr. Miran has echoed President Trump’s criticisms of the central bank and called for cheaper borrowing rates. “Rob, I heard a presenter saying that U.S. citizens are saving no money whatsoever. What are you hearing?” I would say that statement is misleading and sensationalist and generalized. Savings vary through different periods of our lives, and different classes save differently. The Fed has a nice graph showing that, aside from COVID when we were hoarding toilet paper and watching Tiger King five years ago, we’re around 5 percent, which is roughly where we’ve been historically. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by CreditXpert. The all-new credit optimization platform that helps you close more loans. CreditXpert is committed to making homeownership more accessible and affordable for ALL. Today’s features an interview with Indecomm’s Rajan Nair on the risks of falling behind in innovation, whether AG(entic)I hype distracts from present issues, and the growing concern over technology power being concentrated in the hands of a few.)

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18 Sep, 2025

Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Powell’s Presser Rattles Mortgage Rates: Florida Homebuyers, Prepare for Volatility

Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off

Of today’s Fed events (rate announcement, dot plot, and press conference), it was the dots that were most likely to cause the biggest reaction. That proved to be the case, but only for the 30 minutes leading up to Powell’s presser. Bonds had already begun pushing back against the rally by the time Powell started fielding questions. Several of his responses added fuel to the fire. In not so many words, Powell said the dots don’t mean the Fed is cutting twice more in 2024 and that the Fed will instead be taking things meeting by meeting as they digest incoming econ data. While that’s very standard for the Fed playbook, it didn’t convey the level of concern for the economy (bullish for rates) that the market was priced for. The reversal seems extreme in the short term due to the dot-driven rally, but yields closed no higher than they did last Tuesday–2 days after the jobs report rally that took rates to their lowest levels since October.

Econ Data / Events

Building Permits (Aug)

1.312M vs 1.37M f’cast, 1.362M prev

Housing starts number mm (Aug)

1.307M vs 1.37M f’cast, 1.428M prev

Market Movement Recap

09:48 AM Modestly stronger overnight and little-changed so far this morning. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.027

11:34 AM Just barely weaker now. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.035

02:06 PM Stronger after the dot plot. MBS up just over an eighth and 10yr down 3.3bps at 3.998

02:40 PM MBS now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day. 10yr yields are up 2.3bps at 4.053

02:56 PM MBS now down a quarter point on the day and 10yr up 5bps at 4.08

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17 Sep, 2025

Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Powell’s Press Conference: Florida Mortgage Rates React to Fed’s Hawkish Stance

Powell Press Conference Trumps The Dots, Sparking Moderate Sell-Off

Econ Data / Events

Building Permits (Aug)

1.312M vs 1.37M f’cast, 1.362M prev

Housing starts number mm (Aug)

1.307M vs 1.37M f’cast, 1.428M prev

Market Movement Recap

09:48 AM Modestly stronger overnight and little-changed so far this morning. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.027

11:34 AM Just barely weaker now. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.035

02:06 PM Stronger after the dot plot. MBS up just over an eighth and 10yr down 3.3bps at 3.998

02:40 PM MBS now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day. 10yr yields are up 2.3bps at 4.053

02:56 PM MBS now down a quarter point on the day and 10yr up 5bps at 4.08

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17 Sep, 2025

Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Fed Rate Cut: Florida Housing Market Impact and Mortgage Opportunities

Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen. In support of its goals, goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, the Committee decided to maintain the to lower the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 4 to 4‑1/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

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15 Sep, 2025

Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Florida Real Estate Outlook: Is Now The Right Time To Buy?

Florida’s real estate market is currently facing a complex situation marked by high prices and fluctuating demand. Inventory is increasing in many areas but remains below historical averages. Interest rates significantly impact affordability, and although rates have stabilized, they remain elevated compared to recent years. Population growth, while still positive, has slowed compared to the pandemic peak. The median sales price for existing single-family homes varies widely across the state, with some metropolitan areas experiencing price corrections while others remain relatively stable. Rising insurance costs and property taxes contribute to the overall cost of homeownership, further impacting affordability. Investor activity has decreased, shifting the market dynamic toward more traditional owner-occupant buyers.

