11 Sep, 2025

Florida property values are assessed by County Property Appraisers, who use mass appraisal techniques, primarily the market (sales comparison), cost, and income approaches. Accuracy can vary significantly.

* **Sales Comparison Approach:** Relies on recent sales of comparable properties. Accuracy is best in homogenous neighborhoods with frequent sales.
* **Cost Approach:** Estimates value based on the cost to replace the property, minus depreciation. Often used for unique or newer properties.
* **Income Approach:** Used for income-producing properties, estimating value based on net operating income (NOI).

**Key Considerations impacting accuracy:**

* **Mass Appraisal Limitations:** Valuation of large numbers of properties simultaneously introduces inherent inaccuracies compared to individual appraisals.
* **Homestead Exemption:** Limits assessment increases to 3% annually, potentially creating a significant discrepancy between assessed and market value over time.
* **Market Volatility:** Rapid market changes (booms/busts) can quickly render assessed values outdated.
* **Neighborhood Specificity:** Broad averaging of comparable sales can lead to inaccuracies if neighborhood characteristics are not finely tuned.
* **Data Quality:** Errors in property data (size, features, condition) used in the valuation models impact accuracy.
* **Assessment Ratio:** The percentage of market value used for assessment. Florida law requires 100% for most properties. Discrepancies may arise.
* **Appeal Process:** Taxpayers have the right to appeal their assessed value if they believe it’s inaccurate.
* **Median Sale Price increase:** In 2022, Florida saw median sale price increases of over 20% in some counties, potentially leading to assessment lags.

11 Sep, 2025

It’s an interesting morning for economic data and the bond market’s reaction.  At face value, CPI was mostly in line with forecasts, but unrounded numbers were a bit hot (i.e. core monthly CPI was 0.346%, almost high enough to make for a 0.4 vs 0.3 reading). Additionally, monthly headline inflation was 0.4 vs 0.3. These numbers, in and of themselves, wouldn’t seem to suggest a bond rally.  At the same moment, Jobless Claims printed at 263k vs a 235k forecast–the highest reading since 2021. The initial conclusion is that there is enough labor market concern to offset still-elevated inflation, but a drop in supercore inflation (excludes food/energy/housing) may be the bigger factor.  Last month’s supercore, per Bloomberg, was 0.481.  This month, it fell to 0.330. This basically means inflation is standing aside and allowing the Fed to focus on the weaker labor market–a conclusion that’s far more informed by the last jobs report than today’s jobless claims.

10 Sep, 2025

Florida property values are influenced by factors like location, size, condition, age, and recent sales of comparable properties (comps). Accurately estimating requires considering both automated valuation models (AVMs) and professional appraisals. AVMs, like Zillow’s Zestimate, provide an initial range but can deviate significantly from actual market value; median error rates vary. Professional appraisals offer the most accurate estimate, costing typically $300-$500. Florida’s real estate market is dynamic; waterfront properties command premiums. Interest rate fluctuations and inflation influence affordability and demand. Homestead exemptions can reduce property tax burdens. Property taxes are calculated based on assessed value, factoring in millage rates. Local market conditions and community developments play a significant role in property values.

10 Sep, 2025

“Rob, I hate it when mom and dad fight. Will this Pulte/Bessent, FHFA/Treasury tussle impact mortgage rates?” Probably not; it hasn’t so far. Director Pulte is certainly in the news. Occupancy isn’t a partisan issue, right?! FHFA Director Pulte, who continues to point out potential fraud by Fed. Governor Lisa Cook (who a Federal judge ruled yesterday could stay in her post), has two close relatives who have declared the same owner-occupied status on two homes in two different states! Don’t blame me: read about it in CNBC and Reuters. “Mark and Julie Pulte, the father and stepmother of Bill Pulte, President Donald Trump’s appointee as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, since 2020 have claimed so-called ‘homestead exemptions’ for residences in wealthy neighborhoods in both Michigan and Florida…” What about news closer to regular lending? Chase launched some publicity with a limited-time “mortgage rate refinance sale.” The Chase promotion is on rate-and-term and cash-out refinances through Sunday, Sept. 21. Customers must lock in their refinancing rate during this period to earn the discount. How much of a discount? According to Chase, “Discounts will vary by mortgage product and location.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Indecomm. Streamlining operations with the genius blend of automation, AI, and services. Achieve practical digital transformation and real operational impact with Indecomm’s purpose-built mortgage solutions. Hear an interview with MCT’s Phil Rasori on shifting coverage in response to policy and economic changes, to the expansion of ARM and non-QM products, the growing role of AI in hedging and analytics, evolving tech freeing up staff for strategic work, and the rising demands placed on modern capital markets departments.)