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15 Sep, 2025

Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Federal Reserve Expected to Cut Rates: What Florida Buyers Need Know

“Someone posted that they had just made synonym buns. I replied, ‘You mean just like the ones that grammar used to make?’ I am now blocked.” That was sent to me by an economist; yes, they have senses of humor. Did you know that the Federal Reserve Board employs more than 500 researchers, including more than 400 Ph.D. economists, who represent an exceptionally diverse range of interests and specific areas of expertise? (I wonder if anyone yells, “Is there a doctor in the house?” at staff meetings.) This week’s focus will be almost entirely on the Federal Reserve. The central bank’s monetary policy committee will deliver its seventh interest rate decision of the year on Wednesday. The Fed has stubbornly held interest rates steady since ending 2024 with a series of cuts, but now with the labor market showing continued signs of cooling and inflation remaining sticky, it is a sure thing that the central bank will restart its policy easing process and drop overnight Fed Funds by 25 basis points, which in turn should move the discount rate lower (the rate at which the Federal Reserve lends money to financial institutions, including commercial banks, thrifts and credit unions). (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by CreditXpert. The all-new credit optimization platform that helps you close more loans. CreditXpert is committed to making homeownership more accessible and affordable for ALL. Today’s features an interview with Potomac Consulting’s Dan Varroney on why the Federal Reserve should cut rates 50-basis points this week due to weakening labor markets and recent inflation data.)

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14 Sep, 2025

Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Florida Mortgage Rates: Are They Rising? What Homebuyers Need to Know

Florida mortgage rates generally follow national trends but can be slightly higher. As of late 2023 and early 2024, rates are fluctuating, influenced by Federal Reserve policy and economic indicators. 30-year fixed mortgage rates in Florida ranged from 6.5% to 7.5% during this period. Homebuyers should shop around for the best rates from multiple lenders, consider adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) if planning a short-term stay, and improve their credit score to secure lower interest rates. Rising rates impact affordability, potentially leading to lower demand and price stabilization, but specific local market conditions vary across Florida. Rising rates can increase monthly payments by hundreds of dollars for the average mortgage.

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12 Sep, 2025

Jonathan Padron Home Loan

Florida Real Estate: What’s Next? Expert Market Analysis You Need

Florida’s real estate market faces shifting dynamics. Inventory is rising in many markets, slowing price appreciation. Interest rates impact affordability, tempering demand. Migration patterns, while still positive, are moderating compared to peak pandemic levels.

* **Inventory:** Increased significantly in many major metro areas (e.g., some cities see a 50%+ increase YOY).
* **Price Growth:** Slower price appreciation expected; some markets may see price corrections. Median sales prices may remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic, however.
* **Interest Rates:** High interest rates continue to be a headwind for buyers, affecting affordability.
* **Migration:** Florida’s population growth continues, but at a slower pace than 2020-2022.
* **Luxury Market:** While still active, the luxury market may experience increased negotiation power for buyers due to increased inventory.
* **Insurance Costs:** Rising insurance premiums remain a significant concern impacting affordability and buyer decisions.
* **Rental Market:** Rental rates may stabilize or see slight decreases in some areas due to increased supply of apartments and single-family rentals.

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Category: Home Loan

Florida Real Estate: Is Now The Right Time To Buy Or Sell?

Mortgage Refinance Demand Explodes, Then Rates Surge: Florida Homebuyers Beware

Prime Rate Drops to 7.25% Amid Fed Rate Cut Debate

Powell’s Presser Rattles Mortgage Rates: Florida Homebuyers, Prepare for Volatility

Powell’s Press Conference: Florida Mortgage Rates React to Fed’s Hawkish Stance

Fed Rate Cut: Florida Housing Market Impact and Mortgage Opportunities

Florida Real Estate Outlook: Is Now The Right Time To Buy?

Federal Reserve Expected to Cut Rates: What Florida Buyers Need Know

Florida Mortgage Rates: Are They Rising? What Homebuyers Need to Know

Florida Real Estate: What’s Next? Expert Market Analysis You Need

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