9 Sep, 2025

Tomorrow I head from Boise to Jackson for the Mississippi Mortgage Banker’s Fall Conference. Certainly a topic in my email in-box and at events is how Freddie and Fannie’s market share is ebbing, and at noon PT, 3PM ET, Capital Markets Wrap (presented by Polly) will explore if F&F are fading from prominence amid the rise of alternative products, whether the market is getting ahead of itself in expecting mortgage rates to come down and what that means for lenders and investors, take a look at ARM demand and pricing, and discuss how hedging strategies shift during Fed easing cycles. At “the top of the funnel,” all of the news about occupancy fraud inspired attorney and Mortgage Musings author Brian Levy to provide his thoughts about the nuances of the topic in his latest Mortgage Musing. Sign up here to receive Levy’s Musings delivered directly to your email or you can find it on the Chrisman Commentary’s Thought Leadership page. And while we’re at the “top of the funnel,” according to Curinos’ new proprietary application index, refinances increased 47 percent in August while the purchase index decreased 2 percent for August as a whole. August 2025 funded mortgage volume decreased 4% YoY and decreased 6% MoM. Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures. We drill into this data further here. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Indecomm. Streamlining operations with the genius blend of automation, AI, and services. Achieve practical digital transformation and real operational impact with Indecomm’s purpose-built mortgage solutions. Hear an interview with Call Equity’s Mel Lund on how operations and sales can assist one another to drive origination volume.)

5 Sep, 2025

It’s a well-known fact that the monthly jobs report is more capable of causing big reactions in rates than any other economic data. It happened last month in grand fashion, and it is happening again this morning.  Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which is a count of new jobs created, came in at a mere 22k for August versus a median forecast of 75k. This is actually not the biggest miss when it comes to NFP, but it’s big enough to spark a reaction in the bond market. In general, weaker jobs numbers prompt investors to buy bonds. When investors buy bonds, the price of those bonds goes up. When bond prices go up, rates go down. Today’s net effect is an average top tier 30yr fixed rate drop from 6.45% yesterday to 6.29% today. This is back in the same range as the low rates in the Fall of 2024. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

2 Sep, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is currently experiencing a correction after a period of rapid growth. Inventory is increasing, offering buyers more choices compared to the recent past.

* **Median Home Prices:** Increased significantly over the past few years but are now showing signs of stabilization or slight declines in some areas. Zillow’s data indicates price reductions.

* **Inventory:** Inventory levels have been rising, providing more negotiating power for buyers. Active listings are up year-over-year in many Florida markets.

* **Interest Rates:** Mortgage rates have fluctuated, influencing affordability. Higher interest rates can impact monthly payments and overall buying power.

* **Sales Volume:** Sales volume has decreased compared to the peak of the market, reflecting a cooling demand.

* **Days on Market:** Properties are staying on the market longer, indicating a shift away from the frenzied buying activity of the previous years.

* **Regional Variations:** The market varies significantly across the state. Coastal areas and major cities may still be more competitive than inland or rural regions. Factors impacting prices are tourism, migration, and local economies.

* **Migration:** Florida continues to experience population growth, though the rate may be slowing. Net migration is still a factor influencing housing demand.

30 Aug, 2025

Florida’s real estate market is showing signs of cooling but remains complex. Inventory is rising from historic lows, offering more options for buyers, but still below pre-pandemic levels in many areas.

* **Median home prices:** Remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, but price growth has slowed significantly or even seen slight decreases in some regions. Specific numbers vary widely based on location (e.g., South Florida vs. Central Florida).
* **Interest rates:** Elevated interest rates impact affordability and buyer demand, putting downward pressure on prices. Current mortgage rates hovering around 7-8% significantly increase monthly payments compared to the 3% rates seen in 2021.
* **Days on Market:** Homes are staying on the market longer, indicating less urgency among buyers.
* **Inventory:** Increasing, offering more choices for buyers. The Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) is a key indicator to watch; a balanced market typically has 5-6 months’ supply.
* **Migration:** Florida continues to attract new residents, particularly from other states, but the influx has slowed compared to the peak of the pandemic.
* **Foreclosure Rates:** Remain low compared to historical averages, but slightly increasing, indicating potential distress in the market.
* **Rental Market:** Rental rates are stabilizing or decreasing in some areas after significant increases. This influences investment property considerations.
* **Seller Strategy:** Price reductions are becoming more common, and sellers may need to offer concessions to attract buyers.

29 Aug, 2025

There are two big picture inflation reports in US that address consumer prices: CPI and PCE. Of the two, PCE is broader and more highly regarded by policymakers. The downside is that it comes out about 2 weeks later for the same month of price data. PCE is also easier to forecast due to other inflation data being out earlier in the month. As such, it’s less common to see big deviations from forecasts and today was no exception with all monthly and annual numbers perfectly hitting expectations. Unsurprisingly, bonds haven’t really changed from opening levels.

One of the only interesting developments (debatably, perhaps) is that the “supercore” reading (core services inflation excluding housing) was 0.1% lower in PCE versus the figures reported by bloomberg that were extrapolated from CPI 2 weeks ago. Supercore is still slightly elevated and has been trending higher, but 0.390 is a lot better than 0.481 (reported with CPI) when it comes to inflation staying out of the way of a Fed rate cut.